The Cincinnati Reds enter play this week at 29-35. Not bad considering what their records have been on the previous four June 11ths. Those four years constituted “the rebuild” of this franchise.
Reds Records on June 11th from 2015-2018
2018: 23-43 2017: 29-33 2016: 24-38 2015: 27-32
The 2015 and 2017 records through June 10th are not overly dismal, but anything below .500, and, quite frankly, anything lower than first place is below the expectations as explained by Joey Votto on Fox Sports Ohio following the Reds victory over the Phillies last Sunday.
As much as Votto has struggled throughout the season, what he said after Sunday’s win over the Phillies in Philadelphia provided, for me at least, a sense that he is still the ultimate leader on this team. Oh, by the way, he is hitting .426 with a home run and 6 RBIs since May 24. Beginning on May 24th was a three-game series at the Chicago Cubs, and on that day the Reds won in dramatic fashion. After trailing 4-1 through five innings, the Reds rallied to win 6-5 on a game-winning, 9th inning two-run home run by third baseman Eugenio Suarez.
But the thing about that win that stands out to me, just like it may with a lot of other Reds fans, is that they did not really build on it. They dropped the next game at the Cubs, albeit a hard-fought one, 8-6. This has been a big-picture-theme for the Reds this season: post an impressive win, only to follow it up with a disappointing loss to kill any chance of generating momentum.
Let’s break down the last four weeks of the regular-season into two two-week periods. Why? Well, the first two weeks saw the Reds play four series against three teams that know a thing or two about playing winning baseball, especially in recent years: the Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers. Eleven games against those three teams; my thought was we were going to find out a lot about this team during that stretch.
The Reds went 6-5 over that 11-game, two-week stretch against some of the best teams in the National League. Considering how this franchise performed from 2015-2018, that was a Bob Seger-like page turned. It also set them up for a chance to maybe, just maybe, get back to .500 for the first time since April Fool’s Day- that is not a prank- with home series against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals the following week.
As the story goes most of the time here in Cincinnati sports, though, instead of at the very least a winning homestand to start the two-week stretch that just ended, the Reds promptly posted a 3-4 record. Two teams the Reds should have went at least 5-2 against and they end up hurting themselves with a losing homestand. It started with losing the opener against the Pirates with Luis Castillo on the mound and ended with getting chewed up like a Hall & Oates-esque Man Eater by Nationals right-handed pitcher Max Sherzer. The three-time Cy Young Award winner struck out 15 Reds hitters in eight innings of work. Nationals pitchers stuck out 16 combined Reds hitters in that game, and only one of the other 11 outs was recorded on the ground.
Sherzer is still one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball, but that is not an excuse for the Reds hitters to have gone out and at least valiantly attempt to produce some offense in hopes of winning a series against a team they should have quite honestly swept. Plus, the Nationals bull pen came into the series with the worst ERA in the MLB and the Reds could not do anything against it in both of the final games of the series. That came after only mustering a split in the previous series with the Pirates.
The underachieving from that week carried over into last week’s road trip to St. Louis and Philadelphia that saw the Reds go 2-3. After a 4-1 win over the Cardinals in the series opener that saw Luis Castillo give up just two hits though six innings, the Reds dropped the series finale at the Cardinals, 3-1, and the first two games to the Phillies. That means over the last two weeks, the Reds went 5-7 after a 6-5 stretch in the two weeks prior against, arguably, the best three teams in the National League.
My point is when you break down the last four weeks, roughly one month, into two two-week segments, it is like the Reds took a step forward but then took two steps back. They held their own against the NL’s best, but then, it felt like, left some wins on the table the last two weeks. They are not going to have even a shot at winning the division if they keep getting to a high rung on the ladder but then falling back down towards the bottom. Going 6-5 over two weeks against three really good teams followed by 5-7 over the next two against teams the Reds should have had increased success against is not going to help a team that dug themselves a substantial hole by starting the season 1-8. One step forward followed by two steps back is not enough to climb out of that hole and up the ladder if this team is to play meaningful baseball late in the season.
Speaking of two weeks, the next two weeks are no easy-cooking with series against four teams that all have winning records: the Cleveland Indians, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers. Even a record of 7-5 over the next four series would only but them at 36-40. That’s what a 1-8 start can do to a team; it decreases the margin for error even against the elite teams in the major leagues. There is going to come a time where the Reds are going to have to just go out on the field and win against the best teams in Major League Baseball.
Contending teams find a way to consistently win. It doesn’t matter who they are playing, they just find a way. The Reds can no longer tease us by moving to within a few games of .500 or pull off an important win and then not build on it. They need to follow up an encouraging two weeks by channeling the small successes into a large generation of momentum.
There is still a lot of the season left, and this team has a core of players that comprise what should be a good team with contending aspirations. The first two weeks of the last month were promising, but they followed it up with two frustrating weeks going 0-3-1 in the four series spanning from Memorial Day through last Sunday. Their play has not been as bad as it was from 2015-2018, but the 1-8 start has made all of what they have done since then, a 28-27 record, not enough. If the Reds are going to have any shot at contending for a wild card or NL Central title, they need to start winning consistently now. That may not be easy through the next four series on the schedule, but playing against those teams is not an excuse to put a product on the field that wins games and starts playing like a team contending for something meaningful.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 