CINCINNATI — Four great games this weekend. There’s something compelling to every game. After an entertaining, and somewhat unpredictable wild card weekend, most of these games this divisional round weekend could be really close with some potentially going either way. With that, here is my in-depth preview of this weekend’s action.
6. Los Angeles Rams @ 1. Green Bay Packers – Saturday at 4:35 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Daryl Johnston, Pam Oliver and Kristina Pink) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Kugler, James Lofton)
Opening Thoughts: I think the Packers are going to roll the Rams. I’ll come right out of the gate and say it. It’s the Rams, from Los Angeles, going to Green Bay. In January. Yeah, okay.
What I saw from the Rams last week: This Rams defense sure looked as good as the numbers suggested going into their wild card matchup at Seattle, and they made Russell Wilson look way less than what we have come to know him as. How so? The Rams held him to just 11/27 for 142 yards including just 6/17 for 38 yards in the second half, all of those second half yards coming on Seattle’s touchdown drive already trailing 30-13. The damage had been done. Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd had two sacks each and Darius Williams had a pick six midway through the second quarter that flipped the momentum to the Rams for the rest of the game.
On offense, Jared Goff wasn’t great, but he didn’t have to be. Cam Akers carried the Rams and their strong ground game to 131 yards and a touchdown. The Rams ran the ball 43 times as opposed to just 22 passing plays in their wild card win over Seattle, and with the quarterback situation in question heading into Saturday afternoon- I’ll bet my money on Goff starting- the Rams will be best suited to stick to the ground game to have success on the road.
The Case for the Packers: Green Bay enters the playoffs on a six-game winning streak and a week of rest. The latter part of that first sentence is significant, for the Packers have not had a week off since week five. Week five. And they got better as the season wore on. Now they’ve had a week of rest too. Whoa boy.
We should have known from his performance in week one that Aaron Rodgers was going to have an MVP-caliber year. Spoiler alert: he will be the MVP. This is otherworldly: forty-eight touchdown passes to just five interceptions. Plus, he completed 70.7 percent of his passes. At one point, he had six straight games completing 70 percent or more of his passes. Talk about efficiency. It helps to have a strong group of skill players led by Davante Adams, who led the NFL with 18 touchdown receptions in addition to 115 receptions and nearly 1,400 receiving yards. Robert Tonyan, who burst onto the scene in a big way, caught 52 of his 59 targets with 11 resulting in touchdowns. Rodgers also has a strong running game to lean on with Aaron Jones eclipsing the 1,100-yard mark and Jamaal Williams adding an additional 500. Marquez Valdez-Scantling was a hit or miss wide receiver, but when he catches the ball he is a dangerous vertical threat.
Defensively, the Packers picked up right where they left off from last year’s resurgence and limited opponents to just 334 yards per game. Za’Darius Smith was once again the anchor up front with 12.5 sacks, 23 quarterback hits and four forced fumbles. He was teamed with Rashan Gary who added five sacks, and a secondary that accumulated defended passes and interceptions.
Game Pick: Packers 44 Rams 21 – As I came out of the gate saying, I don’t think this game will be close. Green Bay’s offense is humming, and now they have had a week off. As great as the Rams defense has been, I don’t see them being able to limit Green Bay’s offense in Green Bay. And Jared Goff has struggled in cold-weather games in his young career up to this point. That will continue on Saturday.
5. Baltimore Ravens @ 2. Buffalo Bills – Saturday at 8:15 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya) Radio: Westwood One (Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker)
Opening Thoughts: I cannot wait for this game. Two of the best young quarterbacks in the game leading two of the NFL’s hottest teams into battle in a game that could honestly go either way; that’s what this game is being served up as.
What I saw from the Ravens last week: Lamar Jackson is a special player to watch right now. He’s playing, maybe, the best football of his career. And he’s doing so because he has gotten back to playing the game the way he plays it best; by unleashing his lethal, elite dual-threat abilities. Jackson rushed for 136 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries in addition to his 179 passing yards in the wild card win over Tennessee. He doesn’t have to be an elite thrower for the Ravens to win games, and now we have seen that to be true in the playoffs. Baltimore has a plethora of running backs that Jackson can be selective with when to break loose a big run, and that also saves him from taking potential big hits.
In addition, what makes a really good team is not only having a top 10 scoring offense but also having a top 10 scoring defense, and one that can completely eradicate what the opposition does best. In their wild card win over Tennessee, the Ravens made Titans running back Derrick Henry a complete nonfactor by holding him to just 40 rushing yards. Henry had 250 rushing yards just a week prior. After falling behind 10-0 late in the first quarter, the Ravens held the Titans to less than 100 yards of offense the rest of the game including four punts on Tennessee’s final six possessions.
What I saw from the Bills last week: I saw the Bill survive a scare from the Colts, but that’s not too concerning. The Colts proved last week that they were a really good team this season, and this is the playoffs. It’s not going to be smooth sailing. It’s going to be a slog, a grind, a chess match, and the Bills made enough moves situationally last week to ultimately put the Colts in check mate. Josh Allen was spectacular in picking up his first career playoff win, going 26/35 for 324 yards and two touchdowns while adding 54 yards and a touchdown on rushing on 11 carries.
