AFC Championship: 3. Kansas City Chiefs (13-6, AFC West Champions) @ 1. Baltimore Ravens (14-4, AFC North Champions) – 3 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Evan Washburn?, Jay Feeley)
Westwood One: Ian Eagle, Devin McCourty, Jason McCourty, Ross Tucker
Of all the great quarterback rivalries in the AFC, we have yet to see Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson meet in the Playoffs. That all changes Sunday afternoon when the Chiefs and Ravens will meet in the AFC Championship.
Patrick Mahomes is the next Tom Brady. I’m dead serious. For me, he’s become a quarterback I will not bet against in the Playoffs until I see a team beat him and the Chiefs. It doesn’t matter, now, that he and the Chiefs haven’t been as prolific this season compared to the previous five seasons. Ever since the start of the Playoffs, Mahomes and the Chiefs haven’t been pretty or perfect, but they’ve been good enough to win. Mahomes has only thrown for three touchdowns and 477 combined yards in the Chiefs first two playoff wins. But he hasn’t thrown any interceptions.
It’s not throwing any interceptions this postseason, leading the weakest Chiefs team in six seasons since Mahomes became the full-time starting quarterback, that’s the latest chapter in Mahomes’s greatness. In six full seasons as the Chiefs quarterback, Mahomes has at least led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game. In the previous five AFC Championships, the Chiefs are 3-2 with both losses coming in overtime. The only two quarterbacks to beat Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC Championship? Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. And both needed overtime to win. Brady and the Patriots needed 37 points, 20 in the fourth quarter and overtime, to win at Kansas City in 2018. That’s how great Mahomes is. Teams still need to outscore him and the Chiefs to win. In five AFC Championship games, Mahomes has 1,515 passing yards, 14 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. And last year, he led the Chiefs to a nail-biting win the AFC Championship and a come-from-behind win in Super Bowl LVII despite playing with a high-ankle sprain. And now he’s proven he can win in the Playoffs away from home, conquering his greatest rivals away from home. His greatness is proven to be at its best when the stakes are highest.
Mahomes’s next great rival challenge? Lamar Jackson. Jackson quieted his critics with a scintillating dynamic performance last week against the Texans, helping the Ravens advance to their first AFC Championship since 2012. But like Josh Allen, who couldn’t capitalize on the opportunity last week, Jackson has everything set up for him and the Ravens to break through and dethrone Mahomes and the Chiefs. They’re at home. They have the better team. Their defense led the NFL in scoring, takeaways and sacks.
And yes, the Ravens the defense is very good. They are the best defense Mahomes and the Chiefs may face this season. That’s the big storyline going into this game. But one storyline that’s not getting talked about: the Chiefs secondary, which has had an unbelievable season, against the Ravens receivers. Advantage Chiefs. Just look at what they’ve been able to do against teams like Miami (twice), Cincinnati and Buffalo and their receiving corps this seasons. And for what it’s worth, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes. I learned my lesson last week. Don’t bet against him.
Top 12 Players in the AFC Championship Game
1. Patrick Mahomes – QB, Chiefs
2. Lamar Jackson – QB, Ravens
3. Travis Kelce – TE, Chiefs
4. Roquan Smith – LB, Ravens
5. Chris Jones – DT, Chiefs
6. Mark Andrews – TE, Ravens
7. Isaiah Pacheco – RB, Chiefs
8. Gus Edwards – RB, Ravens
9. Zay Flowers – WR, Ravens
10. Rashee Rice – WR, Chiefs
11. Patrick Queen – LB, Ravens
12. Isaiah Likely – WR, Ravens
This has the potential to be a great matchup. Mahomes and Lamar are two great quarterbacks, and it’s rare that you get a conference championship matchup featuring the last two MVP quarterbacks. Mahomes and Lamar have never met in the postseason. They’ve met four times in the regular season, with Mahomes winning three of those matchups. I know the Ravens have been the better team throughout the season, but the best player in this game is on the Chiefs. Mahomes and the Chiefs have been here before. They’ve won a lot of postseason games the last five-plus seasons. They will win another on Sunday.
Game pick: Chiefs 30 Ravens 27
NFC Championship: 3. Detroit Lions (14-5, NFC North Champions) @ 1. San Francisco 49ers (13-5, NFC West Champions) – 6:30 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Greg Olsen, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Westwood One: Kevin Harlan, Kurt Warner, Laura Okmin
This has the potential to be a heavyweight fight. There also is the potential for a lot of tension inside Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
For as much as this game is about the Lions and their incredible run to their first NFC Championship appearance since 1991, this, for me, is about the 49ers. I was thinking about this earlier this week: for as proud a franchise as the 49ers are, they haven’t won a Super Bowl in nearly three decades. Not only that, they lost two Super Bowls in an eight-year stretch from 2012-2019 and they’ve lost the previous two NFC Championship Games. Even though this is their seventh NFC Championship appearance in the last 13 seasons, there’s a real possibility they could lose a third straight time in this game. For a franchise that went a perfect five for five in Super Bowls in a 14-year stretch, they have had some agonizing losses in the NFC Championship and Super Bowl since winning their last Super Bowl in 1994.
Detroit should not fear the 49ers. Watch the way the Lions play. They’re so well-balanced on both sides of the ball. They’re well-coached. They do a lot of things well. And they play with an attitude not seen in Detroit since the 90s. We hear sometimes about teams adopting an identity that fits the mold of their city. Detroit has done just that this season. You see a culture on the field. Jared Goff has gone from being perceived as a bridge quarterback after being traded to Detroit to being one win away from taking this Lions franchise to a place it has never gone before. You see a team of nailed draft picks and developed players and quality free agent signings. You see a team of high-character players. You see a strong and physical offensive line. You see players on this team who have been here before.
Deebo Samuel playing for the 49ers is a massive relief for the 49ers. His presence and versatility will make this 49ers offense hard for the Lions defense to defend. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are MVP finalists, and they should be. But Deebo Samuel may be the most valuable piece to this 49ers team, and that was evident when the 49ers struggled offensively last week after he left the game with a shoulder injury.
Top 12 Players in the NFC Championship Game
1. Christian McCaffrey – RB, 49ers
2. Aidan Hutchinson – DE, Lions
3. Jared Goff – QB, Lions
4. Brock Purdy – QB, 49ers
5. Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR, Lions
6. Deebo Samuel – WR, 49ers
7. George Kittle – TE, 49ers
8. Sam LaPorta – TE, Lions
9. Nick Bosa – DE, 49ers
10. Fred Warner – LB, 49ers
11. Brandon Aiyuk – WR, 49ers
12. Penei Sewell – RT, Lions
I’m all in on the Lions. I really want to see a team and city celebrate like it never has before. But this 49ers team is tough to beat, and the Lions haven’t played a lot outdoors of late. In fact, this is only their second game outdoors since October 22nd. I think the Lions can go toe-to-toe with the 49ers, but my pick is for the team I have said most of this season is the best team in the NFL.
Game pick: 49ers 31 Lions 24
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 