Charleston, S.c. — We’ve got a playoff rivalry renewing itself Sunday night. We’ve got a divisional rivalry on Saturday night. We’ve got a highly-anticipated matchup on Sunday afternoon, and we’ve got a David vs. Goliath matchup on Saturday afternoon.
Four great matchups comprise this weekend’s divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, and it’s fair to say that the best eight teams are left standing.
Remember how compelling last year’s divisional round was? You know, how the first three games were decided on game-winning field goals and then Bills-Chiefs, it couldn’t possibly top the first three games. Well, we all know what happened there.
As for this year, we finally get the Burrow-Allen matchup we’ve been waiting for, and wouldn’t it be something if Damar Hamlin is at the game? And any playoff weekend that ends with Cowboys and 49ers is a good one.
But Saturday also has two compelling matchups, as the NFL darling Jaguars look to dethrone an AFC giant (hey, they ambushed Denver in 1996) and the Giants and Eagles renew their rivalry in the postseason (isn’t the NFL better when both the Giants and Eagles are good?)
So who will advance to Conference Championship next Sunday? Below is my preview of all four games this weekend.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs – 4:30 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Harlan, Olivia Dekker, Trent Green)
There’s a big three in the AFC: Kansas City, Buffalo and Cincinnati. There’s a big three of quarterbacks in the AFC: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Which team and quarterback are next? It could be the Jacksonville Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence.
Lawrence has flourished in his second season, and he showed his poise and resilience in overcoming four interceptions to bring the Jaguars back from a 27-0 deficit to beat the Chargers in the Wild Card round. And he’s got a good offense around him, with free agent signings paying off at wide receiver. Plus, don’t forget, their head coach, Doug Pederson, has been here before.
This game presents a huge opportunity for Lawrence to really show he’s a top 10 quarterback in the NFL and maybe the fourth-best quarterback in the arms-heavy AFC. What better way to prove it than by going into Arrowhead Stadium and beating Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
What we learned from the Jaguars Wild Card win over the Chargers: On their biggest stage in five years, the young Jaguars didn’t flinch. Down 27-0 to a talented Chargers team, the outlook looked gloom. But then Trevor Lawrence put the team on his back, throwing four touchdowns to four different receivers. In addition, running back Travis Etienne showed why he was the Jaguars other first-round pick in 2021, rushing for over 100 yards including 25 on the decisive fourth-and-one on the game’s final drive.
The Jaguars are also young on defense, but man, did they rise to the occasion when they needed to against the Chargers. Consider: the Chargers had four second half possessions. Only one of those occurred in the fourth quarter, and only one of those drives ended in points. The Jaguars defense showed inconsistencies at times this season, but they have been rock solid the last four weeks, especially in the second half last Saturday.
What we learned from the Jaguars-Chiefs regular-season game: The Chiefs controlled this game, but Jacksonville kept it close. Looking back, I think this was the game the Jaguars knew they could be a good team. Lawrence held his own, going 29 of 40 for 259 yards and two touchdowns. The only problem was he was sacked five times. Chiefs defensive end Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks, and he will be a player to watch in this game.
Kansas City outgained Jacksonville 486-315 in total yards, and they were 7-10 on third down. Jacksonville hung around, but they’re simply going to have to be better to beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.
The case for the Jaguars: Jacksonville is playing this game with house money. Their season won’t be viewed any differently if they lose.
But throughout their history, we’ve seen them pull off upsets in the divisional round. I mentioned the Ambush at Mile High in 1996. Well, there’s also their divisional round win at Pittsburgh in 2017 when they put up 45 points on that Steelers defense. And let’s not forget when they went toe-to-toe with the undefeated Patriots in 2007.
The Jaguars have the arsenal offensively to keep up with Kansas City. The question is: can their young defense get off the field in crucial moments? If they play like they did in the second half against the Chargers, the Jaguars have a chance at pulling off a huge upset.
The case for the Chiefs: Remember that conversation in the offseason of which team could knock off Kansas City in the AFC West? Rightfully so, considering the Chargers, Raiders and Broncos all massively improved this offseason… at least on paper. Despite losing Tyreek Hill and Tyrann Mathieu, the Chiefs finished tied for the NFL’s best record at 14-3. And Patrick Mahomes without Tyreek Hill? No problem. Over 5,000 yards passing, 41 touchdown passes and a likely second MVP award coming.
Travis Kelce is so good. There’s not other way to describe it. And the Chiefs new-look receiving corps performed well. JuJu Smith-Schuster finished just shy of 1,000 yards, Marquez Valdez-Scantling averaged over 16 yards a catch and running back Jerrick McKinnon even caught nine touchdowns.
