COLUMBUS, Ohio — I love the AFC West. There is great quarterback play, great receivers, great head coaches, great stadiums, great everything. And this year, hopefully the play on the field lives up to the hype.
The Chiefs are far and away the best team in the division, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be great competition behind them. The Chargers always carry a lot of hype into the season. Denver seems poised for a bounce-back season with Sean Payton now roaming the sidelines. And the Raiders… there’s no denying their talent.
Four Burning Questions
1. What’s stopping the Chiefs from repeating? Does Patrick Mahomes need to do anything to keep proving himself? So long as Mahomes is there, Kansas City is a perennial Super Bowl contender. The Chiefs will have a thinner receiving corps this year after JuJu Smith-Schuster left in free agency. But with Travis Kelce, Marques Valdez-Scantling, Skyy Moore and now rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice to throw to, Mahomes should have another huge year. There are those who might say he needs to win a road playoff game to further prove himself. The problem is he’s so good that the Chiefs end up with a high enough seed they don’t have to go on the road. That’s just being great in the regular-season, giving your team every advantage possible on the road to the Super Bowl. So does he really have to do anything more to prove himself?
2. What constitutes success for the Chargers? Winning a playoff game, at the very least. There’s too much talent on this Chargers team for them to underachieve this season. I know they play in the same division as the Chiefs, but they’re good enough to win a lot of other games in the regular-season and then go on the road and win a playoff game. They have the superstar quarterback, they have the playmakers, they have the defense. It’s time for them to take the next step.
3. Is Sean Payton the answer Russell Wilson and Denver needs? I think he is. When Payton arrived in New Orleans in 2006, the Saints were coming off a 3-13 season. They went 10-6 and clinched a first-round bye in the Playoffs in ’06. I think something similar can happen in Payton’s first season in Denver. Wilson is not the quarterback he was last year, not historically at least. From what we’ve heard this offseason, it sounds like Payton is really changing the culture and promoting accountability. That could be exactly what this team needs.
4. The Raiders…? Yeah, about them. I’ll say this: I like the players they have on offense. The problem? Can they outscore the Chiefs and Chargers and some of the other teams on their schedule? Because their defense is going to be a struggle. But Jimmy Garoppolo and Josh McDaniels have been together before. Plus, Josh Jacobs will be returning. Make whatever jokes you want about the Silver and Black, but they will always be relevant. That will be perhaps more so this year than expected.
Top 10… or Top 14! Players
Just like on the Price is Right’s Hole in One… or Two!, we could just do the Top 10 players in the AFC West. But considering 14 were voted to the Top 100 Players of 2023, we might as well highlight all 14 of those players. The number that proceeds each player is their ranking in the Top 100 Players of 2023.
1. Patrick Mahomes – Quarterback, Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP, NFL MVP, 5,250 yds, 41 TD, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 5th Pro Bowl)
No secrets here. Mahomes is the best quarterback and best player in the league unless proven otherwise. And for the record, he doesn’t need to anything more to prove himself. Not after leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl championship the season after losing Tyreek Hill in free agency. Anything he does from here on out is icing on the cake.
5. Travis Kelce – Tight End, Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl champion, 110 rec., 1,338 yds, 12 TD, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 8th Pro Bowl)
Kelce is in the prime of his career, and he’s seemingly getting better. That’s a scary premise for opposing defenses.
10. Chris Jones – Defensive Tackle, Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl champion, 30 solo TKL, 15.5 sacks, 4 PD, 2 FF, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 4th Pro Bowl)
Jones is currently in a holdout, so it’s uncertain when he’s going to return. But when he does, he brings a game-changing element to the Chiefs defense.
12. Josh Jacobs – Running Back, Las Vegas Raiders (1,653 yds (NFL co-leader), 12 TD, 1st Team All-Pro, selected to 2nd Pro Bowl)
Unlike Jones, Jacobs is returning in time for the start of the regular season. That’s a huge addition to a Raiders offense that could perform better than some might think.
13. Davante Adams – Wide Receiver, Las Vegas Raiders (100 rec., 1,516 yds, 14 TD, 1st Team All-Pro, selected to 6th Pro Bowl)
Lost in all of the misery that was the Raiders season last year was Adams having a great first season in the silver and black. He still has status as a top five wide receiver in this league.
17. Maxx Crosby – Defensive End, Las Vegas Raiders (58 solo TKL, 12.5 sacks, 4 PD, 3 FF, FR, selected to 2d Pro Bowl)
On a Raiders defense that struggled last year, Crosby was a bright spot. And he’s such an easy guy to root for too.
21. Austin Ekeler – Running Back, Los Angeles Chargers (915 yds, 13 TD)
Ekeler is one of the most, if not the most versatile, players in the league. He gives the Chargers talented offense a lot of dimensions.
30. Derwin James – Strong Safety, Los Angeles Chargers (64 solo TKL, 4 sacks, 2 INT, 6 PD, 2 FF, 2nd Team All Pro, selected to 3rdr Pro Bowl)
For some reason, I feel like James has gotten lost in the shuffle of great safeties in the NFL. But he’s still extremely valuable to a talented Chargers defense.
32. Justin Herbert – Quarterback, Los Angeles Chargers (4,739 yds, 25 TD)
Here’s my thing about Herbert: he plays in a division with Patrick Mahomes and a city where his team is the second most popular NFL team and in the bottom half of the 10 teams when it comes to popularity. Nonetheless, he was wroth every penny of that contract extension he got.
