4. Houston Texans (11-7, AFC South Champions) @ 1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4, AFC North Champions) – 4:30 p.m. on ESPN and ABC (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters, Laura Rutledge)
Westwood One: Tom McCarthy, Ross Tucker, Ryan Leaf
What C.J. Stroud did last week in his first career playoff start was extremely impressive. I go back to something he said after he threw three interceptions in a Week 11 win against Arizona. He said that like Steph Curry, he’s going to keep shooting. That’s amazing confidence. Last week, he missed a deep throw to a wide open receiver midway through the second quarter. But he kept dealing, eventually hitting Dalton Schultz on a deep ball for a touchdown in the same quarter.
But what most impressed me about the Texans last week was their defense. I underestimated them when they came to face the Bengals in Week 10. But they have improved dramatically since then. They’re solid up front, up and coming in the secondary and last week they were stout in tackling in space and limiting yards after the catch. And that can serve them well in Baltimore Saturday afternoon.
Speaking of Baltimore, I’m worried about them having rested their starters for three weeks. They had an incredible regular-season, but their offense having so many moving parts and so much attention to detail could make that rest have a negative impact. Will the Ravens be as sharp as they were in the regular-season Saturday afternoon?
Lamar Jackson is likely going to win his second MVP, and he deserves it. When he’s healthy, he’s the most electrifying player in the sport. But for some reason, that electricity shuts off in the Playoffs. He’s just 1-3 in his career in the Playoffs, but this may be the best Ravens team he has been a part of since entering the NFL in 2018.
It’s not just Lamar who struggles in the Playoffs. The Ravens have been in this spot three times before, and are just 1-2. Three times the Ravens have gotten a first round bye in the Playoffs and have come up short in the Divisional round. Their one win just so happens to be against the Texans back in 2011.
Houston is playing without any pressure. They’re not supposed to be this far along with a rookie quarterback and first-year head coach. The Ravens are supposed to be here. But with just two playoff wins since winning Super Bowl XLVII in 2012, there is pressure for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens to break through and get back to the AFC Championship.
But C.J. Stroud is playing with so much confidence right now, and that’s dangerous against any team regardless of how good their defense is. And for what it’s worth, Stroud won’t be intimidated by the environment. He’s played games in Ann Arbor and the Rose Bowl. He won’t be intimidated by the cold. He’s played games in Big Ten stadiums in November. And he won’t be intimidated by the Ravens defense. He carved up Georgia’s defense in the Peach Bowl Playoff Semifinal in his final college game. I’m picking the Texans in my upset pick of the week.
Game pick: Texans 26 Ravens 23 (Ka’imi Fairbairn hits from 43 yards as time expires)
7. Green Bay Packers (10-8, 2nd in NFC North) @ 1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5, NFC West Champions) – 8:15 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olson, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic, Laura Okmin
Over the last three years, we’ve been fortunate to have some playoff rivalries from the ’90s rekindled. And this week, we get the playoff rivalry between the Packers and 49ers renewed for the second time in three years.
Green Bay is not here by fluke, and they’re not going to be a pushover in this game. Yes the story is about first-year starter Jordan Love, especially after his impressive performance last week in Dallas. He didn’t look fazed or intimidated in his first playoff start. But the key to the Packers win last week was on the ground. Running back Aaron Jones, who missed six games in the regular season, rushed for 118 yards and three touchdowns in the Wild Card win over Dallas last week. He’s the reason why I think this will be a game Saturday night.
But unlike Dallas, Green Bay is not a matchup problem for San Francisco. Look at the numbers. The 49ers give up just 89.7 rushing yards per game, so it will likely be harder for the Packers to run the ball Saturday night. The 49ers are also stout on the ground themselves, rushing for 140.5 yards per game in the regular season. Christian McCaffrey is the best running back in the NFL, leading the NFL in rushing yards and with 21 scrimmage touchdowns. Green Bay’s run defense has not been good this season, so look for the 49ers to establish McCaffrey early and often Saturday night. At times this season, the 49ers have looked like the most dominant and complete team in the NFL.
