CINCINNATI — 7. Indianapolis Colts @ 2. Buffalo Bills – Saturday at 1:05 p.m. on CBS (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn) Radio: Westwood One (John Sadak and Ross Tucker)
Opening Thoughts: This is Buffalo’s first home playoff game in 25 years, and it’s great that 6,700 fans will get to see it in person.
The Case for the Colts: The Colts absolutely belong in the playoffs. They do a lot of fundamental things well, including protecting quarterback Philip Rivers, running the football with rookie running back Jonathan Taylor finishing third in the NFL in rushing yards and they are very stout defensively finishing 10th in the NFL in points allowed per game. In addition, they have three wins over teams who also made the playoffs this year, with two of them coming on the road. So that shows that they have been able to play against playoff-caliber competition, as they have also gone 6-2 over their last eight games.
And with Rivers, who the Colts signed as a free agent to a one-year deal worth $25 million last offseason, the move has actually paid dividends. Rivers finished the season with 24 touchdowns to 11 interceptions while throwing for over 4,000 yard and completing 68 percent of his passes. I remember going into the Colts game against the Bengals reading articles detailing Rivers’s struggles taking care of the football and not being able to elevate the team. The truth is, though, he doesn’t have to elevate the team with the Colts strong running game and defense. Although it is worth noting that in the Colts 6-2 stretch over their last eight games, Rivers has thrown for 14 touchdowns to only four interceptions. And more so, he has a 4-0 career record in the wild card round of the playoffs.
The Case for the Bills: Buffalo is a really good team. Here’s a team that is entering the playoffs on a six-game winning streak, and they’re getting better every week. Don’t let that thought scare you. Also don’t let it scare you that the Bills have accumulated over 450 yards of offense in each of their last three regular-season games, all games they won EACH by 25 points or more. That includes scoring 56 points last week against the Dolphins No. 2 scoring defense, with half of those points coming with backup quarterback Matt Barkley in the game. Yes, that Matt Barkley. This offense is loaded with talent, anchored by MVP candidate in quarterback Josh Allen throwing for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns. And who does he have to throw to? Refer to the stats below.
Stefon Diggs: 127 rec., 1,535 yards, 8 TD
Cole Beasley: 82 rec., 967 yds
Gabriel Davis: 7 TD as a rookie
13 players caught at least one TD from Allen
But wait, their head coach, Sean McDermott, is a defensive-minded head coach. And true to form, the Bills have held four of their last six opponents to fewer than 20 points and three of their last four opponents to under 300 yards of offense. Did I mention Buffalo is a really good team getting better each week?
Game Pick: Bills 38 Colts 21 – Buffalo just has too much talent for the Colts to overcome, especially playing on the road. The Bills will unleash their lethal passing attack no matter what the weather conditions are, and it’s very hard to cool a team that’s as hot going into the playoff as the Bills are.
6. Los Angeles Rams @ 3. Seattle Seahawks – Saturday at 4:40 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi) Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Mike Holmgren)
Opening Thoughts: At first I thought this game would be a complete one-sided affair in favor of the home team. But as we progressed through the week and the Rams got some key pieces back to their team and Seattle’s offensive statistics revealing their recent struggles on that side of the ball, this game has the makings of being a hard-fought division battle with one team advancing and the other advancing too, just to the start of their offseason.
The Case for the Rams: It has been great to see Sean McVay and the Rams rediscover their offensive identity that won them 24 games and an NFC championship from 2017-18. But that was mainly in their first 10 games. The Rams have limped into the playoffs, both literally and metaphorically. Literally because their most important player, quarterback Jared Goff, is questionable for today’s game with a thumb injury. Metaphorically because they’re only 3-3 in their last six games, including an embarrassing home loss to the New York Jets.
But the story with the Rams is with their defense, as they lead the NFL in scoring. Aaron Donald posted another spectacularly dominant year with 13.5 sacks and four forced fumbles, while rookie cornerback Jordan Fuller led the team with four interceptions. As a team, the Rams have held their opponents to fewer than 300 yards on 10 occasions.
The Case for the Seahawks: When the Seahawks put it all together, and they haven’t yet this season, but if they’re able to in the playoffs they can run it all the way to Tampa and maybe bring back a second Lombardi Trophy to Seattle. In the first half of the regular-season, it was Seattle’s offense racking up points and yards at a prolific pace. Russell Wilson was playing like the MVP of the league. And then the Seahawks added Carlos Dunlap and Jamaal Adams to bolster the defense, and the hope was it would take the pressure off the offense of having to score so many points to overcome the defense’s previous deficiencies.
