CINCINNATI — After one of the wildest regular-seasons in recent NFL history, 14 teams survived to make the playoffs and the road to Super Bowl LVI at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.
This is a playoff field where anyone can win the whole thing. Of the 14 teams in the playoffs, there are 12 really good teams and two good teams from Pennsylvania.
For the first time in NFL Playoff history, Monday Night Football will have a postseason broadcast, making three days of football on Wild Card weekend.
Below is a a preview of every Wild Card game this weekend with opening thoughts, cases for both teams, game picks and closing arguments.
Saturday
5. Las Vegas Raiders @ 4. Cincinnati Bengals – 4:35 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Drew Brees, Kathryn Tappen)
Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic Jr., Ben Leber)
Opening Thoughts: Is this finally the time the Bengals end their drought of 31 years without a playoff win? Cincinnati has lost its last eight playoff games, but the streak can, and should, stop at nine with No. 9 leading the way at quarterback.
The Case for the Raiders: This is a really resilient team, and they’re also a really good team. I think it was easy to view the Raiders as a punching bag with all of their off the field issues this season, but quarterback Derek Carr and interim head coach Rich Bacassia did an admirable job navigating this team through adversity and into the playoffs.
Derek Carr is not talked about nearly as much as other premier quarterbacks in the NFL, but he is one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league with eight straight 3,000-yard seasons to start his career. Carr posted his best season this year with 4,804 yards, fifth-most in the NFL, and ranked fourth with 68.4 completion percentage.
Carr has a talented cast of weapons to throw to, headlined by third-year rising star wide receiver in Hunter Renfrow (103 rec., 1,038 yards, 9 TD) and tight end Darren Waller (55 rec., 665 yds, 2 TD). Both pass catchers are great at getting open, and are dangerous in the open field. Wide receivers Bryan Edwards (34 rec., 571 yds, 3 TD) and Zay Jones (47 rec., 546 yds, TD) are also dangerous, but their success hinges on Carr’s ability to connect with them down the field. What makes the Raiders even more dangerous offensively is when they can run the football. Third-year running back Josh Jacobs only rushed for 872 yards in the regular-season, but he finished with two 100-yard games in the Raiders last four games.
Defensively, the Raiders are driven by their pass rush. Defensive ends Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby combined for 18 sacks during the regular-season, and Crosby was tremendous in last Sunday night’s thrilling win against the Chargers. Linebacker Denzel Perryman leads the team in tackles with a whopping 154. Cornerbacks Brandon Facyson and Casey Hayward Jr. had 13 and nine passes defended respectively, but this is a defense that only forced six interceptions and recovered just nine fumbles.
The Case for the Bengals: Worst to first. The Bengals won the AFC North, a division in which the other three teams were in the discussion back in the preseason as to who would eventually win it. There were flashes throughout the season as to how good the Bengals could be, but they couldn’t establish any consistency. That is, until the last four weeks of the regular-season when they won three straight including victories over the Ravens and Chiefs at home to win the division.
In those games against Baltimore and Kansas City, quarterback Joe Burrow was on another level. He threw for 525 yards against Don Martindale’s Ravens defense, and as if that wasn’t enough he threw for 446 yards in the division clinching game against Kansas City the following week. Both performances also included four touchdowns and no interceptions. In just his second season and coming off a major knee injury, Burrow led the NFL in completion percentage, was sixth in passing yards and eighth in touchdown passes.
While Burrow is the face of the franchise, Cincinnati’s biggest strength is its receiving corps. The Bengals used the fifth pick in the NFL Draft on wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. It was a pick highly scrutinized at the time, but the return on investment has sent that criticism to Bruce Smith’s quarterback grave. Chase not only broke the rookie record for receiving yards in a season and set the Bengals franchise record for receiving yards in a season, he also led the AFC in receiving yards at 1,455. Remember when he couldn’t catch a pass in training camp?
It’s not just Chase, though. Second-year wide receiver Tee Higgins persevered through injuries in the first half of the season to post three straight 100-yard games and then a 12 reception, 196 yard, two touchdown performance against the Ravens in the second half of the season. If opposing teams want to double team Chase, they can… just knowing Higgins is on the opposite side of the field.
Tyler Boyd once again posted a solid year in the slot and had touchdowns in each of the Bengals last three wins that locked down the AFC North title. Boyd has maybe been overlooked at times with the emergence of Chase, but his timely catches have proven fruitful on crucial drives in crucial games this season.
