CINCINNATI — FOOTBALL. IS. BACK. And it will be bigger than ever this year, with now 17 regular season games, another year of expanded playoffs and a return to normalcy of sold-out stadiums, tailgates, and so much more.
Week one is always exciting since, of course, it kicks off the season. But it’s also a week of not knowing what to expect. Coaches can know what they have within their respective teams, fans can know as much as possible by following the work of those who cover the teams they root for on the daily, but at the end of the day, until you see your team play an actual game, whether as a coach or a fan, you really don’t know what to expect.
With that, here’s a look at the key week one matchups.
Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Kurt Warner)
Opening kickoff night features the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with all 22 starters returning, against the Dallas Cowboys, who, once again, have a lot of potential with their talented roster, but will this be the year that talent finally produces a successful season? Fun fact: a successful season in Dallas is getting to the Super Bowl, but that’s somewhere they franchise hasn’t been since 1995.
I’m excited for this game. Not just because it’s opening kickoff night, but also because it’s the beginning of, potentially, Tom Brady’s quest for his eighth Super Bowl title. Tampa Bay is the first Super Bowl winning team to return all 22 starters since the 1977 Oakland Raiders. Offensively, it’s ridiculous how good their weapons are. Consider; Antonio Brown only played in eight regular-season games last year and still managed to haul in 45 receptions for 483 yards and four touchdowns. Imagine what he can do playing a full season this year in this offense. Oh, and did I mention that Brown is an addition to a receiving corps that poses Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, etc.? And add Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard catching passes out of the backfield, a near 1,000-yard rusher in Ronald Jones last year and the fact that all these weapons on this offense are being led by the greatest quarterback of all time… Sheesh!
Defensively, this Buccaneers team is talented on all three levels. Their defensive front made life chaotic for Patrick Mahomes in the Super Bowl, and Shaquil Barrett, Lavonte David and Ndamukong Suh return after having their contracts restructured. David has been with Tampa Bay since 2012, but linebacker Devin White has come in and has immediately become this team’s leader. He is an absolute stud, and a playmaker. And despite their secondary still being young, it is very talented. Start with Sean Murphy-Bunting, who had an interception in each of Tampa Bay’s first three playoff games. Then add Carlton Davis III and his four interceptions during the regular season, Antoine Winfield’s knack for timely big plays and Mike Edwards and Jordan Whitehead and there are playmakers and shutdown corners galore in this secondary.
This game will also mark the return of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who suffered a gruesome ankle injury in week five of last season and battled a shoulder injury during the preseason. Where does Prescott rank in the NFL quarterback hierarchy? He’s led the Cowboys to two division titles in his first five seasons, four full, in his career, but he also has been the quarterback of two mediocre Cowboys teams, which is most likely how the Cowboys would have ended up had Prescott played the full season. Prescott was leading the NFL in passing yards before his injury, and he was helped by a receiving corps that has a lot of talent and potential. When Amari Cooper is at the top of his game, you can see why Dallas gave up what they did in trading for him back in the middle of the 2018 season. CeeDee Lamb enjoyed a solid rookie season last year with just under 1,000 yards and five touchdowns, and Micahel Gallup is a premiere WR3 in the league. When at his best, Ezekiel Elliott is a beast at running back. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been the last two seasons, bottoming out last year with five lost fumbles, under 1,000 yards rushing and just six touchdowns.
Defensively, they weren’t very good last year, but there is talent. New defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has been heralded as a “huge asset” and a “major step” in the right direction towards getting back to what they have done historically. It starts up front with their up-to-$100-million man in DeMarcus Lawrence, who just hasn’t been as productive as he was prior to signing his contract extension. Linebacker is where they are most talented, and yet there are questions there too. Can Leighton Vander Esch stay healthy? Jaylon Smith had 154 tackles last year, but he can’t do everything by himself. That’s where the Cowboys hope first round draft pick Micah Parsons out of Penn State can come in and help contribute. A largely unproven and and who’s who in the secondary is anchored by second-year cornerback Trevon Diggs and fifth-year slot corner Jordan Lewis.
Anytime the Cowboys are featured in a nationally televised game, its intriguing. And more often than not, the end result is them underperforming, embarrassment and humiliation and subsequently creating harsh criticism on the national sports talk shows. That will once again be the case this tonight.
Game pick: Buccaneers 34 Cowboys 20
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills – 1 p.m. on CBS (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn)
This is an interesting matchup, and intriguing. But it may not end up being close. This may be the first year of the Steelers decline, especially if their 1-5 finish to 2020 carries over to the start of this season. On the other side, Buffalo looks to build off a very promising 13-3 season in 2020 with a team oozing with talent.