Whereas the rest I think could impact Baltimore, I don’t think it will impact the 49ers. With how hard they play physically, I think rest will benefit them. Like Love, Brock Purdy has proven he’s not fazed or intimidated by the ramped-up intensity of the NFL Playoffs. Crazy things can happen when these two teams get together in the Playoffs, including the 49ers beating the top-seeded Packers two years ago. I think Green Bay keeps this game close, but the 49ers talent will prevail in this go-round between NFC playoff rivals.
Game pick: 49ers 31 Packers 24
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8, NFC South Champions) @ 3. Detroit Lions (13-5, NFC North Champions) – 3 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Kaylee Hartung, Melissa Stark)
Westwood One: Kevin Kugler, Tony Boselli, Olivia Dekker
The thing that comes to mind when I think of this matchup is that it’s a rare feel-good matchup with two teams that are both enjoying either surprise or dream seasons. And as a casual NFL fan, you’re happy with whichever team wins.
I couldn’t be more happy for Detroit and their fans. It’s amazing to see a long-suffering fanbase grow so close with their team and enjoy a playoff run. And this Lions team has more than lived up to the hype this season. Now, the path is there to get to the NFC Championship, or so it seems.
I would not overlook Tampa Bay. While the Philly team they beat last week in the Wild Card was reeling, they did show some things that will give them a chance on Sunday afternoon. Baker Mayfield is having the best season of his career with his first division title and second career playoff win. Mike Evans is still as good as any receiver in the NFL. And their defense, despite some turnover from their Super Bowl team, is still stout up front and strong in the secondary.
The Lions are more talented than Tampa Bay, a tier above. But if Tampa Bay’s receivers perform Sunday the way they did against Philly’s secondary Monday night, they will keep this game close. I do think Detroit’s secondary is vulnerable, especially after watching the Rams receivers have success on intermediate and deep passing plays last week. But I think the Lions pass rush will do enough to take the pressure off of that secondary. I think the Lions win a thriller, with Aidan Hutchinson sacking Baker Mayfield to seal the win.
Game pick: Lions 33 Buccaneers 30
3. Kansas City Chiefs (12-6, AFC East Champions) @ 2. Buffalo Bills (12-6, AFC East Champions) – 6:30 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Jay Feeley)
Westwood One: Kevin Harlan, Mike Mayock, Aditi, Kinkhabwala
This is going to be war. These are two heavyweights going at it in peak playoff weather.
There’s something about January that brings out the best in the Chiefs. For as much as they struggled this season, the Chiefs looked the part last week in the bitter cold against Miami. Don’t ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Patrick Mahomes is just that. Mahomes hasn’t been as prolific this season, yet he’s done enough to get the Chiefs to within three wins of their third Super Bowl title in five seasons. It’s been a work in progress with the young receivers Mahomes has worked with this season, but there are more parts to this Chiefs team that makes them dangerous. Their defense has been incredible this season with 57 sacks and allowing fewer than 20 points per game and 300 yards per game.
However, Mahomes has never played a playoff game on the road. That will change Sunday. And Buffalo is not an ideal place to go for your first playoff game. Throughout the Bills-Chiefs playoff rivalry, the constant has been the games have been played in Kansas City. In fact, the last time these two teams played in Buffalo, in 2020, the game didn’t even have fans. The last time the Chiefs played in Buffalo with fans was in 2014. A lifetime ago.
The pressure is on Buffalo, no doubt. But they are playing at an unbelievably high level. Since making a change at offensive coordinator to Joe Brady, they are 7-1 in their last eight games. Josh Allen is playing the best and most inspired football of his career. But what makes this Bills offense more dangerous than in recent years is the addition of their ground game. James Cook gives this offense a dimension it hasn’t had in recent playoff runs. I think the loss to the Bengals at home last year in the Playoffs humbled the Bills enough to find another gear in their offense. This is a resilient team. A team that has overcome losses on both sides of the ball. And that atmosphere is going to be wild in Buffalo come Sunday.
This is Buffalo’s best chance to beat the Chiefs. They’re playing at home. They have the better team. They’re playing with a ton of momentum. But you still can never count out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. We all remember that playoff game two years ago. Buffalo did not lose that game. Kansas City won that game. This game is going to have that kind of intensity. And I think overtime will be needed to decide this one.
Game pick: Bills 31 Chiefs 28 (Tyler Bass hits from 31 yards, Dane Jackson makes game-ending INT)
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 