CINCINNATI — The Reds starting pitching has been a strong reason for the team’s recent surge into sole possession of the second wild card in the National League. Need proof? Of the Reds 21 wins since the All-Star break, Reds starting pitchers have combined for 18 of those wins. Overall, Reds starting pitchers have combined for an 18-7 record since the All-Star Break, and there’s a case to be made for sure for four of their five starting pitchers that they are this team’s staff ace.
If the Reds make the playoffs, they will more than likely be the second wild card in the National League, meaning they will play in a one-game playoff. So a question I have been thinking about is which pitcher would I want the Reds to name as the starter in the NL Wild Card Game? After a 162-game season of so many highs and lows that culminates in a postseason berth, if the Reds season were to come down to one game, if I was David Bell I would go all in on this one game. Not look ahead to the next round and what the pitching rotation would look like there. No, if our club’s season came down to one game, I’m going all in with our staff ace to give our club the best chance of surviving and advancing. Spoiler alert: for me, that staff ace is Luis Castillo.
More on Castillo later, but before I tell you why I think Castillo is this team’s staff ace, I’ll make my case for the other starting pitchers on this team and why each could be considered this team’s staff ace.
Sonny Gray: 5-6, 4.15 ERA
Gray probably has the weakest case to be considered this team’s staff ace. His stats are an indication that he has not been who he has been his previous two years with the Reds. Now part of that is due to him being put on the injured list three different times during the season, which could be why he hasn’t been able to get into a consistent rhythm.
But when he has been healthy and pitching, again, he hasn’t been what we have become accustomed to seeing. Only six times in his 19 starts this season has he gone six or more innings, and eight times in his 19 starts he lasted five or fewer innings pitched or has allowed six or more hits.
Gray has had three starts this season where he has pitched seven innings this season, his latest coming last Friday against the Miami Marlins where he only allowed one hit while throwing just 87 pitches. If he can repeat that performance, or come close to it, in his starts down the stretch, that can only help this Reds team lock down a playoff berth.
But the last two times prior to last Friday Gray has pitched seven innings, his next stretch of starts have been spotty to put it lightly. Below is a list of Gray’s subsequent outings by innings pitched following his seven-inning performances this season:
Start 1 (May 5 vs. White Sox): 4.2, 5, 6, 6, 4,2, 3
Start 2 (July 7 @ Royals): 4.2, 3.1, 6, 5, 5, 4.2
Sure there are some six inning performances in those stretches, but there are also several five or fewer-inning performances. It seems like in Gray’s starts he runs into trouble in a middle inning and ultimately that’s what gets him taken out of a game earlier than most fans would have hoped for. He can start off a game so well, but then just run into that one inning that ends his performance earlier than expected based on how he starts the game.
Wade Miley: 10-4, 2.89 ERA
Whereas Gray has struggled to consistently pitch deep into games, Miley has been the exact opposite. Since coming off the injured list to pitch on Memorial Day against the Phillies, he has gone seven or more innings in seven of his 14 starts with six of those outings being quality starts. That shows durability and reliability, the latter being for a pitcher I didn’t have high expectations for coming into this season after a truncated, subpar 2020 season. But through the first month, he always gave the Reds either five or six really good innings and then punctuated his start to the season with his no-hitter at Cleveland.
The only reason why I would not consider him this team’s staff ace is his recent struggles. Considering he has gone seven or more innings in 50 percent of his last 14 starts, it’s a little disappointing he has lasted five or fewer innings in three of his last six starts, including an abrupt short outing against a struggling Miami Marlins team last Saturday.
The good news is his other three starts in that six-game stretch have been quality starts, and given his reliability and durability throughout the course of most of this season, there is a case to be made for him being the staff ace and to be named the starter in the NL Wild Card game.