As a Bengals fan and lifelong Steelers hater, I so badly want to say they’re going to be terrible this year. But objectively, I know that even when there’s not high expectations in Pittsburgh, the Steelers are always in playoff contention at season’s end. Ben Roethlisberger returns for his 18th season as Pittsburgh’s quarterback, but how much does he have left in him? Sure he threw for 33 touchdowns last year after missing most of 2019 with an elbow injury, but now he’ll be functioning behind a completely new offensive line and working with an unproven running game behind him. The receiving corps he’ll be throwing too is solid, with its leader in JuJu Smith-Schuster and budding star in second-year wide out Chase Claypool.
And defensively, you know Pittsburgh will show up on that side of the ball. T.J. Watt returns to anchor a strong defensive line. Watt is a freak. If not for Aaron Donald, he’d be the best defensive end in the game. How linebacker Devin Bush performs in returning from a season-ending knee injury in 2020 will be interesting to watch, and could only bolster this defense. Now he’ll join proven running mate Robert Spillane at linebacker behind Pittsburgh’s vaunted front. Minkah Fitzpatrick is an absolute stud in the secondary, perhaps the best safety in the game. Physical. Versatile. And a playmaker, with nine interceptions in his last two seasons. Terrell Edmunds is also reliable, but after losing Steven Nelson and Mike Hilton it will be up to Joe Haden and Cameron Sutton to make up for their losses at cornerback.
Two years ago, I was out on Josh Allen. Now, he’s a top five quarterback in the league. It helps when you have a cannon for an arm and an arm that throws to the likes of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders.
Defensively this is a strong team back to front. Jerry Hughes is the anchor up front and leader on that defense, and he has help from Mario Addison, Star Lotulelei and Ed Oliver and Efe Obada. Tremaine Edmonds is one of the most productive linebackers in the league, if you think 100+ tackles in each of his first three season quantifies productive. But their secondary is the defense’s strength, and it is stacked. Tre’Davious White is a stud at corner, maybe the next best in the league behind Stefon Gilmore. Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde make up the safety tandem, and corners Tarron Johnson and Levi Wallace round out a unit that ranked tied for seventh in the NFL with 15 interceptions.
It’s the first game of the season, so no one really knows what to expect. I think Pittsburgh will keep it close, but Buffalo’s offense will be too potent for them to keep up.
Game pick: Bills 31 Steelers 21
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs – 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson)
A rematch of last year’s tightly-contested AFC Divisional playoff game, this is a great week one matchup for Cleveland. For Cleveland to prove that they are, in fact, legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They have the roster to be one, and they improved their defense in the offseason with the acquisition of Jadeveon Clowney up front and Troy Hill in the secondary. In fact, all six of Cleveland’s free agency acquisitions were on the defensive side of the ball.
Combine those acquisitions with what they have on offense and the Browns have a chance to pose the most talented roster in the league. Baker Mayfield finally lived up to, and exceeded, expectations last year, and he finally has a head coach and play-caller in Kevin Stefanski. He also has the best running back tandem in the league, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, to hand the ball off to and take some of the load off his shoulders. And when he is dropping back to pass, he has as good of a cast weapons as any quarterback has in the league in Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashard Higgins, Austin Hooper, David Njoku, etc. He’s been given all the tools necessary to succeed, and he did last year. But can he again this year with actual, palpable expectations?
Meanwhile in Kansas City, you know they are very good. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, and it’s not even a question. Think Cleveland’s weapons are good? Well, the Chiefs’ are better. Consider; Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both had double-digit touchdowns last year, and Kelce led the team in receptions at 105. Did I mention Kelce’s a tight end? And to make sure Mahomes can get the ball to Kelce, Hill, Mecole Hardman Jr., etc., the Chiefs splurged on offensive linemen in free agency. Here’s how emotional losing the Super Bowl can be: The Chiefs were missing two starting offensive linemen due to injury, which was no fault of the injured players. And yet, they still took what happened in that game- Mahomes running for his life- and signed the best free agent guard in Joe Thuney, former Ravens left tackle Orlando Brown Jr, former Rams center Austin Blythe and lured offensive guard Kyle Long out of retirement. Lesson in life: when you have a half-million-dollar quarterback in Patrick Mahomes who is generationally talented, do everything in your power to protect the investment.