Speaking of running, though, the Bills lost running back Zach Moss for the rest of the playoffs last week, and their running game struggled to get going in the game prior to him going down. Buffalo doesn’t absolutely have to get their ground game going because their passing game is so lethal, but in the playoffs it sure does help to have a ground game. That’s especially helpful in keeping a team that can control the clock like the Ravens off the field.
Game Pick: Ravens 30 Bills 24 – This game is going to be really fun, and it could go either way. But there’s just something about the Ravens right now playing really good football that my gut is telling me to pick them to pull off another road playoff win.
6. Cleveland Browns @ 1. Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday at 3:05 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Jay Feely) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green)
Opening Thoughts: This game has the potential to be really high-scoring. Need proof? Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes once played against each other in college to the final score of 66-59. The two teams combined for 1,708 yards and both quarterbacks threw for over 500 yards. Mahomes threw for 734 yards, to be exact.
What I saw from the Browns last week: I am genuinely happy for the organization and city of Cleveland. They went through so much losing, and now they get to enjoy a run through the playoffs. This year is different for the Browns, not just because they had a winning season and made the playoffs and won a playoff game. It’s different because of how they are winning. In prior years, the might have succumbed to the Steelers comeback from down 28-0, or the Titans coming back from down 38-3 in week 13 or the Cowboys coming back from down 41-14 in week four. But they didn’t. They weathered all those storms. They made enough plays to win those games. That’s a sign of a championship team. Sure the Browns have won a lot of games by close margins, but wins are wins. There’s no style points in the NFL, especially in the playoffs. Nick Chubb punched right back at Pittsburgh’s rally with a touchdown early in the fourth quarter, and linebacker Sione Takitaki picked off Ben Roethlisberger late in the fourth quarter to stymie any last gasp the Steelers had.
The case for the Chiefs: Like the Browns, they haven’t won a lot of games by blowing teams out. But they still won 14 games during the regular-season, the most in the league. And they are still really, really freaking good. I mean just look at the weapons they have on offense, in addition to having a quarterback named Patrick Mahomes. Tyreek Hill can flash with an explosive play on any play, as evidenced by his 14.7 yards per reception. Travis Kelce was always Mr. Consistent with 105 receptions in 15 games this season- that’s a very good seven per game- and his 11 touchdowns also make him a dangerous red zone threat. That’s the deal with the Chiefs. They can score really quickly with a deep shot, or they can score methodically with 15 play drives that culminate in the red zone. That’s how dynamic and versatile this offense is.
Game Pick: Chiefs 45 Browns 34 – There will be points in this game, but I think Kansas City is just too explosive offensively. I’ve heard some concerns over the month of December Mahomes had. News flash: it’s okay for even the really great and seemingly invincible players to have down months. And what’s a “down” month for Mahomes? Oh, a month where he throws for 1,243 yards in four games with eight touchdowns. But what about those four interceptions he threw? Did you know that he only threw TWO in his first 11 games prior to that? Again, R-E-L-A-X America. Mahomes has had some rest, and he will be just fine. So too will the Chiefs against a Browns defense that is not very good in the back end. That’s not good when facing an offense that can take the cover off like Kansas City.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 2. New Orleans Saints – Sunday at 6:40 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi) Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Tony Boselli)
Opening Thoughts: This stat is absurd. Sunday’s quarterback matchup between Tom Brady and Drew Brees features a matchup between quarterbacks that have thrown for a combined- brace yourselves- 159,562 yards. That’s almost 91 miles of yardage thrown between the two future hall of famers. My goodness!
What I saw from the Buccaneers last week: It truly is amazing what Tome Brady is doing. I know I mentioned that last week, but last Saturday he won his 31st playoff game by throwing for 380 yards and two touchdowns. Thirty one playoff wins. That’s almost double the amount of playoff games Drew Brees has played in. Not won. PLAYED in.
But the real difference in last week’s win was Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette. Fournette rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown while also adding 39 yards on four receptions. It’s great to see him make such a significant impact on a winning team because he really is a talented running back when in the right place. The Buccaneers signing him in the offseason has paid large dividends.
What I saw from the Saints last week: Don’t let the fact that they only won 21-9 over the hapless Bears fool you into thinking they can’t beat Tampa Bay. I went beyond that 21-9 final score- the Bears also scored their only touchdown on the last play of the game- and what I realized was the Saints put on a masterful display Sunday of coaching and knowing their personnel. Drew Brees can’t throw down the field. Alright, so they went methodical, surgical on Sunday. They only possessed the ball three times in the second half, but they made the most of them by taking 7:29, 8:51 and 5:19 off the clock. That adds up 21:39 of time of possession IN THE SECOND HALF. Sean Payton and the coaching staff realized Brees couldn’t throw down the field so they went methodical and surgical, utilizing running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray and using Michael Thomas on easy, short passes.
And then the defense. How good were they? They forced Chicago to punt on SEVEN OF THEIR 10 POSSESSIONS. Five of those were three and outs.
The Saints may have the most complete roster of any team left in the playoffs. And Brees doesn’t have to put up the most eye-popping numbers to lead them to playoff wins. But then again, he was 14/16 for 145 yards and a touchdown in the second half in New Orleans’s wild card win. Talk about efficiency.
Game Pick: Saints 31 Buccaneers 28 – This game could go either way. Both of these teams are really talented. But whenever making a pick for a game that comes down to a flip of a coin, I don’t flip a coin. I go with the home team. When in doubt, go with the home team. That’s my rule of thumb.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 