COLUMBUS, Ohio — It’s been nearly three weeks since Joe Burrow suffered a grade one calf strain on the Bengals second day of Training Camp, and he now appears to be on the fast track to play in week one.
When he went down, I had a lot of things I was thinking about. And one thing began to stand out: the urgency for the Bengals to get the number one seed in the AFC, and if the chances were diminished. Joe Burrow said earlier this offseason that there is a sense of urgency within the locker room. That’s a really strong statement, and it can be interpreted in multiple ways.
Obviously, the number one seed has the indispensable advantage of getting a first-round bye. To get it, a fast start is almost mandatory. The Bengals know they can’t start 0-2 again, or be sitting at 5-4 going into the bye week if the number one seed is their goal. But I also think there’s a sense of urgency after the events this offseason, headlined by the former players lost in free agency. Losing Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates was a wake-up call that anybody could leave during a given offseason. Bates we knew was most likely going to be gone, but Bell leaving was a shock. While the goal remains to keep Burrow and all the star players around him for as long as possible, that’s not a 100 percent given. I’m not saying this is going to be the last year with the talent currently on this team, but you just do never know. That could be why there’s a sense of urgency to win the Super Bowl this year.
When Burrow went down, head coach Zac Taylor initially said he would miss “several weeks.” That got me thinking about the start of the season, where the Bengals open with a road game at Cleveland and a home game against Baltimore. Those games will be physical as they already are. Now go into them with a, potentially, less than 100 percent quarterback. Does this mean they’ll start 0-2 again? I’m weary of it, but I don’t think that will be the case. A split in those games is, I believe, right now, the most likely outcome. But would that doom, just two games in, a shot at the number one seed for the Bengals?
Here’s my answer: they don’t need the number one seed to go to the Super Bowl. They’ve only needed one home playoff game each of the last two seasons to come tantalizingly close to going to back-to-back Super Bowls. Over the last two Playoffs, the Bengals are 3-1 against the top two seeds, with all those games coming on the road.
To put Joe Burrow’s success on the road in the playoffs in perspective, Tom Brady only won four playoff games on the road during his time with the Patriots. Peyton Manning only won two playoff games on the road in his career and didn’t even throw a touchdown in one of them. Drew Brees only won one road playoff game in his career. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t even played a road playoff game. Josh Allen is 0-3 in road playoff games. Justin Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, period, with his lone playoff game loss coming on the road. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in his career in the playoffs. Trevor Lawrence has only played in one road playoff game with a loss, and Jalen Hurts is 0-1 in road playoff games. Winning on the road in the playoffs is hard, yet Burrow and the Bengals are 3-1 in the last two years with their lone loss coming to Kansas City in a hyper-competitive AFC Championship last year.
Since the NFL Playoffs expanded to 12 teams in the 1990-91 season, there have been 33 number one seeds in the AFC. Do you know how many have won the AFC Championship? The answer: only 14. Fourteen of 33 number one seeds in the AFC since 1990 have played in the Super Bowl. Below are the number one seeds in the AFC that failed to reach the Super Bowl.
1992 Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
1994 Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
1995 Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
1996 Denver Broncos (13-3)
1997 Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars (14-2)
2000 Tennessee Titans (13-3)
2001 Pittsburgh Steelers (13-3)
2004 Pittsburgh Steelers (15-1)
2005 Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
2006 San Diego Chargers (14-2)
2008 Tennessee Titans (13-3)
2010 New England Patriots (14-2)
2012 Denver Broncos (13-3)
2018 Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
2019 Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
2021 Tennessee Titans (12-5)
To break that down further, 13 of those 19 teams had 13 or more wins and five teams had 14 or more wins. And think about some of those number one seeds and how good they looked in the regular season. New England in 2010: Tom Brady threw 34 touchdowns and just four interceptions in the regular season. Apparently Bart Scott and the Jets couldn’t wait to play them in the Divisional round of the Playoffs. San Diego in 2006: LaDanian Tomlinson sets the NFL record for touchdowns in a single season with 31 including 28 on the ground. He only got eight carries in the second half of the Chargers loss to New England in the Divisional round. Baltimore in 2019: won 12 straight games to end the regular season, including a streak of four straight games scoring 40 or more points. Next thing you know, they’re down 28-6 to the Titans in the Divisional round. Pittsburgh in 2004: only two times did they allow 30 or more points in their first 17 games. New England scored 24 in the first half en route to a 41-27 victory in the AFC Championship.
In case you were wondering, there have been 18 NFC number one seeds to play in the Super Bowl since 1990. So in total, only 32 of 66 number one seeds since the 1990-91 NFL Playoffs have played in the Super Bowl, a.k.a less than 50 percent. Does home field advantage, then, really matter in the Playoffs? Maybe not.
Okay, it actually does matter. Because in the last 10 years, seven number one seeds in the AFC have won the AFC Championship. The Chiefs have hosted the last five AFC Championship games, and although they haven’t been the number one seed in every one of those games, it’s been very difficult to go into Arrowhead Stadium and beat them. The only two teams to have done so: Tom Brady and the Patriots (and that took overtime in 2018) and Joe Burrow and the Bengals (and they had to come back from down 21-3 in the second quarter in 2021).
But given what the Bengals have accomplished in the last two playoffs, there is no doubt they are capable of walking into Arrowhead Stadium, should they have to again this season, and beating the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. And while the ambitious thought of the Bengals getting the number one seed and hosting the AFC Championship is valid and legitimate, keep in mind that there is more pressure on the home team and more anxiety within its fanbase. I always think about the 1998 NFC Championship between the Falcons and Vikings, where the Vikings were 11.5-point favorites. But as the Falcons continued to hang around for the entirety of regulation, the more pressure mounted on the Vikings and the more anxious their fans became. Atlanta won the game in overtime in one of the biggest upsets in Conference Championship game history.
The away team has nothing to lose in the Playoffs. Given that, sure it would be nice for the Bengals to get the number one seed and host the AFC Championship. The atmosphere would be electric. But all that is moot once the ball kicks off. Therefore, do they need the number one seed? I don’t think so. They went to the Super Bowl as the No. 4 seed in 2021. That’s enough proof they don’t need the number one seed this season.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 