But, perhaps, the key to the Bengals offensive success this season has been running back Joe Mixon. Mixon ranked third in the NFL with 1,205 rushing yards and rushed for 13 touchdowns, and he delivered one of his best performances of the season at Las Vegas in week 11 when he rushed for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 30 rush attempts.
The Bengals free agency class was focused on improving the defense, and every free agent signing paid huge dividends this season. Defensive end Trey Hendrickson finished with 14 sacks, defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi added seven of his own, and cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton were the highest graded cornerbacks in zone coverage this season per Pro Football Focus. Second-year linebacker Logan Wilson had a breakout year with 100 tackles and four interceptions. The Bengals improved this year in both yards and points allowed but are still susceptible to giving up big plays to teams that can go over the top.
Game Pick: Bengals 31 Raiders 17
Closing Argument: I think this is a good matchup for the Bengals. The Raiders are hot coming into the playoffs, but they’re coming off a highly emotional 70 minutes against the Chargers last Sunday night and now have to fly cross country to play a game in cold weather. The Bengals went with a conservative approach in the regular-season meeting between the two teams, and I think Mixon will have another big day on the ground Saturday. But I also think Joe Burrow, who’s playing like the best quarterback in the NFL right now, will have much more of an impact in the matchup this time around. Maxx Crosby is a concern for the Bengals offensive line, but I think the game will evolve in the Bengals being able to do whatever they want on offense. Cincinnati wins their first playoff game since Jan. 6, 1991.
6. New England Patriots @ 3. Buffalo Bills – 8:15 p.m. on CBS (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn)
Radio: Westwood One (John Sadak, Ross Tucker, Steve Tasker)
Opening Thoughts: It’s only fitting that these two teams are playing each other for a third time this season.
The Case for the Patriots: Lost in the craziness of this NFL season is that the Patriots are in the playoffs as a wild card team, the first time that’s happened in Bill Belichick’s time with the Patriots. This is a typical Patriots team. They do a lot of fundamentals well: play defense, run the ball, don’t turn the ball over.
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones had a successful rookie season passing for nearly 4,000 yards and completing over two thirds of his passes. Jones certainly had a role in the Patriots winning 10 games, but he was largely aided by an offensive line that only allowed 28 sacks and a running game led by Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. But Jones did do a great job of spreading the targets and yardage around the Patriots receiving corps. There’s no one go-to guy in New England. Three different receivers had 50 or more receptions and 600 yards. This may not be a receiving corps headlined by a star receciver, but it’s a deeper corps than one might think.
New England’s defense is really good on all three levels. That’s what has made great defenses in New England over the years is that they’re great team defenses. Free agent signing linebacker Matthew Judon recorded 12.5 sacks, linebacker Kyle Van Noy tallied five sacks and 10 passes defended and cornerback J.C. Jackson defended 23 passes and intercepted eight. Not only do the Patriots allow the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points, they are also an opportunistic defense with 30 takeaways. And playing a Buffalo offense that can be reckless at times, that could be advantage Patriots.
This may not be the most vaunted or feared New England team. They have a lot of limitations with a rookie quarterback and no game-breaking receiver. But they have Bill Belichick and a defense that will always give them a chance.
The Case for the Bills: When the Bills are on, they’re on fire. Their offense can run up the score on anybody. But when they’re off, they’re vulnerable. They’ve been the latter at times this season, most notably in the beginning of December when they lost back-to-back games to New England and Tampa Bay. But they’ve won their last four games since then, including a win at New England, in wrapping up the AFC East title.
Josh Allen is a gunslinger, and more often than not he delivers. He finished seventh in the NFL with 36 touchdowns and eighth in passing yards at over 4,400. It helps when you have one of the most prolific receivers in the game in Stefon Diggs, who posted 103 receptions, 1,225 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. But it’s not just Diggs. Ten different players caught a touchdown for Buffalo this season, and if Diggs is double teamed against the Patriots there are other weapons for Allen to throw the ball to in wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Gabriel Davis and tight end Dawson Knox.
The one problem for Buffalo is they don’t have a running game. It’s kind of ironic that that’s who they are given the environment in which they play in. But Allen’s arm is so strong that offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has made this into a pass-heavy offense.
