COLUMBUS, Ohio — It’s that time of year again. It’s time to take a look at each of the eight divisions around the NFL and get ready for some football!
We start my eight division previews with the AFC East, a division stacked with talent from quarterbacks, to playmakers on both sides of the ball to the head coaches. While the Bills have won the division three years in a row, there seems to be a a new guard knocking heavily on the door. Plus, the Patriots might be the fourth best team in the division. Let that tell you how strong this division is.
Below are four burning questions (one for each team), the top player in the division, each of the 12 divisional matchups this season, the AFC East in prime time, a look at the head coaches and quarterbacks and final analysis.
Four Burning Questions
1. Will the Jets live up to the hype? I believe they will. Let’s not forget this team was 7-4 going into December last year, and that was with Joe Flacco and Zach Wilson at quarterback. Now they have Aaron Rodgers. He joins an offense that has undergone massive upgrades this offseason, adding running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard. That offense will complement a defense led by reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year and all-pro cornerback Sauce Gardner. Much of the hype this offseason has been centered around Aaron Rodgers, and rightfully so. But there are a lot of other players, mainly on defense, who return from last year’s team that showed a lot of progress through the first three months. I’m buying into the Jets.
2. Can Tua stay healthy? If so, can he elevate the Dolphins offense? When he’s on the field, Tua has led Miami to 21 wins over the last three seasons. And while he has increased the number of wins he’s led the Dolphins to each season, his injuries have also increased. That’s why the question of if he can stay healthy carries so much weight because I think Miami’s offense can be elite if he can. I know there’s a perception that it’s easy to play offense with the weapons the Dolphins have, but Tua showed me something last season. That week two come-from behind performance at Baltimore made me a believer. Combine more performances like that with good health, and Tua could take the Dolphins farther than they have been in three decades.
3. Is this the last chance for the current version of the Bills? The Bills were a trendy pick to win the Super Bowl last year, and they fell short of expectations. All of the key pieces return this season, but it feels like time is running out on the Bills to capitalize on all of the talent they have. It feels like the early 90s where Buffalo had so much talent but could never win the big one. The current version of the Bills has the kind of talent that reminds you of those 90s teams that went to four straight Super Bowls, but that’s the difference here. These Bills teams haven’t even played in a Super Bowl, let alone four straight. They’re running it back with a talented roster this season, but can this be the team that breaks through and takes down Cincinnati and Kansas City?
4. Is this the last season for Bill Belichick? I’ll start my answer to this by saying he’s not getting fired, if this is his last season. Robert Kraft would never fire him. But Kraft is going to have to determine, perhaps by the end of the season, if Belichick can still be the guy. The Patriots, for as competitive as they have been, just haven’t been the same team on offense since Tom Brady left. New offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien could turn this offense around, but missing the playoffs for a third time in four seasons should spark conversation around New England if it’s the end of the road for Belichick.
Top 10… or Top 17! Players
Just like on the Price is Right’s Hole in One… or Two!, we could just do the Top 10 players in the AFC East. But considering 17 were voted to the Top 100 Players of 2023, we might as well highlight all 17 of those players. The number that proceeds each player is their ranking in the Top 100 Players of 2023.
7. Tyreek Hill – Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins (119 rec., 1,710 yds, 7 TD, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 7th Pro Bowl)
Hill has posted back-to-back 100-catch seasons and set a career high in receiving yards last season. The now eighth-year wideout finished second in the NFL in both receptions and yards behind Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, and the change in scenery to Miami clearly didn’t drop his production. It only increased it. If his quarterback, Tua Tagavailoa, can stay healthy, Hill could be in for another huge season.
8. Josh Allen – Quarterback, Buffalo Bills (4,283 yds, 35 TD, 762 rushing yds, 7 rushing TD, selected to 2nd Pro Bowl)
Let’s get it straight, Allen is still a top five quarterback regardless if his erratic play reminds you of Brett Favre. He plays the position like a linebacker, which makes him very difficult for opposing defenses to play against. His numbers have dropped over the last two seasons, and I am concerned the loss of former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll is bigger than originally thought. But he’s still putting up elite numbers that no Buffalo quarterback has since Jim Kelly. How far he takes the Bills this season largely depends on him cutting down on mistakes.
16. Stefon Diggs – Wide Receiver, Buffalo Bills (108 rec., 1,429 yds., 11 TD, 2nd Team All Pro, selected to 3rd Pro Bowl)
With all of the attention on the rise of multiple star young wide receivers in the NFL (Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson), it’s easy to forget how good Diggs still is. Since arriving in Buffalo in 2020, Diggs has 100+ receptions in every season and double digit touchdowns in two. The latter he never reached in Minnesota and he only topped 100 receptions once. He thinks he’s one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, and he should be viewed as such.
