AFC Championship: 4. Cincinnati Bengals @ 2. Kansas City Chiefs – 3:05 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Evan Washburn, Jay Feely, Gene Steratore)
Radio: Westwood One (Ian Eagle, Tony Boselli, Ross Tucker)
These two teams played a thriller in week 17 of the regular-season, with the Bengals winning 34-31 on a game-winning field goal to clinch the AFC North. On the field after the game, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow said to Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes that he and the Bengals would see Mahomes and the Chiefs again in the playoffs. Sure enough, here we are.
Burrow and Mahomes are two of the AFC’s and NFL’s best quarterbacks, and they’re only 25 and 26 years old respectively. They are the headline players in this matchup, but both teams have so many other high-profile players who could have an impact in this game.
Cincinnati has, arguably, the best receiving corps in the NFL in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Chase is the favorite to win offensive rookie of the year, and he torched the Chiefs for 266 yards and three touchdowns in week 17 of the regular season.
Kansas City also has an elite receiving corps in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Mecole Hardman. Yes, Kelce is a tight end, but he is essentially a receiver, and a prolific one at that.
Both teams’ offenses are the story in this game, but their respective defenses could play an important role as well. Cincinnati’s defense has forced five turnovers in their two postseason wins while Kansas City has a pass rush capable of disrupting any offense.
What I’ve seen from the Bengals this postseason
It hasn’t been pretty in their two wins, but they have played winning football and it’s not all because of Joe Burrow. Yes, Burrow has been great in his first two postseason games, but the defense and rookie kicker Evan McPherson have made headlines as well.
Among the many unknowns going into the season was the Bengals defense. The Bengals front office made a lot of free agent acquisitions on that side of the ball, but were they going to make an incompetent defense the previous few seasons competent? Competitive? Turns out, those free agent signings paid off. Cincinnati doesn’t get run off the field by some of the NFL’s elite offenses. They are stout against the run, especially against Derrick Henry in the divisional round last week. They can force turnovers, as they have forced multiple turnovers in each of their first two playoff games and did so an additional five times this postseason.
If there was an award for postseason rookie of the year, Bengals rookie kicker Evan McPherson would be my pick to win it. He has been money through the Bengals first two postseason games, going 4-4 on field goal attempts in both games. And it’s not like they’ve been easy field goal attempts either. Only one of his attempts have come from under 30 yards, and three of his four attempts in Nashville last week came from at least 45 yards.
But for as great as McPherson is, the Bengals can’t keep heavily relying on him. Heavily relying on McPherson will not beat Kansas City. The Bengals are going to need to cash in with touchdowns once they reach Chiefs territory.
Another area of concern going into the season, and has remained throughout, is the offensive line. Joe Burrow was sacked a league-high 51 times in the regular-season, and he was sacked nine times last week against the Titans. The offensive line is going to have to hold up adequately to let Joe cook Sunday, but it won’t be easy going up against the likes of the Chiefs Chris Jones, Frank Clark and Melvin Ingram.
What I’ve seen from the Chiefs this postseason
The Chiefs won one of the best playoff games in NFL history last Sunday, and they won it because of their big three in Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.
Mahomes has been, once again, showing out in this postseason. Through the Chiefs two postseason wins this season, Mahomes has racked up 782 yards and eight touchdown passes while completing 76 percent of his passes. It’s as if the bright lights of playoff football don’t ever phase him.
It also helps that Mahomes has the likes of Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce to throw to. Kelce has established himself as one of the great playoff performers of his generation, and he caught the game-winning touchdown against Buffalo last week. The Bengals have struggled covering tight ends for a long time, and that issue could surface at the wrong time today.
Kansas City’s defense was great during its eight-game winning streak, but they have been less than stellar since Burrow and the Bengals carved them up in week 17. Against Buffalo, they let Josh Allen throw for 329 yards and four touchdowns- all four touchdowns and 201 of Allen’s 329 yard went to wide receiver Gabriel Davis. Sure their defense was good against Denver and Pittsburgh, but that’s Denver and Pittsburgh. They were carved up by Buffalo, and the Bengals, like the Bills, are an explosive offense.
Final thoughts
The Chiefs, I think, are exhausted from last week’s marathon heavyweight fight with Buffalo. And if you trace it back to the end of the regular-season, the Bengals are more rested than the Chiefs. Cincinnati rested its starters in week 18. Kansas City did not. The Bengals played the early Saturday game the last two weeks. Kansas City played the late Sunday game the last two weeks.
Where I think the Bengals can steal this game is their receiving corps making plays against a flawed Chiefs secondary. We saw what Buffalo’s receiving corps, particularly Gabriel Davis, did to them last week. Now send the Chiefs secondary out to cover the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins. All three receivers can take over a game.
