5. Cleveland Browns (11-6, 2nd in AFC North) @ 4. Houston Texans (10-7, AFC South Champions) – 4:30 p.m. on NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen)
Westwood One: Ian Eagle, Jason McCourty, A.J. Ross
My cousin texted me on Sunday night saying the Texans are once again in the Saturday 4:30 slot. To explain, this is the Texans seventh ever trip to the Playoffs since returning to Houston in 2002. This is the seventh time the Texans will play their first playoff game on Saturday at 4:30.
This is also the seventh time the Texans are in the Playoffs as AFC South Champions. It’s the Texans seventh AFC South championship in the last 13 seasons, and only the Patriots (9) and Packers (8) have more division titles in that span. The Texans have their quarterback in C.J. Stroud and head coach in DeMeco Ryans, and it’s not like they’re here by a fluke. Houston ranks in the top half of the NFL in both total and scoring offense and defense, and they posted wins over Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Cincinnati and Indianapolis in the regular season. All five of those teams finished with winning records.
ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky constantly called C.J. Stroud “Young Joe Burrow” during the regular season. I concur, and I made that comparison leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft. From the first month of his rookie season, it was evident that Stroud is a confident, accurate, prolific passer who isn’t fazed by anything. Stroud led the NFL in touchdown-to-interception ratio at 23:5 while also topping 4,000 yards and completing 64 percent of his passes. Just like Joe Burrow did in his first season as a full-time starter, Stroud led the Texans to a division title. And a quarterback with his confidence can lead his team on a deep playoff run.
But what really put the NFL on notice was what the Texans did with the very next draft pick after drafting C.J. Stroud. The Texas traded up to select the best defensive player in the draft, Alabama defensive end Will Anderson Jr. Anderson finished with seven sacks in his rookie season, leading a Texans defense that was also great against the run.
I will give a lot of credit to the Cleveland Browns for making it to the Playoffs this season amid all the adversity they faced. Head Coach Kevin Stefanski is my pick to win Coach of the Year for how he not only kept the team afloat amid so many injuries sustained throughout the season but also for making them an actually really good team that won 11 games. For perspective on how good the Browns were this season, this is the first time since the Browns returned to Cleveland in 1999 that they finished above Pittsburgh in the division standings.
Most teams would have crumbled if they were in a situation where they had to start four quarterbacks in a season, not to mention running back Nick Chubb was also lost for the season in Week 2. But the Browns were able to win 11 games in spite of the situation because of how good their roster is. Ever since 2017, the first time they had the first overall pick in the Draft, they have nailed countless draft picks. From Myles Garrett to David Njoku to Denzel Ward to Nick Chubb to Sione Takitaki to Jedrick Willis Jr. to Grant Delpit to Harrison Bryant to Greg Newsome II to Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah to Martin Emerson, the Browns have built a really good roster over the last seven seasons. They’ve also signed quality free agents in Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore on offense and Juan Thornhill and Dalvin Tomlinson on defense.
The matchup between Myles Garrett and Texans left tackle Laremy Tunsil is going to be fun to watch this afternoon. However, I’m more focused on the Browns offensive line against the Texans defensive line. The Browns offensive line has been really good this season, but they’re playing without their starting left tackle, left guard and right tackle. And while they have won 11 games and quarterback Joe Flacco is playing really well, the Playoffs are a whole different animal than the regular season. Flacco hasn’t played a playoff game in nine seasons, and for as good as he’s been that can be a factor in this game.
Also of note, Stroud did not play in the Texans 36-22 Week 16 loss to the Browns. Just like Burrow’s ability to carve up good defenses, I think Stroud will do that on this afternoon. He’s not fazed by anything, and that’s key here. I think this is a really close game but Stroud, as he has done several times this season, will lead a game-winning drive to advance Houston into the Divisional round.