The problem for Seattle is the two sides of the ball flip flopped in terms of performance. The defense has been playing great, allowing fewer than 400 yards of offense in their previous eight games. But the offense has seemingly sputtered, particularly Russell Wilson. The once front-runner to win the MVP this season has not hit 300 yards passing since week nine after throwing for at least 300 yards in five of his first eight games. And in two of his last three games, he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards. But in spite of Wilson’s lack of prolificness and the offense’s overall struggles, Seattle is 7-1 in their last eight games. So why is anybody who is freaking out about this team exactly doing that? After all, the Seahawks still rank eighth in the league in scoring offense.
Game Pick: Seahawks 24 Rams 17 – As we have seen from this rivalry in recent years, this game could go either way. If Goff is able to go, he’ll give the Rams a much greater chance of moving the ball against a resurgent and stingy Seattle defense. That’s especially true if they’re able to run the ball and base their passing game with play action off of that run game. But this is the playoffs, and Wilson has always shown up for Seattle in his career in the month of January. In six of his first seven playoff appearances, the Seahawks have won at least one game. And most of Seattle’s wins in the playoffs since Wilson arrived in 2012 have been because of the pro bowl quarterback himself. This one on Saturday will also be because of him.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 4. Washington Football Team – Saturday at 8:15 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Tony Dungy, Katheine Tappen) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan and Ron Jaworski)
Opening Thoughts: Chase Young, just why? Why would you talk smack about the G.O.A.T. ahead of your first career NFL playoff game? Speaking of Brady, I’m excited to see him in his first playoff game with Tampa Bay.
The Case for the Buccaneers: It is truly unbelievable what Tom Brady is doing at age 43. Forty touchdown passes. FORTY. He’s playing like he’s 30, and he threw for 50 touchdowns in his age-30 season. What’s helped Brady is not just an elite group of weapons to throw to, but also the Buccaneers’ offensive line. Tampa Bay has only surrendered 22 sacks through 16 games. Again, you can have the most talented group of skill players in the league, but if the men upfront aren’t blocking and allowing the offense to function it’s a moot point to have an elite group of skill players. Point being: the offensive line is the most valuable unit in all of sports.
As expected, there were some growing pains this season for the Buccaneers. A rough offensive showing in the season-opener at New Orleans, getting stymied at Chicago, and losing three out of four at home in November had the Buccaneers at 7-5 and questions mounting. But they were quickly laid to rest with a strong four-game winning streak to close out the regular-season. Brady threw for 14 touchdowns over the last four regular-season games with only one interception, a stretch where the Buccaneers averaged 37 points per game. It will help the Buccaneers immensely if the expectation that wide receiver Mike Evans will play tonight becomes a reality, as Evans posted another monstrous year with over 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns.
The Case for the Washington Football Team: I’m still getting used to saying that name. What an abnormally interesting story this team is. They’re in the playoffs after a 3-13 season, which alone is an interesting, often great, story. But the problem here is, the Washington Football Team is in the playoffs, yet they have a losing record. Sure their defense is really good, especially upfront. And yes, Chase Young’s rookie season statistics does technically allow him to talk smack. But their offense is putrid, ranking in the bottom 10 in total offense, scoring, passing and rushing.
Ron Rivera is such an inspiration, and I have gained a lot of respect for him this season. I will always root for and have tremendous respect for those who continue to work and live their life while battling cancer. And Rivera coached while battling cancer and in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. That is toughness and inspiring right there. And even though the Washington Football Team finished with a losing record, it is an impressive coaching job in Rivera’s first season as the Football Team’s head coach after all the offseason turmoil to lead this team to the playoffs. Forget the fact that the NFC East stinks. Rivera also navigated the Football Team through a rough 2-7 start and kept them on track towards a division title. That’s proof that no matter how bad your record is to just keep playing because you never know what can happen. Washington seized that opportunity and got rewarded with a division title.
Game Pick: Buccaneers Buccaneers 34 Washington Football Team 17 – Chase Young will be eating humble pie by the end of the night. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers lethal and momentous offense, anchored by their strong offensive line, will shred this Washington defense and move one step closer to Super Bowl LV in their home stadium.
5. Baltimore Ravens @ 4. Tennessee Titans – Sunday at 1:05 p.m. on ABC/ESPN (Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick, Lisa Salters) Radio: Westwood One (Brandon Gaudin and Rod Woodson)
Opening Thoughts: This is the game I’m most looking forward to this weekend. These are two uberly talented, fun teams to watch. Also adding spice to this game; the fact that these two teams met last year in the playoffs, a stunning Titans upset victory over the Ravens, and they met this year in a regular-season classic that saw some bad blood boil over between them.
The Case for the Ravens: They’re playing their best football of the season at the exact right time, and that’s running the football and dominating on the defensive side. In their five-game winning streak to close out the regular-season, the Ravens eclipsed 200 rushing yards in four of them, including a walloping 404 against the Bengals in the regular-season finale. Lamar Jackson eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards for the second consecutive season- not bad for a running back- and the Ravens broke the 3,000 yard threshold in rushing as a team. They get after it defensively as well, as they have in each of their 25 seasons as a franchise, ranking second in the regular-season in points allowed per game.
