NFL week 14 preview

CINCINNATI — I think we’re now at the point in the NFL season where we can say it’s getting late. I feel that way as a Bengals fan heading into a crucial game Sunday against the 49ers that could prove massive towards this team’s playoff hopes. Speaking of playoff hopes, there are several games this week matching playoff hopefuls and teams looking to gain separation in their division title races.

With that, here’s a preview and breakdown of the key games this week and previews and score predictions for all 14 games this week.

Thursday Night Football: Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-7) – 8:20 p.m. on NFL FOX and NFL Network (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink)
Amazon Prime Video (Andrea Kremer and Hannah Storm)
Amazon Scout’s Feed (Bucky Brooks, Daniel Jeremiah, Joy Taylor)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Kugler, Tony Boselli)
This is a crucial game for both teams. Pittsburgh sits just outside the playoff picture at No. 8 in the AFC while Minnesota sits at No. 9 in the NFC even after their inexplicable loss to the Detroit Lions Sunday.

Once again, just when you’re ready to count Pittsburgh out, they, at least for now, saved their season with a win over the Ravens last Sunday. That win came amid the report that this may be quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s final season with the team. Even though he hasn’t looked nearly his best this season, Big Ben has not thrown an interception in six of his last seven games and has a 90+ quarterback rating in those six games as well.

Minnesota is a good team, but they cannot close games. Each of their seven losses this season have been by eight points or less and five have come on the last play of the game. In previous years, the blame would go directly to quarterback Kirk Cousins for the close losses. But Cousins has not been the reason this Vikings team has lost close games this season. Consider: he’s second in the entire league with a 106.3 rating and passed for 340 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the loss to Detroit. He’s delivering, but this Vikings defense is not, and that’s what is costing this team games. While he’ll have Justin Jefferson to throw to in this game, he’ll be without Adam Thielen who will miss Thursday night’s game with an ankle injury. At the time of this preview being published, running back Dalvin Cook is questionable with a shoulder injury.

I think this game will be close, especially since Minnesota is essentially a lock to play a close game every week. But given that they haven’t executed more often than they have this season with the game on the line, I’m picking Pittsburgh to win on a game-winning Chris Boswell field goal.

Game pick: Steelers 24 Vikings 21

Dallas Cowboys (8-4) @ Washington Football Team (6-6) – 1 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Pam Oliver)
I can’t remember the last time both teams in this rivalry were this good this late in the season, but the NFL is better off with both teams in the playoff picture.

Dallas got back on track with a win last Thursday night at New Orleans to snap their two-game losing streak. Dak Prescott wasn’t dominant last week, but he still is fifth in the NFL with 288.2 passing yards per game. Dallas is a team, though, that is at their best when they run the football. Ezekiel Elliott needs just five yards to reach 1,000 yards from scrimmage and Tony Pollard has a career high 861 yards from scrimmage and is third in the NFL averaging 5.6 yards a carry. Defensively this team is better than they’ve been in recent seasons. Cornerback Trevon Diggs leads the NFL with nine interceptions and is second in 14 passes defended while rookie linebacker Micah Parsons leads all rookies with 10 sacks.

Just a month ago, Washington was 2-6 and seemingly headed for a lost season. Now, they’ve won four straight and are currently sixth in the NFC playoff picture. Much of their success the past four weeks can be attributed to quarterback Taylor Heinicke, who ranks third in the NFL since week 10 with a 77.3 completion percentage and has a 100+ quarterback rating in three of his last four games. While the defense has been a disappointment this season- they’re 24th in scoring and 18th in yards allowed- one player has been enjoying a statistically great season is linebacker Cole Holcomb with over 100 tackles and over five passes defended.

I think this game will be close. Washington took both meetings last season, but the Cowboys didn’t have Dak Prescott in either matchup. They do in this one, and I think he will be the difference in an ultra-important game for both teams.

Game pick: Cowboys 27 Football Team 21

Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) – 1 p.m. on CBS (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn)
Another crucial game this week. For Las Vegas, they’re looking to keep pace in the AFC West and conference playoff race. For Kansas City, they’ve won five in a row and they’re looking to gain separation in the AFC West as we get deeper into December.

Once again, Las Vegas is slumping in the second half of the season. They’re 1-4 in their last five games, but this may be their best team in the last three years to overcome second-half adversity. Quarterback Derek Carr is better than you think he is. He has gone three straight games without an interception and is second in the entire NFL in passing yards. What could help the Raiders is if they finally establish a running game. They have the running back to do it as Josh Jacobs is one of just two running backs in the league with seven or more rushing touchdowns in each of the last three seasons but has not carried the ball more than 16 times in any game this season.

Kansas City has owned the Raiders in recent history. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes and tight end Travis Kelce love playing against the Raiders. Mahomes has passed for 340 or more yards and two or more touchdowns in his last three games against the Raiders, and Kelce has 53 receptions for 781 yards and five touchdowns in his last seven games against Las Vegas.

