CINCINNATI — For anyone who felt that the first two rounds of this year’s NCAA Tournament were boring, fear not. What makes the NCAA Tournament great is elite matchups in the second weekend and the potential for great matchups in the Final Four and National Championship.
Upsets are fun in the first round. But when they keep happening in the second round, they make for matchups that aren’t as appealing as the matchups we have in this year’s second weekend. Last year, all the number one seeds were gone by the Elite 8. The top three seeds in all four regions didn’t make the Final Four. Yeah it was fun to see the bracket just completely whackydoo- is that a word?- its way to the Final Four with three non-Power Five teams playing in Houston. And for as unique as the National Championship matchup was between San Diego State and UConn, what if I told you that the rematch in this year’s Sweet 16 is the seventh best matchup of the eight total across Thursday and Friday?
With all four number one and number two seeds in the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend for the first time since 2009, the matchups on Thursday and Friday are incredible. Storylines abound, high anticipation hangs in the air, dream seasons hang in the balance, legacies are at stake, contrasting styles are set to clash, my goodness this is going to be a fun two nights of basketball. And then the Elite Eight, which has produced some of the best NCAA Tournament games over the past 40 years, awaits on Saturday and Sunday. You thought there was madness in the first two rounds? You haven’t seen anything yet.
Ranking these Sweet 16 matchups wasn’t easy. Every one of these eight matchups is exciting in their own way(s). But I can’t remember going into a Sweet 16 where all eight matchups are so compelling. I can’t wait to watch every single game- shout out YouTube TV for their multi-view feature where you can watch up to four games at once. So here we go, and I’m open for debate if you disagree with my rankings. After all, disagreements make for the best sports conversations. Here are my rankings of this weekend’s Sweet 16 games based on intrigue and excitement.
8) 11. NC State vs. 2. Marquette – Friday, 7 p.m. on CBS (South Region)
Venue: American Airlines Center (Dallas)
CBS: Ian Eagle, Grant Hill, Bill Raftery, Tracy Wolfson
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, P.J. Carlesimo
Watch this game turn out to be one of the best games of the weekend just because I ranked it eighth out of eight. Anyway, NC State is on an incredible run winning seven in a row across five games in the ACC Tournament and two in the NCAA Tournament. Did they get lucky by not having to face Kentucky in the second round? Yes, but you still got to take advantage of situations like that, which NC State did.
But look at what NC State has done to get here and you’ll realize why they’re good. They controlled their first round game against Texas Tech, pulling away in the second half for an 80-67 win. Then against Oakland, the Wolf Pack displayed poise against a Cinderella but confident Oakland team, outlasting the Golden Grizzlies 79-76 in overtime. But even before that, NC State beat both Duke and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament. Historically, the Wolf Pack have been the third wheel when it comes to college basketball in the Research Triangle. So beating both Duke and North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, with their NCAA Tournament hopes hinging on them being able to win those games, was significant. This is a team playing well above their season averages right now- they only average 76.5 points per game and have eclipsed 80 points four times in the last seven games. It’s special when a team can do that. DJ Burns Jr. is not just fun to watch, he’s been really good with seven straight double-digit scoring performances and 21 assists over that seven-game stretch.
Marquette was a wild card for me going into the Big Dance. I knew they were electric offensively, but the question I had was could they get over the hump and through the first weekend. Remember last year they lost to Michigan State in the Second Round as a two seed. Here they were this year as a two-seed again, looking for their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2013.
Another reason I was skeptical about them was Tyler Kolek’s availability. He’s played in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament, and he’s been very good. Kolek has dished out 11 assists in each of Marquette’s first two games and has 39 points on 17 of 27 shooting from the floor over the first two games. On the season, Kolek has 236 assists and is shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and nearly 40 percent from three-point range. The scary part about Marquette? Kolek is only their second leading scorer.
I think Marquette getting tested in their first two games was good for them. They needed their championship mettle tested, and they proved resilient. They overcame an eight-point halftime deficit against Western Kentucky in the First Round and then held off a strong Colorado team in the Second Round. Marquette shot over 50 percent from the floor in both rounds, keeping the pressure on their opponents. That’s what I expect them to do against NC State.
It’s been a great ride for the Wolf Pack. Worth noting: the only other team to win five conference tournament games in five days was UConn in 2011. That UConn team went on to win the National Championship. Maybe history will repeat itself, but it will take quite an effort for NC State to beat Marquette Friday night.