Where this Chiefs team poses weaknesses is in their running game and on defense. Mahomes is so good he can make up for the running game or lack thereof, and Andy Reid has made this a very pass-happy offense. But what if Clyde Edwards-Helaire breaks out for a 1,000+-yard season? Could this lethal offense be even better? And defensively, again, Mahomes is so good he and the offense make up for the points the Chiefs allow. Which, actually, the Chiefs ranked in the top 10 in the NFL in points allowed last year. Where I worry about the Chiefs defense is their ability to stop the run and their heavy reliance on forcing turnovers. Sure Tyrann Mathieu has been all-pro the last two years and is an absolute stud at safety and Juan Thornhill helps him with his ball-hawking abilities, but turnovers fluctuate from year-to-year and this Chiefs team will have to find a way to stop opponents’ ground attack and keep them off the scoreboard.
This may be the most anticipated game of the week, and rightfully so. It’s the team that finished with the best regular-season record last year matched up against a team with a rejuvenated fanbase salivating over their team has generated. I thought this would be a high-scoring game in the playoffs last year, and it turned out to be a close, low-scoring affair. Again, you never know what to expect in week one, but I think Kansas City will prevail in a potential postseason preview.
Game pick: Chiefs 34 Browns 27
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints (in Jacksonville) – 4:25 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
This is one of two games that most intrigues me this week. These are two teams who have been two of the NFC’s most consistent over the last 15 years. Green Bay will, most likely, once again be one of the NFC’s premiere teams. But in New Orleans, change has been a focal point of their offseason with Drew Brees retiring. But does that mean the Saints are just going to disappear into NFL irrelevancy? Spoiler alert; I don’t necessarily think so.
Jameis Winston has been named the Saints starting quarterback, and he’s in a really good situation. For starters, he’s playing under one of the best offensive minds in the game in head coach Sean Payton. On the field, his cast of weapons include Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara and Tre’Quan Smith. Most quarterbacks would yearn to have that good of a group. In addition, the Saints offensive line doesn’t get talked about as much as they should. It is really good, and high-quality. Both tackles are top-tier players in Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramcyck, their center is also top-tier in Erik McCoy, their left guard in Andrus Peat is a three-time Pro Bowler and their right guard, Cesar Ruiz, was a first round draft pick in 2020.
You know what you’re getting in Green Bay. As long as Aaron Rodgers is under center and healthy, this team will be really good. Davante Adams has become a top three wide receiver in the league. He can catch anything thrown his way, and is a deadly red zone threat. And if the weapons in addition to Adams can step up, including tight end Robert Tonyan and wide receiver Marquez Valdez-Scantling, this offense can become unpredictable, and that’s a good thing for the Packers. Like the Chiefs, the Packers used to struggle to generate a running game. But now they have one headlined by Aaron Jones, who signed a four-year, $48 million extension this offseason after a 2020 season where he ran for 1,104 yards and nine touchdowns.
Both the Packers and Saints have not been known for defense over the last 15 years, but they have become more of a strength in recent years. Green Bay may have shown some flaws last year- i.e., Kevin King getting completely burned by Tampa Bay’s Scottie Miller at the end of the first half in the NFC Championship- but there is talent both up front and in the secondary. Kenny Clark is stout at defensive tackle, and free safety Darnell Savage snagged four interceptions while cornerback Jaire Alexander earned a Pro Bowl appearance last year.
For New Orleans, they have done a great job in recent years of drafting and developing defensive players, especially in the secondary. Marshon Lattimore is on of the best cornerbacks in the league, a ball hawk. Add in fellow 2017 draft pick Marcus Williams, fourth-round 2019 pick C.J. Gardner Johnson and their free agent acquisitions Malcolm Jenkins and Patrick Robinson and this secondary makes it hard for opposing offenses to throw against them. Even after losing Trey Hendrickson to the Bengals in free agency, this is still a stout defensive front with Cameron Jordan anchoring it in the middle. Behind him, Demario Davis is heavily reliable with four straight 100-tackle seasons, including 119 in 2020.
The only thing I wish this game would have is a sold out crowd in the Superdome. When that place hosts a big game and there’s a sold out crowd, that place gets loud. Unfortunately, Hurricane Ida prompted this game to be moved to Jacksonville’s TIAA Bank Field, but it’s still an intriguing matchup.
Game pick: Packers 31 Saints 24
Sunday Night Football – Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya) Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Rod Woodson)
Just going to be honest here, this is a terrible Sunday Night matchup. Unless you’re a fan of defensive football, and bad offensive football. At least on one side. It wouldn’t shock me if this game turns into a blowout.