Game pick: Texans 27 Browns 24 (Ka’imi Fairbairn hits from 42 yards as time expires)
6. Miami Dolphins (11-6, 2nd in AFC East) @ 3. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6, AFC West Champions) – 8 p.m. on Peacock (Mike Tirico, Jason Garrett, Kaylee Hartung)
Westwood One: Kevin Harlan, Ross Tucker, Olivia Dekker
The Dolphins have put themselves into an extremely adverse situation, and the Chiefs got an incredibly favorable draw as the begin their title defense.
Let me begin by saying the Dolphins have had an incredible season. I’m happy for them and their fans. The NFL is better when the Miami Dolphins are good. They’re an iconic franchise with so many iconic players.
For most of the season, the Dolphins have been a flashy and good football team. But the last two regular-season games were eye-opening. They simply can’t beat teams over .500 and teams that can play physical. With two chances to clinch the AFC East, the Dolphins got clobbered by the Ravens and lost a tough one to Buffalo. Now, they get to go play the Chiefs where the forecast calls for extreme cold.
Kansas City this season hasn’t looked anything like we have come to know them as over the last five seasons. But the Playoffs are a new season, and Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have won a lot of playoff games over the last five seasons. Now, they get to host the Dolphins in the extreme cold with a raucous Arrowhead crowd behind them. And one player to keep your eye on in this game: Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones. If he can get in the Miami backfield and disrupt what the Dolphins are trying to do, it could be a long night for Miami. And if the Chiefs receivers just catch the ball, the Chiefs should win this game comfortably.
Game pick: Chiefs 20 Dolphins 7
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7, 3rd in AFC North) @ 2. Buffalo Bills (11-6, AFC East Champions) – 1 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Jay Feeley)
Westwood One: Tom McCarthy, Tony Boselli, Ryan Leaf
I would be shocked if this game was close. Buffalo is playing like the hottest team in the NFL, and this year they have the ability to run the ball. Oh by the way, Josh Allen was spectacular last week in Miami in leading the Bills to their fourth straight AFC East title.
Give Pittsburgh credit. With their backs against the wall, they once again responded and found their way into the Playoffs. Over the last three weeks of the regular-season, they found a way to run the ball. Third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph was also solid down the stretch, throwing for three touchdowns and no interceptions in three starts.
If T.J. Watt was playing for Pittsburgh, they would have a chance. And even though it’s hard to completely bury Pittsburgh, Buffalo just has too much momentum. Their defense has also been playing well in addition to their offense, in large part because they’re healthier. Even without their two best players, Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano, the Bills still ranked in the top 10 in scoring, total and pass defense.
Game pick: Bills 34 Steelers 20
7. Green Bay Packers (9-8, 2nd in NFC North) @ 2. Dallas Cowboys (12-5, NFC East Champions) – 4:30 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olson, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic, Laura Okmin
Even if you’re not a fan of either one of these teams, it’s always must-see TV when the Packers and the Cowboys meet in the Playoffs.
Dallas has been really good this season. Forget waiting for the other shoe to drop with them, as it has been the case for this franchise since 1995. The Cowboys looked like a team that can go to the Super Bowl for most of the regular season. Dak Prescott had the best season of his career, and what he’s accomplished in the last three seasons of his career needs to be noted. Playing one of the most scrutinized positions in all of sports, Prescott has stabilized a historically proud franchise and has brought it sustained success not seen since the mid-90s. This is Dallas’s fifth playoff appearance in eight seasons and third straight. That success in Dallas has not been seen since the Cowboys won three Super Bowls in four seasons from 1992-1995. And the questionable response to Prescott getting his huge contract extension in the Spring of 2021? Prescott has since led the Cowboys to three straight 12-win seasons with two of those resulting in NFC East titles.
I’m really happy for Packers quarterback Jordan Love. His play in the second half of the regular season was incredible, and the Packers went 6-2 over their last eight games of the season. And while they may be a year ahead of schedule and have a shaky defense, the future looks bright in the post-Aaron Rodgers era with Love, a blossoming young receiving corps and one of the best offensive-minded head coaches in the NFL in Matt LaFleur.