7) 5. San Diego State vs. 1. UConn – Thursday, 7:30 p.m. on TBS (East Region)
Venue: TD Garden (Boston)
TBS: Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Andy Katz
Westwood One: Scott Graham, Jordan Cornette
Again, if this is my seventh-best game of the weekend, that shows how great this Sweet 16 is. This is a rematch of last year’s National Championship, and I think there are six games this weekend better than this one.
Brian Dutcher has built an unbelievable program at San Diego State. Everybody remembers the potential Dayton had to be a No. 1 seed in 2020 and to win it all. But San Diego State was 30-2 that season and also in line to be a number one seed. And since 2020, they have been to the NCAA Tournament each of the last four seasons, culminating in a National Championship appearance last season.
This year’s Aztecs team is led by Jaedon LeDee, who is averaging 21.5 points per game, good for 10th in the country, on 56.4 percent shooting including 45.2 percent from three-point range. But no other player besides LeDee averages double-digit points.
UConn is better than they were last season, and the Huskies won the National Championship this season. Dan Hurley is not a really good head coach. He’s a great head coach. He’s re-creating a culture of excellence at UConn, a storied college basketball program.
Last year, the Huskies beat every team they played in the NCAA Tournament by double digits. So far this Tournament, they have a 91-point outing against Stetson and a 16-point win over a good Northwestern team. Remember this UConn team entered this year’s NCAA Tournament as a number one seed for the first time since 2009. That means UConn has won three National Championships since then, all not as a number one seed. This year’s UConn team has five players averaging double figures, they are averaging over 80 points per game and shooting nearly 50 percent from the floor.
The one thing UConn also has: an essential home-court advantage Thursday night. Boston is just about a 90-minute drive from Storrs, Connecticut. That’s a huge advantage for UConn. They just have to get on a bus. San Diego State has to fly across the country right after playing Sunday night in Spokane, Washington. Upsets can happen when you least expect them, but I don’t expect one to happen here.
6) 6. Clemson vs. 2. Arizona – Thursday, 7 p.m. on CBS (West Region)
Venue: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
CBS: Brian Anderson, Jim Jackson, Allie LaForce
Westwood One: Spero Dedes, Austin Croshere
I was surprised, at first, that Clemson is here. But the more I think about it, I’m not. This is a really good team with experience.
Clemson was so strong in nonconference play, their only at Memphis by two points. And in ACC play, they still went 11-9. There they were, hiding in plain sight going into the first weekend in Memphis before breaking out in a big way by taking out Mountain West Tournament Champions New Mexico and frustrating a talented but young Baylor team.
PJ Hall is the star on the Clemson team, averaging 18.5 points and shooting 49 percent from the floor. He also averages a second-best 6.4 rebounds.
Arizona has a really good team, once again. Give Tommy Lloyd a lot of credit for what he’s done in his three seasons in Tucson. To be a top two seed in the NCAA Tournament in each of the previous three seasons is incredible. He has restored Arizona as an elite college basketball program, and the Wildcats now have the opportunity to exorcise some March demons this weekend.
The Wildcats have lost in the Sweet 16 several times since their last Final Four appearance since 2001. Five times to be exact, including in 2022 in Lloyd’s first season. This Arizona team is elite offensively, ranking third in the country averaging 87.6 points per game. Four players average double figures, led by Caleb Love’s 18.1 points per game. Oumar Ballo averages a double-double, and Arizona is second in the country with 42.5 rebounds per game.
I have this game at No. 6 because I think Clemson can compete with Arizona. But this may be Arizona’s best team since 2001, and they have had a lot of great teams that have gone to the Elite Eight five times since 2001. They will look to get to their first Elite Eight since 2015 on Thursday night.
5) 5. Gonzaga vs. 1. Purdue – Friday, 7:30 p.m. on TBS (Midwest Region)
Venue: Little Caesar’s Arena (Detroit)
TBS: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas, Evan Washburn
Westwood One: Kevin Kugler, Robbie Hummel
Purdue is exorcising demons. Not just from what happened last year in the First Round, but also for all their crushing defeats in previous NCAA Tournaments.