This Bills defense is strong. They can rush the passer from all three levels, and they can create turnovers. While most of the talk coming from the Bills is their offense, their defense quietly finished tops in yards and points allowed.
Game Pick: Bills 28 Patriots 18
Closing Argument: It’s hard betting against Bill Belichick in the playoffs, but this Patriots team is limited. We praised Belichick and the Patriots gameplan they deployed in the first meeting between these two teams. But you know what that gameplan also showed? That the Patriots are limited in their passing game. And it has showed over their last four games as Jones has thrown for just six touchdowns and five interceptions over that span. Against Buffalo, Jones was only 14 of 32 for 145 yards and two interceptions. Now you’re running your rookie quarterback out in a playoff game on the road in a hostile environment. This game will show why Tom Brady was the reason why the Patriots won six Super Bowls way more so than because of Bill Belichick.
Sunday
7. Philadelphia Eagles @ 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1:05 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Radio: Westwood One (Tom McCarthy, Ron Jaworski, Derek Rackley)
Opening Thoughts: I think it’s fascinating the Eagles are in the playoffs, but I think they will be vastly overmatched by Tampa Bay. This is the weakest matchup of wild card weekend.
The Case for the Eagles: I badly underestimated the Eagles before the season started, picking them to go 3-14. I just didn’t know what direction this team was heading in and I didn’t think their roster was any good. But to mine, and the surprise of many others, the Eagles wound up going 9-8 and making the playoffs.
Philadelphia now has a direction with their offense and their quarterback Jalen Hurts, and that is they are a run first team. Hurts led all NFL quarterbacks in rushing yards and touchdowns, and the Eagles rushed for a league-high 2,715 yards as a team.
They’re not explosive through the air, but rookie first round pick Devonta Smith did rack up over 900 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Tight end Dallas Goedert also contributed 830 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season.
One thing about the Eagles that gets overlooked is their offensive line, a line that paved the way for the Eagles ground attack and kept Hurts upright only giving up 26 sacks throughout the season.
Another underrated aspect to this Eagles team is their defense, ranking tenth in yards allowed per game. They’re stout up front with defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and defensive end Josh Sweat each totaling 7.5 sacks and linebackers Alex Singleton and T.J. Edwards each racking up over 130 sacks.
The Case for the Buccaneers: Tampa Bay’s 13-4 record is impressive because of the adversity they have faced with injuries and the drama with Antonio Brown.
Tom Brady led the league in passing yards and touchdowns at age 44. But what stands out most to me about his season is his ability to lead Tampa Bay through all the adversity they faced. Brady has now been the on-field leader of seven teams coming off a Super Bowl championship, and he has the Buccaneers in position to repeat as Super Bowl champions this year.
What Tampa Bay has going for them is getting wide receiver Mike Evans and running back Leonard Fournette back for the playoffs and tight end Rob Gronkowski staying healthy as well.
What makes Tampa Bay’s defense so good is their cornerbacks are shutdown corners and cant take the ball away. Same too with their safeties. Their secondary is one of the best in the league. And their secondary doesn’t have to do much because their defensive line is great at rushing the quarterback… by just rushing four. Add in linebackers Lavonte David and Shaq Barrett returning and Tampa Bay’s defense is fully loaded once again for a Super Bowl run.
Game Pick: Buccaneers 45 Eagles 21
Closing Argument: The Eagles are a great story, but I think they will be overmatched by the Buccaneers. Philadelphia went 0-7 during the regular season against teams with a winning record in the regular-season, and I think their receivers will be overmatched by Tampa Bay’s corners. Tampa Bay’s quest for a Super Bowl repeat will get off to a good start with a win this Sunday.
6. San Francisco 49ers @ 3. Dallas Cowboys – 4:40 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson)
Nickelodeon (Noah Eagle, Nate Burleson, Gabrielle Neveah Green, Young Dylan) Amazon Prime Video
Radio: Westwood One (Spero Dedes, Tony Boselli, Laura Okmin)
Opening Thoughts: My favorite game of the week. A throwback to the 90s. This will, I believe, be the best game of the week.
The Case for the 49ers: No team should want to play the 49ers in the playoffs. When they are on top of their game, they are tough to beat. Their offense is driven by their running game, whether that means they are utilizing their running backs or wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Jimmy Garoppolo is a quarterback who doesn’t put up the flashiest numbers, but he doesn’t turn the ball over and completes over 68 percent of his passes. And anytime George Kittle is on the field, he must be accounted for. Kittle battled through injuries this season to total 71 receptions, 910 yards and six touchdowns.