The Case for the Titans: I love the way this team is built. Their offense is not designed to be prolific, but it is. That’s both running and passing that makes it prolific. Derrick Henry is an absolute force of nature. I sometimes question if he is human. The all-pro running back has rushed for 710 yards over the Titans final four regular-season games, helping him eclipse the 2,000 yard mark in the regular-season finale. And his last two games against the Ravens: rushing totals of 185 and 133 yards, with that 185 coming in last year’s playoff win.
But don’t let Henry’s greatness overshadow what quarterback Ryan Tannehill has accomplished this season in Tennessee. Thirty-three touchdowns to only seven interceptions, 65 percent of his passes completed and after a mediocre seven-year run in Miami, Tannehill has now led the Titans to back-to-back playoff appearances and the franchise’s first division title since 2008.
Game Pick: Ravens 34 Titans 27 – This game could be really good, and there could be some offensive fireworks with both team’s rushing attacks. But my concern is the Titans defense being able to slow down the Ravens run game. Tennessee’s defense has been shaky all season, and as I mentioned, it’s hard to cool a team that’s hot coming into the playoffs and that has a strong identity. I think Derrick Henry and the Titans offense scores points, but their defense will ultimately be their downfall in this highly-anticipated matchup.
7. Chicago Bears @ 2. New Orleans Saints – Sunday at 4:40 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Jay Feely) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Kugler and James Lofton)
Opening Thoughts: I don’t have much here. Chicago is by far the weakest team in this year’s playoffs, while the Saints, with another edition of one of the NFL’s most talented rosters, will look to exorcise their recent playoff demons in what could be their last playoff run with Drew Brees.
The Case for the Bears: How in the world are the Bears in the playoffs? They lost six straight games at one point in the regular-season. They won three of their last four games to clinch a playoff spot, but please. Those wins came against Houston, Minnesota and Jacksonville and the other game resulted in a 19-point loss at home to Green Bay. Sound like a playoff team? I think not.
The Case for the Saints: Another double-digit win season for Sean Payton and the Who Dat, their fourth straight such season. That’s in spite of Brees missing four games due to injury and Michael Thomas having ZERO touchdown catches. Say the latter part of that sentence a few times to yourself. And the Saints still went 12-4. Remarkable.
Alvin Kamara proved he may be the best running back in the NFL this season, or at least the best dual-threat running back with 16 rushing touchdowns and an additional five receiving touchdowns on 83 receptions. The Saints defense also delivered another strong season finishing fifth in the NFL in scoring and fourth in yards allowed per game. Forty-five sacks, 23 fumble recoveries and 18 interceptions to add to the shutdown they cause for opposing offenses will also certainly help a team win 12 games.
Gane Pick: Saints 41 Bears 17 – Again, not much to say here. I think this game will be a total mismatch. The only thing missing is 70,000 raucous fans creating the loud atmosphere that is the Superdome.
6. Cleveland Browns @ 3. Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday at 8:15 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michelle Tafoya) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan and Tony Boselli)
Opening Thoughts: I’m happy for the Browns players, organization and fans that they’re finally back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. It’s an incredible story, and major credit to head coach Kevin Stefanski for molding talented individuals into a good team that only got better as the season wore on. It’s a shame Stefanski can’t coach on Saturday due to testing positive for COVID-19, but there’s no time for the Browns to be wishing he was there. Pittsburgh will come ready to play with their physical style. They know that once the playoffs roll around, it’s a whole different kind of game.
The Case for the Browns: The key here for the Browns is to just stay true to who they are. They don’t have to go over the top offensively to beat the Steelers. If they run the football 40 times with both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and don’t ask Baker Mayfield to be superman, they have a chance. After all, this is an offense that finished third in the NFL in rushing yards per game behind only Baltimore and Tennessee.
The Case for the Steelers: The Steelers might be the weakest 12-4 team I have ever seen, at least on offense. They can’t run the ball consistently, their receivers drop too many passes, and Ben Roethlisberger is just simply not who he once was. That said, their defense is obviously really good at playing physical, stopping the run, in coverage and getting after the quarterback. That’s the kind of defense that can lead a team to the Super Bowl.
After starting 11-0, the Steelers have since lost four of their last five games. But this is the playoffs. What happened in the regular-season now ceases to a whole new season.
The Pick: Steelers 30 Browns 14 – The Browns did beat the Steelers last week, but it was only a two-point win with several key Steelers starters out, including Roethlisberger. Fun fact: Big Ben has NEVER lost to the Browns at home in his career. Overall; he is 24-2-1 against Cleveland in his career. But it will be the Steelers defense against a Browns offense without its playcaller in Stefanski and offensive guard Joel Bitonio that will be their dooming gloom in this AFC North Wild Card matchup.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 