Both these teams can run up the score. But Kansas City has really been improving on defense over their past five games. I think that will be the difference in this game.

Game pick: Chiefs 31 Raiders 17

Buffalo Bills (7-5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) – 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson)
I think Buffalo may be getting too much of a pass. Their season is teetering, and this matchup against a Tampa Bay team that is garnering a lot of momentum right now does not bode well for the Bills.

When Buffalo is at their best, their offense is electric. Josh Allen has proven that last season’s record-breaking season as a Bills quarterback was not a fluke. He’s one of three quarterbacks in the AFC- Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert are the other two- with 25 or more touchdown passes. And in the Bills last two road games- a 45-17 win at the Jets and a 31-6 win at New Orleans- Allen has multiple touchdown passes in each of those games and a 115+ quarterback rating.
If only Bills head coach Sean McDermott knew Allen posted those numbers outside the wind tunnel that is Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. That realization could have won them the game Monday night against the Patriots when the weather conditions were nowhere near ideal for throwing. What this Bills offense does not have, and hasn’t had since Thurman Thomas, is a running game. Consider: Devin Singletary leads the Bills with 495 rushing yards and can become the first Bills running back with three straight 500+ yards rushing in each of his first three seasons since… Travis Henry in 2001-2003. That’s the difference between this inconsistent Bills offense and the Bills offenses of the early 1990s; those Bills offenses could run the football. This Bills offense cannot.

Tom Brady is leading the NFL in passing yards and passing touchdowns. Shocked? Can’t say I am. And against Buffalo in his career? He is 32-3 with 72 touchdowns and 25 interceptions. And the change of scenery shouldn’t change that success against Buffalo this time around, as he has 39 touchdowns to just 13 interceptions in 13 career home starts with Tampa Bay. Brady also now has a fully healthy receiving corps to work with and a complimentary defense getting healthier.

Tampa Bay is the only team with a winning record in the NFC South, so this is really a house money game for them in that regard. But Buffalo needs to win this game to assert themselves back into the thick of the AFC playoff picture. But given the makeup of these two teams, I see Tampa Bay winning this game comfortably.

Game pick: Buccaneers 34 Bills 20

Sunday Night Football: Chicago Bears (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3) – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Kathryn Tappen) Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic)
Why is this game on Sunday Night Football? Just why? Chicago’s season is lost and Green Bay is on another level talent-wise.

The Packers bye week could not have come at a better time. Aaron Rodgers got the chance to rest his injured toe, and there’s a chance the Packers may be getting back some key players on both sides of the ball. The hope is that cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za’Darius Smith can return on defense and offensive lineman David Bakhtiari can return to bolster a thin Packers offensive line. It’s amazing how good and talented the Packers roster is right now, but then add those three aforementioned players and they could be even better.

Game pick: Packers 41 Bears 14

Monday Night Football: Los Angeles Rams (8-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (10-2) – 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick, Lisa Salters)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Kurt Warner)
My favorite game of the week. This one could be fun, if the Rams team that started 7-1 and beat Jacksonville 37-7 last week shows up.

The Rams are a polarizing team. After week one, I said they were the team outside my favorite team I was most looking forward to watching this season. And through the first three weeks of the season, it was hard pressed to find any team that was going to beat them. But since the calendar flipped to November, they’ve had their struggles. I’m still a believer in Matthew Stafford, and he’s having his best season as a quarterback. Cooper Kupp is having an unbelievable year at wide receiver. Right now he has 100 receptions for 1,366 yards and 11 touchdowns. He’s on pace to finish the season with 142 receptions for 1,925 yards and 16 touchdowns. Sheesh!
But with the Rams, it’s one thing to be flashy, the fun team. But as has been the case going back to Super Bowl XXXVI against New England, they want nothing to do with playing physical. Even their defense, ranked No. 1 last year in yards allowed and scoring, has dropped to 12th and 16th respectively in those categories.

Speaking of playing physical, that’s something the Arizona Cardinals have acquired this season. They are a team that wants to be an air-raid offense with quarterback Kyler Murray and head coach Kliff Kingsbury, but they can also go to war with any team. Running back James Conner has 12 rushing touchdowns to lead the NFC. And on defense, linebacker Chandler Jones has 8.5 sacks and fellow linebacker Markus Golden has 10 sacks to lead the team. They can be electric on offense, but they also have what it takes to win multiple playoff games with their element of physicality.

Right now, the Cardinals hold the No. 1 seed in the NFC. A win Monday night would create some much-needed separation in the NFC West in the form of a three-game lead with four games to go and the season sweep of the Rams. I think they will do that.

