CINCINNATI — Enough with the tune-up games. Now the real fun begins. If the Bearcats want any chance at being selected to the College Football Playoff after the season, these are the games they need to win. Saturday marks the start of a two-game road trip through the Hoosier State that will determine their College Football Playoff hopes’ fate. Win both, and you’re telling me there’s a chance. Only win one, and all hopes of becoming the first Group of Five team to reach the College Football Playoff will be dashed. So here we go. Every game from here on out is a must-win. Starting this Saturday at Indiana.
The Game: 8. Cincinnati @ Indiana – noon E.T., Memorial Stadium – Bloomington, Indiana
TV: ESPN (Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek, Tom Luginbill)
Radio: 700WLW/102.7 WEBN (Dan Hoard, Jim Kelly Jr., Mo Egger)
***700WLW will break away from coverage at 1:40 p.m. for Reds vs. Dodgers***
Opening Thoughts: Look it’s no secret. This is a game we have been waiting for for a long time as Bearcats fans. When opportunities like this one come around, it’s imperative to take advantage of it. For a program like Cincinnati, these games mean a little bit more because they, currently, play in the mid-major American Athletic Conference. Now the good news is with Cincinnati being admitted to the Big 12, more games like this will be more abundant on future schedules. But for now, this is a huge opportunity to show the Bearcats can play with, and beat, Power Five opponents.
I’m disappointed Indiana isn’t undefeated coming into this game. Because if Cincinnati walks out of Bloomington with a win, how much will it really mean? If Indiana were 2-0, they’d be ranked around the top 15 which would make a Bearcats win all the more impressive. But considering the Bearcats still play in the AAC, a win at Bloomington would still look very good on their resume.
I look at this game like an NCAA Tournament game for the Bearcats. Over the final nine seasons of Mick Cronin’s tenure here as head coach, the Bearcats would always win a vast majority of the games they were supposed to win. But when it came Tourney Time, they bowed out in the first weekend in eight of their nine straight NCAA Tournament appearances. When opportunities like the NCAA Tournament on a national stage came around, they squandered them. Now an opportunity like this in football cannot be wasted.
Last time out
The Bearcats overcame a subpar first half to overpower Murray State to the tune of 35 points in the second half and a 42-7 win. It took over a quarter for the Bearcats to get on the scoreboard, including falling behind 7-0, before finally striking on Noah Davis’s fourth down touchdown reception with 9:41 left in the second quarter.
Jerome Ford continues to get better and better each time out, this time rushing for 113 yards and three touchdowns on 18 carries. And the return of turnovers was present as Cincinnati picked off Murray State quarterback Preston Rice three times.
The Bearcats slow start can be interpreted multiple different ways. Sure it was concerning that the Bearcats were tied 7-7 with Murray State at halftime. But Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder’s fiery halftime speech to the team let them know they weren’t living up to the standard. Maybe it was good this team went through an adverse experience like this against Murray State to learn how to respond when things are not going according to plan or how they should be. We’ll find out Saturday.
Indiana bounced back from a terrible season-opening loss at Iowa by crushing Idaho 56-14 last Saturday. Graduate transfer running back Stephen Carr paved the way on the ground with 118 rushing yards and a touchdown on 22 carries. Redshirt junior quarterback Michael Penix Jr. only passed for 68 yards, but did throw for two touchdowns and ran for another for three total on the afternoon. The Hoosiers also got a special teams touchdown as sophomore Javon Swinton returned a blocked punt for a touchdown, becoming the first Hoosier in six years with an offensive and special teams touchdown.
The Hooisers defense held Idaho to just 65 yards rushing while also forcing a fumble. That gives Indiana a turnover forced in 17 of their last 18 games and 38 of their last 41 games overall.