Defensively, Nick Bosa is a gameplan wrecker. Coming off a 2020 season cut short due to a torn ACL, Bosa responded this season with 15.5 sacks. Behind him is linebacker Fred Warner, who posted 137 tackles this season. The 49ers secondary is void of any serious playmakers, so their front seven is going to be the key to the defense being able to contain the NFL’s top scoring offense in the Cowboys.
The Case for the Cowboys: Here’s what I’ll say about the Cowboys: Dak Prescott is not the problem when they lose, nor is he holding them back. Prescott should be given more credit for what he has done this season than what he has actually been given. Coming off a devastating injury in 2020, Prescott finished in seventh in passing yards and tied for fourth in touchdown passes with Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
What goes wrong when the Cowboys aren’t winning are penalties and receivers dropping passes. For an offense that’s as good as any in the league, those two things can’t be happening.
The Cowboys defense was much improved this year, led by rookie linebacker Micah Parsons up front and cornerback Trevon Diggs intercepting 11 passes. I feel like, though, they live off of creating turnovers since they rank in the bottom half of the league in yards allowed. Against an efficient offense like the 49ers, turnovers maybe be the deciding factor.
Game Pick: Cowboys 31 49ers 28
Closing Argument: I think this game will go down to the wire. Both teams are really good and well-rounded, but premier quarterbacks win this time of year and Dak is the better quarterback than Jimmy G in this matchup.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers @ 2. Kansas City Chiefs – 8:15 p.m. on NBC (Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Trent Green, Olivia Dekker)
Opening Thoughts: How in the world are the Steelers in the playoffs? Like seriously! At what point in the season did they look like a playoff team?
The Case for the Steelers: Okay, for real, the Steelers are in the playoffs because they’re playing Steelers football: defense and running the football. T.J. Watt tied Michael Strahan for the single-season sack record with 22.5 sacks. Rookie running back Najee Harris rushed for 1,200 yards on over 300 carries, proving to be a workhorse down the stretch.
The Case for the Chiefs: This Chiefs team is beatable. They have shown that, even as we head down the stretch this season where they normally are at their strongest. Patrick Mahomes still had a great season, but it feels like the Chiefs just aren’t as lethal as they have been in years past. Their defense is still stout ranking eighth in the league at just 21.4 points allowed. Against Big Ben and the Steelers offense in Ben’s swan song, I think the Chiefs defense will turn in another standout performance.
Game Pick: Chiefs 37 Steelers 20
Closing Argument: I have been invited to Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement party. I will gladly be in attendance watching the game from the comforts of my own house.
Monday
5. Arizona Cardinals @ 4. Los Angeles Rams – 8:15 p.m. on ABC/ESPN (Steve Levy, Brian Griese, Louis Riddick, Lisa Salters)
ESPN2/ESPN+ (Peyton and Eli Manning and select guests)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Kugler, Kurt Warner, Ross Tucker)
Opening Thoughts: The Cowboys are the easy answer as has the most pressure of any team this week. But I actually think the Rams and Matthew Stafford face the most pressure and have the most to prove this week.
The Case for the Cardinals: Here’s a team that started 10-2 but lost four of its last five games. How good are they really? They’re still a really good team. For one, they have won seven road games this season by double digits, including a 37-20 victory at the Rams in week four.
In addition, Kyler Murray has become an elite quarterback in today’s NFL as he has 70 passing touchdowns and 20 rushing touchdowns through three seasons and in each of those three seasons amassed 3,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards.
This year Murray is aided by running back James Conner who led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns. This Cardinals team likes to get out and run.
The Case for the Rams: The reason why there is pressure on the Rams is because they assembled this year’s team to make a Super Bowl run. They traded for Matthew Stafford. They traded for Von Miller. They went out and got Odell Beckham Jr. midseason. If they don’t advance far in the playoffs, what good were those signings really?
Game pick: Rams 31 Cardinals 21
Closing Argument: Divisional matchups can be tricky in the playoffs. Both games between these two teams in the regular-season were won by the road team. But the Rams week 14 over the Cardinals was impressive, and it sent a statement. This Rams team is really good, well-rounded, balanced, and they will be the better team Monday night.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 