38. Khalil Mack – Outside Linebacker, Los Angeles Chargers (33 solo TKL, 8 sacks, 2 PD, 2 FF, 2 FR, selected to 7th Pro Bowl)
Don’t let the down numbers fool you. He’s playing on a very talented Chargers defensive line. He’s still someone every team must account for in their gameplans.
49. Patrick Surtain II – Cornerback, Denver Broncos (46 solo TKL, 10 PD, 2 INT, FF, 1st Team All Pro, selected to 1st Pro Bowl)
Surtain is one of two cornerbacks that make up a strong Denver secondary.
59. Justin Simmons – Free Safety, Denver Broncos (42 solo TKL, 3 FF, FR, 6 INT (NFL co-leader), 2nd Team All-Pro)
Simmons, from his 2022 stats, is emerging as a versatile, play-making cornerback.
70. Joey Bosa – Outside Linebacker, Los Angeles Chargers (8 solo TKL, 2.5 sacks, FR)
Despite missing most of 2022, what Bosa has done in the past can’t be ignored. He has double digit sacks in four of his first seven seasons in the NFL.
93. Eric Kendricks – Middle Linebacker, Los Angeles Chargers (87 solo TKL, sack, 6 PD, FR)
Getting a veteran like Kendricks is huge for the Chargers defense. The ninth-year linebacker out of UCLA has seven straight seasons with 100 or more combined tackles.
Divisional Matchups
1. Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos – Week 1 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
2. Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers – Week 4 (4:05 p.m. on CBS)
3. Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs – Week 6 (Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime Video)
4. Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs – Week 7 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
5. Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos – Week 8 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
6. Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders – Week 12 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
7. Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers – Week 14 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
8. Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders – Week 15 (Thursday Night Football, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime Video)
9. Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs – Week 16 (Christmas, 1 p.m. on CBS)
10. Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos – Week 17 (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
11. Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers – Week 18 (TBD)
12. Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders – Week 18 (TBD)
Breakdown: 3 prime time games, 4 nationally televised games
Overall: 22 prime time appearances, 29 nationally televised games
Chiefs: 6 prime time games (11 nationally televised games); Chargers: 6 (8); Broncos: 4 (4); Raiders: 6 (6)
Marquee Non-Divisional Games
Chiefs: Week 17 vs. Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 p.m. on CBS)
No secrets here. A rematch of the last two AFC Championships and this one will no doubt be another classic.
Chargers: Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills (Saturday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. on Peacock)
The Chargers are either surging or collapsing late in the season. This game could tell us which direction they had towards the end of the 2023 season.
Broncos: Week 16 vs. New England Patriots (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. on NFL Network)
This used to be a perennially nationally televised game. This year, there could be massive Playoff implications on Christmas Eve.
Raiders: Week 10 vs. New York Jets (Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. on NBC)
If the Raiders want to be relevant for most of, if not all of, 2023, this is a game they need to prove themselves in.
Head Coaches
Chiefs: Andy Reid (11th season, 117-42 (247-138-1); prev. Head Coach for Philadelphia Eagles from 1999-2012)
No secrets here. Andy Reid has overtaken Bill Belichick as the best head coach in the NFL and has proven he can win the big game… consistently.
Chargers: Brandon Staley (3rd season, 19-15; prev. Def. Coord. for Los Angeles Rams in 2020)
Staley has two winning seasons, but only one payoff game that the Chargers absolutely should have won. Even with all the talent on the Chargers roster, he’s on the hot set heading into 2022.
Broncos: Sean Payton (1st season, 152-89 overall; prev. Head Coach for New Orleans Saints from 2006-2021)
I’ve always been a Sean Payton fan, and he’s the perfect head coach to turn this franchise around. Six straight losing seasons will be a thing of the past after this 2023 season. Payton is a home run hire for the Broncos to help be the tam everybody expected when Russell Wilson arrived in the Spring of 2022.
Raiders: Josh McDaniels (2nd season, 6-11; prev. Off. Coord. for New England Patriots from 2012-2021)
McDaniels’s second tenure as head coach is off to about as bad of a start as his first tenure went with Denver. Can his old student, Jimmy Garoppolo, help turn the fortunes of a once proud franchise around? McDaniels has the talent on offense, but can that talent help improve a team that lost 10 of 11 games by one score in 2022?
Quarterbacks
Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes (7th season, Texas Tech)
Mahomes is great because he does run around a lot, but look what comes from all that running around. Incredible throws from otherworldly arm angles. That’s what makes him so hard to play against, and don’t ever underestimate his toughness.
Chargers: Justin Herbert (4th season, Oregon)
Herbert has done better than I thought he would honestly. I didn’t think he was ready coming out of the Pac12. But playing in an offense that maximizes his skill set has allowed him to excel and flourish in his first three seasons.
Broncos: Russell Wilson (12th season, Wisconsin)
I really hope, for the sake of NFL fans, that Wilson revitalizes himself this season. Football is better when players like him perform well.
Raiders: Jimmy Garoppolo (10th season, Eastern Illinois)
Reunited with McDaniels could be exactly what Garoppolo needs in a fresh start. It also doesn’t hurt that he has the likes of great weapons on offense to throw to.
Final Analysis
The Chiefs should no doubt win their eighth consecutive division title. They are the new New England Patriots when it comes to consistency. There is some talent behind them, but the winning pedigree resides in Kansas City.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 