23. Sauce Gardner – Cornerback, New York Jets (51 solo TKL, 2 INT, 20 PD (NFL co-leader), 1st Team All Pro, Selected to 1st Pro Bowl, NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year)
I’m still amazed that Sauce had three goals going into his rookie season: Defensive Rookie of the Year, Pro Bowl, 1st Team All Pro. Check, check and check! He’s already great, and he’s already the face of the Jets franchise. And this year, the rest of the NFL will get to see him six times in prime time and five more times in nationally televised games.
33. Matthew Judon – Linebacker, New England Patriots (36 solo TKL, 15.5 sacks, 3 PD, 2 FF, FR, selected to 4th Pro Bowl)
Judon has become one of the NFL’s best pass rushers over the last two seasons. Since arriving in New England in 2021, Judon has 28 sacks over his last two seasons. He’s been to the Pro Bowl four straight years and is a big reason why the Patriots defense will always give them a chance to win games and compete for a playoff spot.
36. Jalen Ramsey – Cornerback, Miami Dolphins (64 solo TKL, 2 sacks, 4 INT, 18 PD, 2 FF, FR, selected to 6th Pro Bowl)
Say what you will about Ramsey. He’s still among the best players at his position. While he won’t be back until at least December with a meniscus injury, he could have the opportunity to make an impact in a secondary that already has stalwarts in Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland.
40. Quinnen Williams – Defensive Tackle, New York Jets (35 solo TKL, 12 sacks, 4 PD, 2 FF, FR, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 1st Pro Bowl)
Williams earned a massive contract extension based off his 2022 season. The anchor of the Jets defensive line is primed for another huge season now that talks regarding of a contract extension have subsided.
44. Jaylen Waddle – Wide Receiver, Miami Dolphins (75 rec., 1,356 yds, 8 TD)
Waddle is Miami’s vertical, downfield threat. His ability to stretch the field only adds to Miami’s fast-paced offense.
46. C.J. Mosley – Linebacker, New York Jets (99 solo, TKL, sack, INT, 7 PD, FR, 2nd Team All Pro, Selected to 5th Pro Bowl)
Mosley has kind of gotten lost in the shuffle with all the great players on the Jets defense. He’s one of the most experienced linebackers in the division, and this year could be the year he gets to be a difference maker on a contending team.
51. Aaron Rodgers – Quarterback, New York Jets (3,695 yds, 26 TD)
This year will determine if Rodgers still has it approaching his 40th birthday in December. It’s a fresh start for one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, and he needs to take advantage of it.
57. Jordan Poyer – Strong Safety, Buffalo Bills (36 solo TKL, 8 PD, 4 INT, selected to 1st Pro Bowl)
A stalwart in Buffalo’s secondary.
69. Matt Milano – Linebacker, Buffalo Bills (72 TKL, 1.5 sacks, 3 INT (1 for a TD), 11 PD, 2 FR, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 1st Pro Bowl)
One of the best playmakers on Buffalo’s defense and one of the NFL’s most physical linebackers.
74. Garrett Wilson – Wide Receiver, New York Jets (83 rec., 1,103 yds, 4 TD, PFWA All-Rookie Team, Offensive Rookie of the Year)
The Jets nailed their first round draft picks in 2022 selecting both the offensive and defensive (Sauce Gardner) rookies of the year.
81. Christian Wilkins – Defensive Tackle, Miami Dolphins (43 solo TKL, 3.5 sacks, 6 PD)
The fun-loving big fella is the anchor of Miami’s defensive line.
82. Tua Tagavailoa – Quarterback, Miami Dolphins (3,548 yds, 25 TD, NFL passer rating leader (105.5))
If he stays healthy this season and continues his upward trajectory, he will be ranked much higher on this list in 2024.
83. Terron Armstead – Offensive Tackle, Miami Dolphins (selected to 4th Pro Bowl)
The Dolphins dodged a major bullet when Armstead went down in practice with a leg injury last week.
91. Dalvin Cook – Running Back, New York Jets (1,173 yds, 8 TD, selected to 4th Pro Bowl)
Cook will enter his first season with the Jets with four straight 1,000-yard seasons.