Vladimir Gutierrez: 9-4, 3.68 ERA
When we talk about this Reds team’s resiliency, Gutierrez is a prime example of it. He came up in late May during the darkest days of this team’s season, and he instantly steadied the pitching rotation. You knew just four starts into his big league career he belonged. When Jeff Hoffman and Sonny Gray were both on the injured list, Gutierrez established himself as a reliable fearless competitor on the mound.
Another reason for him being a prime example of this team’s resiliency is what he has done in his last six starts. On top of becoming the first Reds pitcher since Gary Nolan in 1967 to have a stretch of six consecutive starts going six or more innings and allowing two or fewer earned runs, it’s what he has done as the Reds starting pitcher in the game after a devastating loss that’s been the most impressive. Here’s what I’m referring to:
July 26: Reds lose to the Cubs 6-5, blowing a 5-3 lead and falling to just 51-49. The next day, Gutierrez pitched a gem at Chicago that saw him go 6 1/3 IP, only allowing 2 earned runs on just five hits while striking out five. The Reds went on to win the four-game series at Chicago and their next four games overall
July 31: Reds lost to the Mets 5-4 in 10 innings, blowing a 4-1 lead and failing to close the deal one strike away leading 4-3 in the bottom of the ninth. The next day, in the series rubber match, Gutierrez pitched seven strong innings allowing only one earned run on just three hits.
August 11: Reds lose to the Braves 8-6 in 11 innings, after battling back from down 5-0 earlier in the game. It was such a numbing loss that I thought the season had died that night. The next day, Gutierrez, backed by the Reds offense scoring nine runs in the first three innings, pitched another strong six innings allowing just one earned run on five hits. Not to mention, the Reds have gone 7-3 since that game and have gained five games on the Padres in the battle for the second wild card.
So not only has Gutierrez dealt six straight quality starts, he’s dealt half of them with the entire Reds team’s back against the wall. The only question, since he is a rookie, is can he continue this impressive run of quality starts? If he can, then he has a strong case to be considered this team’s staff ace and a candidate to start a one-game playoff.
Tyler Mahle: 10-4, 3.78 ERA
Mahle may be the most curious starting pitcher on this team, but the bottom line is he has been a really good starting pitcher this season. First off, what is it with his home and road splits? I get it, Great American Ball Park is a very hitter-friendly ball park, but a 6.00 ERA at home compared to 1.86 on the road? For someone who leads the team in strikeouts, a sure way to prevent runs at home, that is a surprising stark contrast.
Where Mahle has struggled this season is his efficiency. How many times do you look up and see he has 90 pitches by only the fourth or fifth inning? Maybe that’s why he has only pitched seven innings three times in 25 starts this season and five or fewer innings in 12 of those 25 starts. In 12 of his 25 starts, he has had over 90 pitches thrown after either the fourth or fifth inning. His efficiency has been better this month with back-to-back seven inning outings, so him continuing to improve his efficiency can only help this Reds team have another reliable ace-like starter.
Luis Castillo: 7-12, 4.35 ERA
I was having a conversation with a friend of mine back in late May, and he thought of Luis Castillo as someone who has only had one good year in his career. At that point, he was right. Outside of winning 15 games in 2019, Castillo had only won 18 games in the the other four-plus combined years in his career. But this was at the point in this season when Castillo was 1-7 and his ERA was 7.71.
In his last 15 starts going back to June 4 at St. Louis, he has been so consistently great that I consider him this team’s staff ace and the pitcher I would want to start a potential NL Wild Card Game. Consider that in his last 15 starts, in 12 of them he has gone six or more innings with all of them being quality starts including six or more strikeouts. And in nine of those starts, he has allowed five or fewer hits. He may only be 6-4 in this 15 game run, but his ERA is 2.89 and he has racked up 97 strikeouts.
It’s only worth wondering what his stats could look like if he had not struggled in the first two months this season, but his 15-game run since June 4 has reestablished him as this team’s most reliable starting pitcher and why he is, at least in my eyes, this starting rotation’s ace. And that’s why if the Reds season came down to the NL Wild Card Game, I would want the ace in Luis Castillo on the mound.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 