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Week 16 NFL Picks

Christmas Day: Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints – 4:30 p.m. on FOX and NFL Network (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink) Radio: Westwood One (Scott Graham, Ross Tucker)

These two teams have played two playoff thrillers in the last three years, both of which the Vikings won on the last play of the game. While the Saints will be in the playoffs for a fourth consecutive season, the Vikings are playing for their playoff lives where if they lose Friday they’re eliminated from contention.

With all that said, the Saints have stalled the previous two weeks, particularly on defense. They made Eagles rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts look like the second coming of Lamar Jackson two weeks ago and got diced up by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this past Sunday. And with the uncertainty surrounding Drew Brees in his return after being out with fractured ribs, their defense will need to return to the form that was on the field in leading them to nine straight wins prior to the last two weeks.

If this were a normal year, I think New Orleans would blow Minnesota out playing in front of 70,000 raucous fans in the Superdome. But with attendance being limited to just families of the players, I think this game will be close but one that, ultimately, the Saints will pull out in the end.

Game Pick: Saints 27 Vikings 24

Saturday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions – 1 p.m. on NFL Network (Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth, Lindsay Czarniak) Radio: Westwood One

Tampa Bay may be peaking at the right time with two straight wins, but I’m still not impressed. Their offense isn’t as lethal as I thought it would be coming into this season, and that’s at least been the case since the beginning of November. Since my birth month began, they lost three out of four- all at home- to teams that are all going to be in the playoffs, and Tom Brady was shaky, even erratic. Even in their last two wins, they include an uninspiring win against Minnesota and a game where they had to come from behind 17-0 against the Falcons.

All that said, is Tampa Bay that vulnerable that I think Detroit can beat them on Saturday? Considering the Lions will be without five assistant coaches due to COVID-19 protocols, refer to my game pick.

Game Pick: Buccaneers 31 Lions 17

Saturday: San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals – 4:30 p.m. on Prime Video (Andrew Catalon, James Lofton, Sherree Burruss)

This is a weird game. The 49ers are the road team, yet they are playing in their temporary home stadium due to the ban on contact sports in Santa Clara County.

Arizona has seemingly rediscovered their mojo they possessed when they surged to a 6-3 record and the top of the NFC West. Now they look to carry that mojo into a run at the playoffs, but they’ll have to hold off a pesky 49ers team in a rivalry that has been hotly contested recently.

Game Pick: Cardinals 27 49ers 24

Saturday: Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders – 8:15 p.m. on NFL Network (Joe Davis, Kurt Warner, Melissa Stark)

This is an ultimate trap game for the Miami Dolphins. They just came off a win over New England in which they eliminated them from playoff contention, and now they head out west on a short week to face a Raiders team that is reeling right now having lost two straight home games.

The Raiders are a well-coached team and they may be the more talented team. Better quarterback, better arsenal of weapons. But that’s just on offense. Miami’s defense is as good as any in the NFL. Combine that with the job head coach Brian Flores has done, I think Miami ekes one out Saturday night.

Game pick: Dolphins 27 Raiders 24

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers – 1 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson)

This game could go either way. Pittsburgh is free falling on a three-game losing streak. Their defense has still been competent, but their offense is seemingly nonexistent. Meanwhile the Colts may be catching fire at the right time. They’re on a three-game winning streak and they’re winning games by pounding the run game down opponents’ throats. But in a game that could go either way, I’ll pick the home team by a split decision.

Game Pick: Steelers 20 Colts 17

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks – 4:25 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews)

What happened to the Rams last week against the Jets? Like, what was that? In the middle of a playoff race you lose to an 0-13 team that had no business winning that game? Like, what?

Meanwhile, Seattle, despite Russell Wilson and the offense appearing to be in a rut, have an opportunity on Sunday to clinch their first NFC West title in six years.

These two teams have played several close games over the years, and the home team usually has the upper end in this series.

Game Pick: Seahawks 31 Rams 24

Sunday Night Football: Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya) Radio: Westwood One

I can’t wait for this game. This matchup only occurs once every four years, and this one has the makings of a potential classic. There are premier players across the board from Aaron Rodgers to Derrick Henry, and these two teams both have aspirations of a deep playoff run.

Game pick: Packers 38 Titans 28

Monday Night Football: Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – 8:15 p.m. on ESPN/ABC (Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick, Lisa Salters) Radio: Westwood One

Before the season began, I thought of this game as potentially the biggest game for the Bills in 25 years, the length of their drought without a division title. But as the season has unfolded, this is now a game where the Bills are far and away the better team.

Josh Allen has become a superstar quarterback and the Bills offense is reminiscing on their offense from the early ’90s. It also helps to have stout defense that has been playing well as of late.

In their first season without the great Tom Brady, New England has shown that they clearly miss him. Their offense is not even close to what it was than when Brady was there, and their defense has also been vulnerable at times this season. Now having been eliminated from playoff contention, how will they come out and play on national television against a really good Bills team?

Game Pick: Bills 24 Patriots 17

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