I do worry about the Bengals offensive line letting Joe Burrow get sacked frequently. I worry about that every game. But Burrow doesn’t seem to get rattled by protection breakdowns. If the Chiefs decide to blitz, Burrow will make them pay- refer to the 3rd&27 conversion to Chase in the regular-season meeting between these two teams. In a game that may come down to who has the ball last, Burrow has led four game-winning drives this season including one in the playoffs. I’ll take my chances with that.
Game pick: Bengals 31 Chiefs 28
NFC Championship: 6. San Francisco 49ers @ 4. Los Angeles Rams – 6:40 p.m. on FOX (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi, Mike Perriera)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Kurt Warner, Laura Okmin)
It’s only fitting that this is round three between these two teams. It’s also only fitting that if Los Angeles is to go to the Super Bowl in its own stadium, they’re going to have to beat the team that’s been its kryptonite for the last three season: San Francisco.
How in the world are the 49ers still playing? It’s easy to ask that question, but there are reasons why they are here. This 49ers team is tough, resilient, experienced, they know who they are, and they don’t beat themselves.
The Rams are here because they are supremely talented. Look at all their starpower. Except for Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald, the Rams best players all were acquired via a trade or claimed off of waivers. Matthew Stafford was traded for to get the Rams to this point, one win away from the Super Bowl. Jalen Ramsey and Von Miller were traded for to bolster the defense on both the back and front ends. Odell Beckham Jr. was brought in to bolster the receiving corps, as if Kupp needed help.
Being aggressive in constructing the roster has gotten the Rams to this point. But how much will all of these trades and waiver wire claims mean if the Rams fall one game short of the Super Bowl in their own stadium- losing to their arch-rivals for a third time this season in the process?
What I’ve seen from the 49ers this postseason
Like I already mentioned, the 49ers don’t beat themselves. That’s why they’re playing in the NFC Championship tonight.
The 49ers aren’t flashy, but they play a winning brand of football. They run the football. They’re physical on defense. They’re well-coached. They’re versatile, especially Deebo Samuel.
Here’s what stands out to me about the 49ers: they are never out of any game. Green Bay was a far more talented team than they are, and, yet, there they were down just 10-3 late in the fourth quarter before blocking a punt and returning it for a touchdown and then kicking a game-winning field goal as time expired. Every time it felt like the Packers were going to pull away last week, the 49ers made a play to keep the game close.
Jimmy Garoppolo is an interesting story. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown yet this postseason. And that’s in addition to all the talk about the 49ers moving on from him in favor of 2021 third overall pick Trey Lance. And yet, Garoppolo is now one win away from taking the 49ers to the Super Bowl for the second time in three seasons.
When you play the 49ers, the key, for me, is being fundamentally sound. Fundamentally sound against their running game and their schemes. Fundamentally sound up front trying to contain Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Arden Key.
Then, of course, there’s George Kittle. For as much attention as Deebo Samuel gets for his amazing versatility, Kittle is this team’s most important offensive player. He’s made a living making defenders look silly trying to cover him or tackle him in space.
What I’ve seen from the Rams this postseason
All the moves the Rams made via a trade or the waiver wire are paying off. This team got over a huge hump last week in knocking out the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For as many mistakes as they made in the second half, quarterback Matthew Stafford was brilliant on the game-winning drive that may change his legacy.
Stafford was traded for to give the Rams a premier quarterback, one fit to play in Los Angeles. Showtime. Big arm. And he’s used his big arm to power the Rams to being one win away from the Super Bowl in their own stadium.
What helps Stafford is a strong receiving corps, led by triple crown winner Cooper Kupp. Kupp was masterful last week with nine receptions for 183 yards and a touchdown. His ability for timely big plays paid massive dividends on the Rams game-winning drive in Tampa Bay.
On defense, how special must it be to have Aaron Donald on one side of the defensive line and Von Miller on the other? Miller came up huge in last week’s win at Tampa Bay with a sack, forced fumble and fumble recovery. The Rams defense is strong from back to front.
Final thoughts
These two teams may not have been the two best teams in the NFC during the regular season, but they’re the two best teams in the postseason where it counts.
I love that it’s San Francisco-Los Angeles for a trip to the Super Bowl. Two long-time rival cities with two great offensive-minded coaches. The flashy sports car team from Los Angeles against the SUV do-it-all vehicle team from San Francisco.
But what I come back to is this: until a team beats its kryptonite, I can’t pick them to do so. I’m rolling with the history in this matchup
Game pick: 49ers 24 Rams 21
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 