Let’s start with the Bears. I understand the logic behind not starting rookie quarterback Justin Fields to start the regular-season, but I disagree with it. My philosophy has always been if you draft a quarterback in the first round, why wouldn’t he play in week one? Clearly there was a need for a quarterback, and considering every game matters he should be out there to give your team the best chance to win. Do the Bears really think Andy Dalton is going to give them a better chance to win than Fields on Sunday night and at the start of the season, or are they are viewing him as a bridge guy to Fields? If Dalton wins games, great. But if not, the Bears have a young, potential, star waiting in the wings. That’s their logic, and it’s terrible. Fields will learn more by playing in live regular-season games, not watching Andy Dalton from the bench. And if anybody needs a reminder, Andy Dalton’s record in prime time games is 6-15.
The Rams, meanwhile, are set at quarterback. I was shocked to see Jared Goff get traded by the Rams. But the good news is, they got former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford in return. I’ve always been a big fan of Stafford, and I’m happy for him that he now gets to play for a winning organization in a big market. And he now gets to play for one of the best and most creative offensive minds in the game in Sean McVay, whose offense has a multitude of weapons to throw to in Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, DeSean Jackson and Tyler Higbee. While running back Cam Akers being out for the season is a big blow to the run game, the hope is third-year back Darrell Henderson can make up Akers’s absence.
Defensively this team is a beast. Aaron Donald is an absolute monster. He keeps getting better, which is scary to process. Team-wise, the Rams were tops in the NFL in total, pass and scoring defense. Rushing defense? They weren’t first, but they were still third. Oh and did I mention they were second in sacks with 53? Last year’s defensive coordinator Brandon Staley departed, although not really, since all he did was become the next head coach of the Rams’ stadium mates- if that’s a thing- in the Los Angeles Chargers. He was replaced with Raheem Morris, who has essentially been handed the keys to a Ferrari. When you’re given Donald, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, Leonard Floyd, who tallied 10.5 sacks in addition to Aaron Donald’s 13.5, and all-pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the task is simple: don’t screw it up.
What is Chicago? They’re known for their defense, but even that unit wasn’t that great last year. They were middle of the pack last year in most statistical categories. And they weren’t that much better offensively, ranking in the bottom half of almost all statistical categories there too. The only one they weren’t ranked in the bottom half? Kick returns, and let’s be honest, that’s a special teams category.
Game pick: Rams 34 Bears 17
Monday Night Football – Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders – 8:15 p.m. on ESPN/ABC (Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick, Lisa Salters) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Kurt Warner)
This is the game I’m most looking forward to this week. It’s the Ravens and their, at times, indefensible offense, against Jon Gruden’s Raiders on Monday night, in Vegas, with their new stadium full of fans for the first time.
I think the Ravens will be a good team again this season, and they’re my pick to win the AFC North. That said, it’s time for Lamar Jackson to step it up a notch as a passer. The Ravens rushing attack is lethal, but its beatable. Just ask Tennessee and Buffalo, who stopped it in each of the last two postseasons. Now throw in J.K. Dobbins’s absence, who will miss this season with a torn ACL, and that means running back Gus Edwards will take on a larger role. After Edwards, though, they don’t have much at all at the running back position, which is a problem for a heavy run-first team. The Ravens have given Jackson some good weapons to throw to in Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews and free agent acquisition Sammy Watkins at wide receiver. In addition, their offensive line is solid, with free agent acquisitions Alejandro Villanueva and Kevin Zeitler and the return of all-pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley.
Defensively, you know the Ravens will be good. Very good. From front to back, there is talent. This defense just suffocates opposing offenses, making it difficult for them to move the ball. Baltimore’s defense ranked in the top 10 in total, rushing, passing and scoring defenses in 2020. Even though they lost Matt Judon and Yannick Ngakoue, two solid pass rushers, they still have ways to get after opposing quarterbacks in Calais Campbell, Tyus Bowser, Pernell McPhee and Patrick Queen. In the secondary, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey are ball magnets. They look to take the ball away every opportunity they can get.
Las Vegas is an interesting team. The last two seasons they have started 6-3 and 6-4. The problem is, they finished 2-5 and 1-5 in those two seasons. Derek Carr is solid, but that might be his ceiling. The sad part is, he has the weapons around him to be great. Darren Waller is a stud at tight end. Henry Ruggs III, John Brown and Hunter Renfrow have the potential to be a solid receiving corps, and Josh Jacobs is an emerging star at running back. Where I worry is their offensive line. What was a solid group the last two seasons underwent an exodus in the offseason with the departures of Rodney Hudson, Gabe Jackson and Trent Brown.