Bearcats on offense
So far so good through two games. Desmond Ridder has been slinging the ball all around the field, as 13 different players have a reception. Ridder has thrown for 538 yards and six touchdowns through the Bearcats first two games, and he’s also completed 72.3 percent of his passes. Running back Jerome Ford has rushed for 234 yards over the first two games with four touchdowns to go along with it. Now as the Bearcats lead back, Ford’s first two games have set him up to have a huge season statistically. Leading the way on the receiving end is wideout Tyler Scott, whose big-play knack has paid large dividends over the team’s first two games. Scott is averaging 31 yards per catch so far, including a dazzling 81-yard touchdown on the second play from scrimmage in the Bearcats season-opener. Six different players have caught touchdowns for Cincinnati through two games, showcasing the depth this offense has.
Indiana on defense
The Hoosiers are anchored up front by graduate + defensive end Ryder Anderson, who has amassed three tackles for loss and a sack through the first two games. Senior linebacker Micah McFadden also has three tackles for loss on the season as well as a sack and fumble forced. As a team, the Hoosiers have recovered all three fumbles forced, but they have yet to record an interception.
Indiana on offense
Redshirt-junior quarterback Michael Penix Jr. quickly rose to noteworthy in 2020, so much so that he was put on five player of the year watch lists heading into this season. But through the first two games, Penix Jr. has only completed 53.2 percent of his passes with just two touchdowns to three interceptions. But Penix Jr. can’t be taken lightly. Before suffering a torn ACL in November of 2020, the southpaw was leading the Big Ten passing yards per game and overall, touchdowns, completion and attempts. His 2020 season was highlighted by a 491-yard, five-touchdown performance at Ohio State, and his 14 touchdowns and four interceptions suggest that he can have a breakout performance any game this season.
Running back Stephen Carr is the Hoosiers leading rusher with 175 yards and a tocuhdown through two games. Senior wide receiver Ty Fryfogle, who earned third-team All-American status last season from the AP, leads the team with 113 receiving yards and a touchdown. It’s been a slow start for the Hoosiers offense through the first two games, and a season that began with them ranked in the preseason for the first time since 1969 may hinge on this marquee game against a Bearcats team looking for a dream season of their own.
Bearcats on defense
Much like the Bearcats offense, the defensive stats are widely spread out, showcasing the depth that that side of the ball has. Graduate linebacker Joel Dublanko has been a beast so far, with four quarterback hits, two tackles for loss and a half sack. The Bearcats three interceptions last week were all corralled by three different players in junior nickel corner Arquon Bush, senior safety Ja’von Hicks and junior cornerback Ahmad Gardner. Sophomore linebacker Deshawn Pace leads the team in tackles with 15.
Frankie’s Gameplan to Victory
1. Win the turnover battle – What has made the Bearcats defense so good over the last three seasons has been its ability to force turnovers, be opportunistic. Both teams are very good at forcing turnovers, so the team that can capitalize on the most opportunities and best take care of the football will most likely be in position to win the game.
2. No slow starts or sleepwalking though the first quarter – This goes without saying. Start like the Bearcats did against Murray State, and this team could be in deep trouble. This is Indiana. The Big Ten you’re going up against. Not FCS Murray State. And this is a road game.
3. Establish the run – When the Bearcats have won games against Power Five teams in recent seasons, their run game paved the way in those wins. When “the Truck” Michael Warren turned on the gas, the Bearcats offense was impossible to slow down. But in games they have lost to Power Five teams, their running game was stagnant against Ohio State and Georgia. If Jerome Ford can cruise down the field, that can make for a long day for Indiana’s defense as they will have to key on him and Desmond Ridder. If Ridder has help from Ford, that will make the Bearcats offense more balanced and multi-dimensional.
Game pick: Bearcats 31 Indiana 24 – I think Cincinnati is the better team, but a road game against a Power Five opponent won’t be easy. While I mentioned Indiana’s offense has gotten off to a slow start this season, they are capable of playing up to their level of competition just as they did against Ohio State in 2020. But when all is said and done, I believe the Bearcats will be walking out of Bloomington with a 3-0 record.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 