Game pick: Cardinals 31 Rams 21

Other week 14 games

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10) @ Tennessee Titans (8-4) – 1 p.m. on CBS (Spero Dedes, Jay Feely)
Tennessee is coming into this game off a bye week and dragging a two-game losing streak. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill struggled in the Titans two straight losses including a four-interception clunker at home against the hapless Houston Texans. Running back Derrick Henry’s absence- he’s not expected back until at least early-January- has certainly caused the Titans offense to lose its dynamic element, but it is worth noting that running backs Dontrell Hillard and D’Onta Foreman each rushed for 100 yards in the blowout loss at New England. Against a Jaguars team that allows 116.8 rushing yards per game, the Titans could find success again running the ball in this game.

Game pick: Titans 30 Jaguars 13

Seattle Seahawks (4-8) @ Houston Texans (2-10) – 1 p.m. on FOX (Chirs Myers, Daryl Johnston, Jennifer Hale)
I’ll give Seattle credit for their win last week against San Francisco. I do feel for Russell Wilson this season. None of what is happening within the Seahawks organization is his fault. This may be his final season with the team. As for this Sunday, he and Seattle get the luxury of playing a Texans team that did not cross the Colts 40-yard line in last week’s game.

Game pick: Seahawks 31 Texans 10

New Orleans Saints (5-7) @ New York Jets (3-9) – 1 p.m. on CBS (Andrew Catalon, James Lofton, Sheree Burruss)
The Saints enter this game on a five-game losing streak, but they’re still in the hunt for a wild card berth. Taking care of business in this game and then beating Tampa Bay next week- a team they seemingly have their number against- would get them to 7-7 and then who knows what could happen. The key for them is getting healthy. Both of their starting offensive tackles, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk, are questionable ahead of Sunday’s game and defensive end Marcus Davenport is also questionable.

Game pick: Saints 21 Jets 14

Atlanta Falcons (5-7) @ Carolina Panthers (5-7) – 1 p.m. on FOX (Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma, Lindsay Czarniak)
Carolina plays their first game after offensive coordinator Joe Brady was fired. But is firing Brady really going to change the Panthers fortunes?

Atlanta, despite once again struggling last Sunday against Tampa Bay, still is in the hunt for a wild card berth.

Game pick: Falcons 24 Panthers 14

Baltimore Ravens (8-4) @ Cleveland Browns (6-6) – 1 p.m. on CBS (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Melanie Collins)
This is a very important game. Both teams’ seasons may be heading downhill.

Lamar Jackson has looked nothing like himself over his last three games with just three touchdowns to six interceptions. And that may be the reason, in addition to all their injuries, why they’re 1-2 in those three games and, perhaps, hanging on by a thread to the AFC North lead.

Cleveland is a mess. Everybody was healthy, and they could only muster 10 points on a night when Lamar Jackson threw four interceptions against them in week 12. Baker Mayfield is too banged up to be throwing the ball 37 times in a game as he did at Baltimore. And for as much as it’s easy to criticize him, he has gone four straight starts against AFC North teams without an interception. But it’s the running game the Browns need to lean on as Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are the only running back tandem in the league with five rushing touchdowns each.

In a unique situation, this is the Browns second straight game against the Ravens. Given that and the Ravens slew of injuries, I think Cleveland will keep their playoff hopes alive for at least another week.

Game pick: Browns 21 Ravens 17

New York Giants (4-8) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-5) – 4:05 p.m. on FOX (Adam Amin, Mark Schlereth, Shannon Spake)
The Chargers delivered with their season on the line last Sunday in Cincinnati. Justin Herbert is an absolute stud at quarterback, and he has an opportunity this Sunday to notch his third game in a row with 300+passing yards and two+ touchdowns. Los Angeles has alternated wins and losses since week nine, and they can’t overlook this game ahead of next Thursday night’s crucial showdown at home against Kansas City.

Game pick: Chargers 30 Giants 17

Detroit Lions (1-10-1) @ Denver Broncos (6-6) – 4:05 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Kugler, Mark Sanchez, Laura Okmin)
I’m really happy for head coach Dan Campbell and the Lions. They finally won their first game last Sunday, and Campbell handled the win and everything surrounding the honoring of the Oxford High School shooting victims with class. He really is one of the genuinely good guys in the league.

Denver is wildly inconsistent, and, yet, they are still in the hunt for a wild card berth. Their running game needs to be what carries this offense down the stretch, and their defense needs to continue to be solid.

Game pick: Broncos 24 Lions 17

San Francisco 49ers (6-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (7-5) – 4:25 p.m. on CBS (Greg Gumbel, Adam Archuleta, AJ Ross)
More on this game in my podcast’s weekly preview with Justin Cashman. Where this game comes down to for the Bengals? Do they enough depth at linebacker to contain 49ers tight end George Kittle and can they handle the 49ers sophisticated run scheme?

Game pick: 49ers 31 Bengals 28