NFL week 11 preview

CINCINNATI — The following is a preview and breakdown of the key games from week 11 of the NFL season. In addition, previews for all other games for week 11 are included.

Thursday Night Football: New England Patriots @ Atlanta Falcons – 8:20 p.m. on FOX and NFL Network (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink) Radio: Westwood One (Ian Eagle, Tony Boselli)
For as many heartbreaking losses I have been through as a Cincinnati sports fan, the Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots was a loss that hit me as hard as any from the Bengals, Bearcats or Reds. Even though Tom Brady is no longer with the Patriots, the opportunity to exorcise demons is there for the Falcons Thursday night.

What a win for New England last week against the Browns. They didn’t just win, they dominated. Mac Jones may have had his most productive game as a pro with three touchdown passes and leading a touchdown drive of 99 yards. Over the last four games, the Patriots have outscored their opponents 150-50.

Atlanta had the exact opposite result against Dallas last Sunday, getting blown out 43-3. Matt Ryan was held to under 120 yards passing and threw two interceptions, and the defense was gashed by Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

But the good news for Atlanta is that this is a trap game to the extreme for New England. They have Tennessee looming next Sunday, they just dominated an allegedly good team in Cleveland, they have a rookie quarterback and rebuilding team and this game is on the road against a team that just got their doors blown off with only a short week to prepare for. And considering how trap games have gone so far for teams this season, cough cough the Bengals, I’m smelling a huge upset here.

Game pick: Falcons 27 Patriots 21

Baltimore Ravens @ Chicago Bears – 1 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson)
I think this could be a really ugly, low-scoring game. The Ravens are the more-talented team, but the Bears defense is competitive. Playing at home, and off a bye, I think the Bears defense comes out and beats up a battered Ravens offense.

The Ravens loss at Miami was shocking, but it was also revealing. I think falling behind by double-digits caught up to them. Why? Because now that teams have shown they can pressure Lamar Jackson, the Ravens, mainly Lamar himself, can’t do what they do best which is run the ball if they get behind. Slow starts also let teams hang around, especially those several games under .500 like Miami. Chicago is another team under .500 at 3-6, but their defense, more often than not, will gave them a chance, and Justin Fields made strides in the Bears two games before he bye week.

The weather forecast for Sunday in Chicago says a high of 47 with rain. Yuck. While that does indicate the run games will be heavily utilized- advantage Baltimore- I think this is a low-scoring game dominated by defense, and the Bears have the better of the two defenses.

Game pick: Bears 20 Ravens 17

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – 1 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver)
Whereas the Ravens-Bears will be low-scoring, I think this game will be the exact opposite. These are two teams with juggernauts of offenses.

Don’t let Green Bay only putting up 17 points last week fool you into thinking anything different about them than you thought over the first eight weeks of the season. This is still a really good team. Sunday was also Aaron Rodgers returning from his bout with COVID-19. The only real concern I have is which receiver is going to consistently step up as the No. 2 weapon behind Davante Adams.

Minnesota continues to keep trying to make people believe in them. To their credit, their talent has been really good, especially on offense. Kirk Cousins has quietly been having maybe his best season with 18 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He’s not to blame for Minnesota’s 4-5 record. Eleven of those 18 touchdowns have gone to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson, and Dalvin Cook has had a solid first nine games with 648 rushing yards and three scores.

The problem with Minnesota is their defense has failed them in crucial moments this season. Did I mention their head coach is defensive-minded? And last year against Green Bay in Minnesota, the Vikings defense was torched for 43 points.

Rodgers may have taken last Sunday’s game to reacclimate himself, but this game will be different. As in, he will come to play and play well. So too will the Packers offense as a whole.

Game pick: Packers 34 Vikings 20

Cincinnati Bengals @ Las Vegas Raiders – 4:05 p.m. on CBS (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn)
More on this in my Bengals weekly preview. I’ll say this; the game will come down to if the Bengals offensive line can keep the Raiders pass rush at bay. If they can, Joe Burrow can test a spotty Raiders secondary with deep shots to Ja’Marr Chase which can then lead to Tyler Boyd and C.J. Uzomah being open in the middle of the field for those short, easy yards.

Game pick: Bengals 31 Raiders 24

Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs – 4:25 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
This is America’s Game of the Week, as it should be. There could be a lot of scoring in this matchup, and it’s not inconceivable that this is a potential Super Bowl preview.

Kansas City appears to have rediscovered their offensive firepower in their impressive 41-14 win over the Chiefs last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes had his best game of the season, and he also didn’t blemish it with any interceptions. In addition, the Chiefs defense has also been playing much better in allowing under 13 points over their three-game winning streak.

After a poor performance against Denver in week nine, the Cowboys bounced back in a big way with a romping of the Falcons this past Sunday. Dak Prescott put up numbers reminiscent of those he put up over the first six games of the season and Trevon Diggs notched his eighth interception of the season.

A game that could go either way, I am going to roll with Dallas. They proved they can go on the road into tough environments like Los Angeles and New England and win and nearly took down the defending Super Bowl champions in Tampa on Opening Kickoff Night. What’s to say they can’t go into Arrowhead and win against a Chiefs team that hasn’t completely rounded into form yet?