Divisional Matchups
1. Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets – Week 1 (Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN)
2. Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots – Week 2 (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. on NBC)
3. New England Patriots @ New York Jets – Week 3 (1 p.m. on CBS)
4. Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills – Week 4 (1 p.m. on CBS)
5. Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – Week 7 (1 p.m. on CBS)
6. New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins – Week 8 (1 p.m. on CBS)
7. New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills – Week 11 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
8. Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets – Week 12 (Black Friday, 3 p.m. on Amazon Prime Video)
9. New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins – Week 15 (1 p.m. on CBS)
10. New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills – Week 17 (1 p.m. on CBS)
11. Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins – Week 18 (TBD)
12. New York Jets @ New England Patriots – Week 18 (TBD)
Breakdown: 3 prime time games, 6 nationally televised games
Overall: 19 prime time appearances, 35 national television appearances
Bills: 6 prime time, (11 national television); Dolphins: 3 (5); Patriots: 4 (8); Jets: 6 (11)
Marquee Non-divisional Games
Bills: Week 9 @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. on NBC)
The Bills took a pummeling against the Bengals in the Playoffs last year, so before we can talk about them running down the Chiefs they need to prove they can beat the Bengals. This game being in the middle of the season will be the measuring stick for the Bills if they want to be the number two seed or have home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Dolphins: Week 16 vs. Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m. on FOX)
This game intrigues me just because of the history, for these two teams met in Super Bowl VI. But this season, this game could have massive playoff and division title implications for both teams. Cowboys fans should definitely show up to Miami, but can the Dolphins win one of their biggest home games in a long time?
Patriots: Week 14 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime Video
The Patriots have made a habit of going into Pittsburgh and winning for two decades. These two teams could be fighting for the number seven seed in the AFC, making this week 14 matchup a crucial one.
Jets: Week 9 vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Monday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN)
Like the Patriots and Steelers, this is a crucial mid-season matchup that could set the tone for the playoff race. A tiebreaker could be crucial for the winner of this game.
Head Coaches
Bills: Sean McDermott (7th season, 62-35; prev. Def. Coord. for Carolina Panthers from 2011-2016)
After having nine head coaches from 2000-2016, Sean McDermott has come in and not only steadied the ship in Buffalo but has become the best Bills head coach since Marv Levy in the 90s. With 47 wins over the last four seasons and five playoff appearances in his first six seasons as head coach, he has established himself as one of the NFL’s best head coaches. The question remains, though: Can he get the Bills over the hump?
Dolphins: Mike McDaniel (2nd season, 9-8; prev. Off. Coord. for San Francisco 49ers in 2021)
Mike McDaniel should not work out as a head coach. But despite his quirkiness, I think he’s going to. The players on the Dolphins roster fits his system. Miami has a really good, sleeper team in the AFC.
Patriots: Bill Belichick (24th season, 262-108 (298-152 overall); prev. Asst. HC and Def. Coord. for New York Jets from 1997-1999)
No secrets here. He is still a really good head coach for keeping the Patriots competitive post-Tom Brady. But can he get this team back to deep in the postseason? This season may be his last chance to do that.
New York Jets: Robert Saleh (3rd season, 11-23; prev. Def. Coord. for San Francisco 49ers from 2017-2020)
This is no doubt Saleh’s best team in three seasons on the job as Jets head coach and an opportunity to prove himself.
Quarterbacks
Bills: Josh Allen (6th season, Wyoming)
He’s no doubt a top five quarterback in the NFL. But last year he proved he’s just as capable of losing the Bills games as he is winning them games. He has proven himself to be elite, but if he can take the next step is the question.
Dolphins: Tua Tagavailoa (4th season, Alabama)
For Tua, it’s all about staying healthy. But if his biggest issue is concussions, which he suffered three of them last year, what he did this offseason by taking jiujitsu should help. And if he stays concussion-free, look out for Miami.
Patriots: Mac Jones (3rd season, Alabama)
Mac Jones is in that large middle of the NFL quarterback hierarchy. Yeah he’s good, he can take a team to the playoffs, he’s accurate. But this season will tell us if he can elevate the Patriots offense.
Jets: Aaron Rodgers (19th season, California)
No secrets here. He’s a four-time MVP ad future Hall of Famer for a reason. He is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history and has been a thrill for me, personally, to watch play the position.
Final Analysis
Ever since Tom Brady left, the Bills have ruled this division. But there’s strong competition. Unlike New England, the Bills are not an annual lock to win the division. Miami and New York have their shot to win this division and don’t ever count out the Patriots so long as Bill Belichick is there. Needless to say, this will be a fun division to watch this year.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 