You may not think of the Chiefs defense as much as their offense, but it’s still a big part of their team. Defensive tackle Chris Jones finished with 15.5 sacks, fourth in the NFL, and 17 tackles for loss, and the Chiefs finished with 55 sacks as a team. The Chiefs used to lose games because of their defense giving up too many points, but they only gave up 30 points one time this year and that was in week four against Tampa Bay.
Game pick: Chiefs 34 Jaguars 27
I think this game will be high-scoring. Jacksonville has an offense to keep up with Kansas City, but can their defense get off the field in crucial moments? The Jaguars have a history of pulling upsets in the divisional round before, but this is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. Are they ready for the moment? We’ll find out Saturday afternoon.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles – 8:15 p.m. on FOX (Joe Davis, Daryl Johnston, Pam Oliver, Kristina Pink)
Radio: Westwood One (Kevin Kugler, Laura Okmin, Ross Tucker)
A classic rivalry renewing itself for the fifth time in the postseason, Philadelphia looked like the NFL’s best team through the first 14 weeks of the season. But they limped down the stretch, whereas the Giants flourished in getting to the playoffs and then upsetting Minnesota in the Wild Card round. Philadelphia has home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs, but the Giants don’t fear anybody right now. But keep this in mind: the Giants haven’t won in Philadelphia since 2013.
What we learned from the Giants Wild Card win over the Vikings: The biggest thing that stood out to me is how good Daniel Jones looked. In his first playoff game, he played like Josh Allen did last year against New England. Jones went 24/35 for 301 yards and two touchdowns while adding 78 rushing yards on the ground.
But you know who I was most happy for? Running back Saquon Barkley. It might be hard to remember, but Barkley was the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Injuries hampered his production in his first four seasons, but he has enjoyed a great 2022 season. Barkley topped 1,300 yards and scored 10 touchdowns. In the Wild Card win at Minnesota, Barkley 53 yards rushing and two touchdowns and added 56 yards receiving.
What we learned from the Giants-Eagles regular-season games: Philadelphia won both games, but they were two very different wins. The Eagles walloped the Giants 48-22 in the first game, running for over 250 yards. But the Giants held their own in the second game, falling just short at 22-16. The key, though, is the Giants kept it close with their second-stringers playing against Philadelphia’s starters. That showed us the Giants can play with Philadelphia, and it’s hard to beat a team three times in a single season. The pressure is now on Philadelphia.
The case for the Giants: They know they can beat Philadelphia. You know why? Over the last five weeks, the Giants have beaten Washington on the road, lost to Minnesota on a game-winning field goal (they avenged that loss in the playoffs), crushed the Colts (they were supposed to) and gave the Eagles all they could handle. And for what it’s worth, the last two times the Giants have won their first playoff game… they went on to win the Super Bowl.
The case for the Eagles: Their recipe for winning is the same as the Giants: run the ball and hit timely plays in the passing game. But don’t let their rushing identity on offense fool you: this team is explosive in the passing game. When healthy, Jalen Hurts has become one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL. This season, he became just the third quarterback in NFL history with 3,500+ passing yards, 20+ touchdown passes and 10+ rushing touchdowns in a single season. And his receivers are reaping his improvements. A.J. Brown set the Eagles single-season record for receiving yards at 1,496 on 88 receptions, 11 of them going for touchdowns. Complementing him is Devonta Smith, making him and Brown the only duo in the NFL with 85+ receptions and 1,100+ yards
Defensively, the Eagles are a bear, ranking second in yards allowed and eighth in scoring. Linebacker Hassan Reddick, defensive ends Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave combined for 49 sacks, leading a defense that posted 70 sacks overall. Behind them is a secondary featuring cornerbacks Darius Slay and James Bradberry, the only cornerback duo to each have 14 or more passes defended and three or more interceptions this season. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson tied for the league lead in interceptions with six.
Game pick: Eagles 31 Giants 21
The Giants are a great story, but the Eagles are just too talented. It’s hard to beat a team three times in one season, but I think the Eagles are going to capitalize having a week off. Jalen Hurts should be healthy, and he is the driving force behind Philly’s offense.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills – 3 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Jay Feely)
Radio: Westwood One (Ian Eagle, Mike Mayock, Ross Tucker)
It’s only fitting these two teams are playing on Sunday. The Bengals and Bills fanbases are the two most deserving fanbases in the NFL of a Super Bowl title. And whoever wins this game could have destiny on their side to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in the desert in three weeks.
What we learned from the Bengals Wild Card win over the Ravens: It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals made plays when it mattered most. If there was any thought the “same old Bengals” existed, they don’t. They just beat an AFC North team in the Playoffs in a game where they were outplayed. They made the plays that mattered, especially the “Fumble in the Jungle.”