Defensively, it was a mess for Las Vegas last year. However, if they can improve just the slightest, this team can challenge for a playoff spot. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley offers experience, and free agent acquisition in defensive end Yannick Ngakoue offers a volatile edge rusher for a defense that hasn’t had one in a long time. This is an organization that has invested a lot in upgrading the defense on all three levels, as evidenced by Cory Littleton coming over from the Rams last year and acquiring safety Karl Joseph from Cleveland and defensive tackle Solomon Thomas from San Francisco this offseason.
But even if their defense is slightly improved, I worry about this team’s offensive line. Especially in this season-opener against the ferocious defensive front in the Baltimore Ravens. The Raiders always seem to surprise the football world at the start of the season, and playing in front of a full house in their new stadium for the first time will have them fired up to play Monday night. This game can go either way, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Raiders pulled the upset.
Game pick: Raiders 31 Ravens 24
Other week 1 games and scores
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans – Trevor Lawrence makes his highly-anticipated NFL debut against a Texans team I don’t know what they’re doing. The last 13 rookie NFL quarterbacks to start week one have gone winless, but I think Lawrence breaks that streak.
Game pick: Jaguars 20 Texans 13
Los Angeles Chargers @ Washington Football Team – This is great first test for Justin Herbert and the Chargers revamped offensive line. Entering year two, there are massive expectations for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year. What better way to start year two than with a matchup against perhaps the best defense in the NFL in Washington. That defense is ferocious and incredibly talented, with four first round draft picks on the defensive line alone.
Game pick: Football Team 20 Chargers 17
Seattle Seahawks @ Indianapolis Colts – Another intriguing week one game between two playoff-caliber teams. Carson Wentz may end up playing in week one after all, but his counterpart Russell Wilson is a road warrior.
Game pick: Seahawks 27 Colts 24
New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers – If you’re not intrigued by this game, that’s understandable. But there’s still storylines packed into this game, particular at the quarterback position. Second overall pick Zach Wilson makes his debut under center for the Jets while Sam Darnold makes his Carolina debut against his former team.
Game pick: Panthers 24 Jets 14
Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals – More to come in my Bengals weekly preview for full analysis.
Game pick: Bengals 27 Vikings 21
Arizona Cardinals @ Tennessee Titans – This is a prove it game for the Cardinals. They’ve been building their roster for contention the last three years, now it’s time for them to win games. Meanwhile, the Titans have already established themselves as contenders with three playoff appearances in the last four years. They’re one step ahead of the Cardinals, and that’s why they will come away with a week one win.
Game pick: Titans 34 Cardinals 21
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions – If there is one team I think will make the playoffs after missing them last year, it’s San Francisco. When healthy, they’re as talented as any in the league… regardless of who plays quarterback for them. Detroit? Yes, Jared Goff is their quarterback. In case you forgot, he’s played in a Super Bowl. He’s got, supposedly, a talented offensive line in front of him. My question; besides T.J. Hockenson, name me another skill player on their team?
Game pick: 49ers 32 Lions 20
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons – Remember when these two teams would get together, and the game would be on national television? Now, it’s like this game is an afterthought. Philadelphia may be the worst team in the league this year. What direction are they going in? Same deal for Atlanta. Are they letting Matt Ryan play one more year too many, when they maybe should have drafted a quarterback for the future?
Game pick: Falcons 24 Eagles 14
Denver Broncos @ New York Giants – Here we go! This is a game I can get behind. Two teams who are sneaky competitive and potential dark horse playoff candidates. Denver has a talented roster, I think. And now they have a quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater who, yes, hasn’t played much, but I really like him, and has led a team to a division title. That’s something tangible. The Giants are another interesting team, but they need to determine if Daniel Jones is their franchise quarterback. Giants running back Saquon Barkley is reportedly getting close to return from a torn ACL he suffered in week two of last season, but he and the rest of the offense need a reliable quarterback throwing him the ball.
Game pick: Broncos 20 Giants 13
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots – Welcome to 2021. A world where Tua Tagavailoa and Mac Jones are now opposing quarterbacks in this matchup. Both teams enter 2021 after polar opposite seasons in 2020, but not the way you would think. Miami surprised many and won 10 games in 2020, but largely thanks to its defense. Tua needs to prove himself, and the Dolphins gave him an upgraded receiving corps with additions Will Fuller and first round draft pick Jaylen Waddle. Meanwhile, the Patriots, uncharacteristically, went 7-9 last season… but that was their first season post-Tom Brady. Now, they have a quarterback in Mac Jones, who will be solidly protected by New England’s stout offensive line, aided by a strong running game in James White and Damien Harris and helped on the other side by an always reliable defense. They may not make the playoffs, but fair warning: New England is coming back.
Game pick: Patriots 24 Dolphins 14
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 