Besides Super Bowl Sunday, obviously, conference championship Sunday is the best Sunday of the NFL season. It’s two championship games with four teams playing for a trip to the greatest game in the history of Western Civilization: the Super Bowl.
The home team has won the last 10 conference championship games, so home field advantage clearly is a factor in these games. That makes sense because it’s the final home game a team’s fans get to see with the chance of getting to celebrate a trip to the Super Bowl with their team. Plus, as we saw twice with the Seahawks twice and the Patriots last year, a double-digit deficit is not insurmountable to overcome in these games especially for a home team. As soon as they score to cut into the deficit, the home crowd starts to rally behind the team making life difficult for the road team. Home teams including Philadelphia (2017), Atlanta (2016), Carolina (2015) and New England (2014 and 2016) have also dominated in conference championship games the last five years.
I remember, though, when road teams would manage to quiet the opposing home crowd and win a trip to the Super Bowl, and with the 10 straight home team wins on conference championship Sunday, I would like to see a road team win (even though I am rooting for the Saints and Chiefs today). In fact, before 2013 at least one road team won on conference championship Sunday eight times spanning 2002 to 2012.
Four-down territory: Four storylines going into today
1. All four teams are immensely talented, and the two most talented teams produced the best game of the season back on Nov. 19, 2018: Kansas City and Los Angeles. I’m interested in seeing if these two teams, who I view as underdogs, can show that the NFL has become the league where the most talent wins, particularly on offense. We saw it last year with the Eagles offense shredding Matt Patricia and the Patriots defense in the Super Bowl, so that happening again this year could officially signify a new era as to what kind of team reaches and wins the Super Bowl.
2. With the talent on offense for all four teams, it will be interesting to see if one of the defenses makes an impact. All four teams have at least one defensive player that can make a play that can play a large role in the outcome of the game, so on a day where both games could potentially be high-scoring it will be interesting to see which, if any, defense makes a play at a critical moment.
3. Rams-Saints big storyline: The week nine regular-season matchup lived up every bit to the hype leading up to it. Yes the Saints were the better team, but I have to give the Rams credit for digging themselves out of a 35-17 halftime deficit to tie the game in the second half in the Superdome. Even though the Rams, to me, are the more talented team going into the game, how will they fare this time around against the Saints without wide receiver Cooper Kupp? Kupp had five receptions, 89 yards and a touchdown in the week nine game, part of a 391-yard performance for quarterback Jared Goff. Goff hasn’t been as prolific since Kupp tore his ACL in week 10, so it will be interesting to see the impact of Kupp’s void if this game gets into a shootout.
4. Patriots-Chiefs biggest storyline: It’s not so much within the matchup as far as personnel ans x’s and o’s, but rather about if the outcome will be more of the same or potentially a changing of the guard in the AFC. The Tom Brady-Patrick Mahomes II quarterback matchup is one of historic greatness vs. I don’t even know how to describe Mahomes because he’s so good at such a young age. I thought the game against the Patriots in week six of the regular season would be his coming down to earth game, so to speak. The first half proved to be that way, but the second half was the validation that Mahomes really is something special. Now he and the Chiefs have a chance to take down the giant of not just the AFC, but the entire NFL.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints 3 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Chris Myers)
I have believed since week eight that the Saints are the best team in the NFL. They have been my pick to win the Super Bowl since then, and their regular-season victory over the Rams made that pick look pretty good. What’s worth noting about that regular-season game is I feel like it came at a time where the Rams had already peaked and the Saints were just then peaking. Yes, the Rams went on to win that crazy 54-51 game against the Chiefs two weeks later, but the Saints started a streak of three games scoring 45, 51 and 48 points respectively with their win over the Rams. Those three games were in the back-end of a 10-game winning streak.
Even though the Saints only scored 10, 25, 12 and 31 points in the four games following their 10-game winning streak, they still went 3-1 in those games in locking down home-field advantage in the NFC. Being able to win those games in addition to the shootouts is why I still viewed them as the best team in the NFC. Plus, having home-field advantage in the playoffs in the Superdome is an extreme advantage in of itself.
However, after last week I don’t feel the same about the Saints, especially going into this matchup against the Rams. Los Angeles has more talent than New Orleans, and after what Rams wide receiver Robert Woods said about the crowd in New Orleans not having an impact- it absolutely will, come on now!- that tells me the Rams believe they can win, at least an integral part to their offense does. The Saints were very fortunate to have beaten Philadelphia last week, whereas the Rams impressed me with their ability to run the ball straight down Dallas’s throats and their ability to contain the beast that is Ezekiel Elliott. It wasn’t as electrifying as some of thier offensive outputs have been this season, but it was a performance executed to perfection. Add in Saints defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and wide receiver Keith Kirkwood not playing this week and I think this is all adding up to a Rams victory.
Score prediction: Rams 31 Saints 28
New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs 6:40 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Evan Washburn, Jay Feeley)
I cannot wait for this game. The regular-season game felt like a playoff game, maybe even a Super Bowl. This game is going to feel like more than that, whatever that is. I haven’t listened to one analyst talk about x’s and o’s, because I’m so focused on the fact that it’s Brady-Mahomes and what’s at stake.
It’s no shock, to me, that New England is in this game despite a 1-2 start and a seemingly subpar regular-season by their standards. Plus, in his last two games Brady has looked like his old self and his regular-season stats aren’t as spotty as one might think solely based on how he looked at some points during the season. Come playoff time, one thing I know for sure is that Belichick, Brady and the Patriots will how up.
Kansas City is the better team in this matchup. You can even argue they were the better team in the regular-season game against the Patriots. They have more talent, and will have raucous Arrowhead Stadium behind them. Even though they have a Super Bowl championship, this is their first time hosting the AFC Championship game in franchise history (the AFC wasn’t around when they won Super Bowl IV).
The Patriots aren’t used to playing on the road in the playoffs. The last time they won a road playoff game was in 2006 and the last time they won the AFC Championship on the road was in 2004. However, I swore to myself after Super Bowl LI that I would NEVER EVER pick against Tom Brady in the playoffs. The only way the Chiefs win this game is if the lunar eclipse that’s expected to happen during the game causes the Chiefs to eclipse the Patriots dynasty, and if you’re going “what are you talking about?” here you go. https://wdef.com/2019/01/17/rare-super-blood-wolf-moon-lunar-eclipse-will-occur-when-patriots-chiefs-play-in-afc-championship-game/
Score Prediction: Patriots 38 Chiefs 35
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 