Offensively, wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was stellar with nine catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. Quarterback Joe Burrow wasn’t prolific, but he was accurate and decisive. Playing against a Ravens defense for the second straight week and third time in the season isn’t easy, so don’t read too much into the Bengals only mustering 234 yards of total offense last week.
What we learned from the Bills Wild Card win over the Dolphins: Don’t let the scoreboard fool you. Buffalo dominated this game. However, the Bills are the only team that can stop the Bills.
Buffalo turned the ball over three times last week, leading to 17 Dolphins points. Bills turnovers are the only reason why Miami had a chance in the game, but that could be a problem going forward. Allen threw 14 interceptions during the regular season, and his red zone issues are enough to keep the Bills from reaching their ultimate destination.
What we learned from the Bengals-Bills regular-season game: What we really learned in this game is the power of the NFL brotherhood. In the game, the Bengals offense looked electric. They moved the ball at will against a good Buffalo defense on their first two possessions. Buffalo moved the ball into the red zone on their first possession, but that’s where their drive stalled out. How much of what we saw in the first nine minutes of the game that were played will matter on Sunday remains to be seen, but if those first nine minutes are any indication this game on Sunday could be a shootout.
The case for the Bengals: You always have a chance with No. 9 on your side. Joe Burrow simply doesn’t give into the underdog narrative, and he’s not giving into it with this game. The Bengals simply don’t fear anybody, claiming “They gotta play us.” The Bengals won their last eight games of the regular season against the NFL’s toughest schedule, and they’re riding a nine-game winning streak into this game. No matter what happens in a game or who they don’t have healthy going into a game, this team is going to find a way to win. They know what it takes to win this time of year, having done it last year when they went to the Super Bowl.
The case for the Bills: They’ve been a front-running contender all season and for good reason. When at their best, Buffalo might be the best team in the NFL. They’ve got all the ingredients of a Super Bowl winning team: an MVP-caliber quarterback, a lethal number one wide receiver, a great defense, great head coach and they even have a strong running game.
The Bills will bring an eight-game winning streak into this game, and a lot of those wins were hard-earned. The narrative that they couldn’t win the close games is not as strong this year as it was in 2021, and that could serve them well in this game.
Game pick: Bengals 37 Bills 34
The winner of this game very well could go on to win the Super Bowl. I think both teams are going to come out firing on offense, but I trust No. 9 late in games. The Bengals have been great in clutch situations in the second half of the season, and they aren’t afraid to go on the road in the playoffs. They did it last year twice at Tennessee and Kansas City, and playing in Buffalo won’t scare Joe Burrow and the Bengals.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers – 6:30 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Radio: Westwood One (Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic, Ed Werder)
The best game saved for last this weekend, with an old playoff rivalry renewing itself. Cowboys. 49ers. In California. This is how it should be.
What we learned from the Cowboys Wild Card win over the Buccaneers: I have to give the Cowboys credit here. They went out and took care of business in a game they could have easily lost, and it proves this season might be different for Dallas. Dak Prescott was tremendous, going 25/33 for 305 yards and four touchdowns while adding another score on the ground. This was the Cowboys first road playoff win in 30 years, and this might be the best Cowboys team since they last won the Super Bowl in 1995.
What we learned from the 49ers Wild Card win over the Seahawks: The 49ers looked really, really good in their win last week. They’re playing like the best team in the NFC right now, and that’s with a third string quarterback. But then again, does Brock Purdy look like a third string quarterback? Like the last pick in the NFL Draft? Not with Kyle Shanahan running the show.
After trailing 17-16 at halftime, the 49ers unleashed a dynamic second half offensive attack. That’s where Purdy threw two touchdowns and added a rushing touchdown. The 49ers totaled 505 yard of offense, and they held Seattle to just a garbage time touchdown in the second half.
The case for the Cowboys: I was wrong about the Cowboys coming into this season. Thing looked bleak after their season-opening loss to Tampa Bay, where they lost Dak Prescott. Prescott returned in the middle of the season to lead a Cowboys team that finished second in scoring offense and has scored 24 or more points in 11 of its last 12 games.
On defense, the Cowboys are led by hybrid Micah Parsons, who became just third player since 1982 to post 13 or more sacks in his first two seasons If he can find a way, along with the other members of the Cowboys front, to get to Brock Purdy, the Cowboys could find themselves playing for their first NFC Championship since 1995.
The case for the 49ers: The 49ers have won 11 straight games, and they’re doing it behind a dynamic offense and stout defense. Nick Bosa led the NFL with 18.5 sacks, and he’s got a strong defense behind him to make plays. Offensively, the big plays can come from anybody whether it be Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel or George Kittle.
Game pick: 49ers 31 Cowboys 28
This game will be really close. But in the end, I trust the 49ers to pull this one out late. The Cowboys have lost their last six divisional round playoff games, and I think that streak will continue.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 