Dallas has won 16 straight home games, and most of them this season have not been close. If they get out to a big lead early, it’s game over. But if Green Bay keeps this game close in the first half, the pressure gets greater for Dallas. Green Bay has broken the Cowboys’ hearts twice in the Playoffs in the last 10 seasons, but they won’t a third time on Sunday.
Game pick: Cowboys 31 Packers 21
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7, 2nd in NFC West) @ 3. Detroit Lions (12-5, NFC North Champions) – 8:15 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark)
Westwood One: Spero Dedes, Mike Mayock, Ross Tucker
My favorite game of the weekend. What a highly-anticipated matchup this is.
The Lions are hosting their first playoff game since January of 1994. It’s really cool to see a team that has been a laughingstock for so long completely turn around how they are perceived, create some hype and then live up to it. When the Lions went into Arrowhead Stadium on Opening Kickoff Night and knocked off the Chiefs, they announced to the NFL that they were going to be for real this season. And they were. Twelve wins, an offense that saw four players score 10 or more touchdowns- only the second time in NFL history that feat has been accomplished- and a head coach that has established a winning culture while also growing the fanbase to levels I have never seen and didn’t know were possible.
The way the Lions are built is so strong and so balanced. They can run the ball, they can throw the ball down the field, they can rush the passer, they can be physical in the trenches. Head Coach Dan Campbell and the Lions front office have built a team that really reflects the identity of the city of Detroit. If you would have told me that when Matthew Stafford left the Lions in a trade that sent him to the Rams, a trade that sent Jared Goff to the Lions in return, that Goff would be more than a bridge quarterback and the Lions would win their first division title in 30 years three years after the trade, I would not have believed you. And yet, here is Goff playing like he played in 2017 and 2018 while with the Rams and here are the Lions as one of the three best teams in the NFC who all finished at 12-5 this season.
Speaking of Stafford and the Lions, it’s now Stafford and the L.A. Rams AGAINST THE LIONS Sunday night in the Playoffs in Detroit. Great, so the Lions finally win a division title and this is what they get for a playoff game? A matchup against their former longtime quarterback, playing his first game in Detroit against the Lions since the Rams traded for him three years ago?
Now you know why this is my favorite game of the week. Now I’m going to let you know why I think Rams head coach Sean McVay should be in consideration for Coach of the Year. The Rams have been in a terrible salary cap situation since making huge trades en route to winning Super Bowl LVI. They haven’t had a first round pick since 2021 and have lost so many pieces from their world championship team two seasons ago. And yet, after starting 3-6 this season, McVay guided the Rams to a 7-1 finish- their only loss was an overtime loss at Baltimore- and the franchise’s fifth 10-win season in the last seven seasons. To put that into perspective, the Rams hadn’t won 10 games in a season prior to 2017 since 2003. Give McVay credit for getting this new-look Rams team to the Playoffs, aided by mid-round draft steals in running back Kyren Williams and wide receiver Puka Nacua.
This is going to be a fantastic matchup. But my biggest concern is the Lions potentially not having rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who injured his knee in last week’s regular-season finale. The Lions use him in so many ways on offense, especially in the red zone. Plus, I think the Rams can match the Lions physicality. If Kyren Williams gets going on the ground, that’s going to open up Stafford and the Rams passing game. And don’t forget; Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Aaron Donald and Sean McVay have been here before.
Game pick: Rams 30 Lions 27 (Cooper Kupp scores the game-winning touchdown)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6, 2nd in NFC East) @ 4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8, NFC South Champions) – 8:15 p.m. on ESPN/ABC (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters); Manningcast on ESPN2
Westwood One: Kevin Kugler, Kurt Warner, Taylor Davis
I know Philadelphia is in a free fall, but I’m not ready to bury them yet. My reasoning is what does Tampa Bay do well enough to make me think they can upset the Eagles? Plus, they didn’t even score a touchdown last week at Carolina, and the Panthers finished 2-15 this season. I don’t know of anything that makes me think an upset will happen on Monday night.
Game pick: Eagles 24 Buccaneers 17
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 