Game pick: Cowboys 31 Chiefs 28

Sunday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya) Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Terrell Davis)
What I’m interested in seeing in this game is how many Steelers fans are going to make the trip to Los Angeles. The last time the Steelers played in L.A.- albeit, at 27,500-seat Carson Field- the crowd had to be at least 75 percent Steelers fans.

Anyway, I don’t like this matchup for the Chargers. The Steelers play a physical brand of football, and the Chargers have struggled against teams like the Steelers so far this season. The tie against the Lions is inexcusable, no doubt. But prior to that game, the Steelers played well in their previous four games, all wins. They’re suffocating opponents defensively and they’re running the ball on offense. For a team that isn’t explosive offensively, that’s their formula for winning games. And it’s working.

Game pick: Steelers 23 Chargers 20

Monday Night Football: New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick) ESPN2 (Peyton & Eli Manning and guests) Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Tony Boselli)
This is the game Tampa Bay bounces back. There’s no way Tom Brady allows them to lose three straight games. He knows this is a game Tampa Bay really has to win to both snap their losing streak and cushion their lead in the NFC South.

The good news for Tampa Bay is several key players on both sides of the ball are starting to get healthy. Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown are both questionable for Monday night’s game, but they’re getting close to returning regardless. Also close to return is cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting, which will bolster a thin but talented secondary.

The Giants have been competitive this season, but they haven’t yet shown they are good enough to beat a team the caliber of Tampa Bay.

Game pick: Buccaneers 35 Giants 17

Other week 11 games

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills – 1 p.m. on CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Melanie Collins)
A rematch of last year’s AFC Wild Card playoff game last year. Buffalo, like Kansas City, rediscovered their offensive firepower last week in a 45-17 stomping of the Jets. But Indianapolis, like they were in the playoffs last year, will be a challenge to Buffalo with their ground game and fundamentally sound defense.

Game pick: Bills 27 Colts 24

Detroit Lions @ Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. on FOX (Gus Johnson, Aqib Talib, Megan Olivi)
When are things finally going to break for Detroit? After 10 weeks of futility, you feel like they finally have to, right?

Meanwhile, what was that from Cleveland last week? They keep showing signs that they can be good, but they haven’t sustained those signs for a lengthy stretch this season.

Game pick: Browns 24 Lions 13

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans – 1 p.m. on CBS (Andrew Catalon, James Lofton, Sherree Burruss)
The only thing going for the Texans in this game is not having to face Derrick Henry, who has rushed for 200 or more yards in the last three meetings between these two teams. Luckily for Tennessee, missing Henry won’t factor too much in the outcome.

Game pick: Titans 27 Texans 13

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets – 1 p.m. on CBS (Spero Dedes, Jay Feeley)
Turns out Joe Flacco will get a start for the Jets after all.

Game pick: Dolphins 21 Jets 10

New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles – 1 p.m. on FOX (Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth, Shannon Spake)
This is an interesting game. The Saints have lost two straight games raising questions of their playoff prospects and them wasting opportunities to potentially be in first place in the NFC South.

Philadelphia continues to show signs of life with Jalen Hurts leading the offense. Their defense is also making plays, which is important.

Game pick: Saints 24 Eagles 21

Washington Football Team @ Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez, Laura Okmin)
Cam Newton claims he’s back. Now we’ll see if he gets the start Sunday for the Panthers. What can’t be denied is the possibility of him providing the Panthers offense a much-needed spark that could potentially propel the Panthers towards a playoff berth.

Washington finally broke through with a signature win. Last year they started 2-7, but closed with a 5-2 finish to win the NFC East. But with the Cowboys showing no signs of slowing down, a repeat division title seems out of the question. A wild card berth is still in play, but losing Chase Young for the season is a blow to a defense already vastly underachieving.

Game pick: Panthers 24 Football Team 21

San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 p.m. on FOX (Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston, Jennifer Hale)
The 49ers are getting healthy, and they may have rediscovered their identity in Monday night’s blowout win over the Rams which is running the football, ball control, hitting a few big plays on offense and defense. That identity got them to the Super Bowl two years ago. It’s not too late for them this year to get hot and make a run at a playoff berth.

Jacksonville has made some small, incremental improvements throughout the season. They are 2-2 in their last four games since starting 0-5, and they have been competitive in most of their games this season. It’s going to be a slower development for rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence than maybe some expected, but at least he and the Jaguars aren’t getting run off the field every single week.

Game pick: 49ers 28 Jaguars 20

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks – 4:25 p.m. on FOX (Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma, Lindsay Czarniak)
The word is that Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray is hoping to play Sunday after missing the previous two games with an ankle injury.

Speaking of injury, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson returned from his finger injury last week and did not play well at all. It was his first game back, and the Seahawks were facing a stingy Packers defense. But if the Seahawks aspire to make the playoffs, he’s going to have to be damn near perfect given Seattle’s shaky defense and slim margin for error.

Fortunately for Seattle, they have owned Arizona for years, and I think that trend will continue Sunday.

Game pick: Seahawks 28 Cardinals 21