This is Matt Painter’s best team at Purdue, and it’s not even close. He’s had consistently good teams in his now 19 seasons at Purdue, but this is no doubt his best team. They’re battle-tested, they’re war-tested. This is a team averaging nearly 84 points per game, shooting 49 percent from the floor and over 40 percent from three. Zach Edey: all he’s done is become the first player since Lew Alcindor in 1968- a.k.a. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar- to score 50 or more points with 35 or more rebounds and a shooting percentage of .650 or better over the first two Tournament games.
Speaking of UCLA, their seven straight National Championships from 1967-1973 is a streak that will likely never be duplicated. It’s the greatest streak in the history of College Basketball. Second on that list, for me: Gonzaga going to nine straight Sweet 16s. Nine straight. Getting through the Madness of the first weekend, avoiding the chaos that Second Round games can bring, winning two NCAA Tournament games NINE seasons in a row. Remarkable consistency. Remember when Gonzaga was a bubble team this season? Remember when McNeese was a popular upset pick?
This Gonzaga team may not be like their two Final Four teams, but they are still a really good team. The Bulldogs average 85 points per game, shoot over 50 percent from the field and average over 39 rebounds per game. It’s a typical Gonzaga team: well-coached, efficient, six players averaging at least nine points per game and in the Sweet 16.
But this is always where things get hairy for Gonzaga. Am I questioning the caliber of their program? No. But this is where teams start to rattle them, except for 2021. Look at last season, where it took a game-winning three for Gonzaga to beat UCLA and then the Bulldogs got smacked by eventual national champion UConn in the Elite Eight. Whenever they run into a well-rounded, physical team in the second weekend that matches up well with them, that’s where their seasons have come to an end in seasons past. This Purdue team, I think, is going to overwhelm Gonzaga on Friday night.
4) 3. Creighton vs. 2. Tennessee – Friday, 10 p.m. on TBS (Midwest Region)
Venue: Little Caesar’s Arena (Detroit)
TBS: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas, Evan Washburn
Westwood One: Kevin Kugler, Robbie Hummel
If you like contrasting styles, this matchup is for you. Three-two matchups in the Sweet 16 always have the potential to be great, and this one is no different.
It’s always great when you get a matchup where both teams have never been to a Final Four. And these are two programs that have been really solid and consistent under their respective head coaches.
Let’s start with Creighton, in their 14th season under head coach Greg McDermott. This is the offensive style in this matchup. The Blue Jays average 80 points a game, shoot 48.5 percent from the floor and have three players with over 100 assists on the season. The Blue Jays have been knocking on the door for several seasons. They reached the Sweet 16 in two of the last three seasons and lost by just one point in the Elite Eight in 2023. This is another well-coached, well-rounded offensive team led by experienced Seniors Ryan Kalkbrenner and Baylor Scheierman.
On the other side, there’s Tennessee. A strong team in its ninth season under head coach Rick Barnes, this may be the Vols best chance at going to the program’s first ever Final Four. Dalton Knecht is an excellent player, but the Vols are in this spot because they are more than just the First-Team All-American. It’s Jonas Aidoo leading the team in blocks with 66. It’s Zakai Zeigler, who didn’t play in last year’s Tournament due to injury, leading the team with 204 assists. Tennessee has had some March heartbreak in the past, but there’s no discounting the job Rick Barnes has done in Knoxville. This is Tennessee’s third Sweet 16 appearance in the last five Tournaments.
Neither team deserves to lose this game. Both teams have had fantastic seasons. But Vols fans have been knocking on the door for a long time, ever since losing by just one point in the Elite Eight to Michigan State in 2010. Tennessee demolished former Tournament Cinderella Saint Peter’s in this year’s First Round and then held off a feisty Texas team in the Second Round. They can win in more ways than one, and that could be a problem for Creighton.
3) 3. Illinois vs. 2. Iowa State – Thursday, 10 p.m. on TBS (East Region)
Venue: TD Garden (Boston)
TBS: Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy, Andy Katz
Westwood One: Scott Graham, Jordan Cornette
Another contrast-of-style game, and this one is going to be really good.
I have seen Iowa State in person, and this is as well-balanced of a basketball team as I have ever seen. They get after it defensively, they are fundamentally sound on offense taking good shots, and there is a culture being built by third-year head coach TJ Otzelberger. Plus, their fans are incredible.
Iowa State is allowing just 61.3 points per game this season and allowing their opponents to shoot just 31.5 percent from the floor. They’re led by their dynamic guard duo of Keshon Gilbert and Tamin Lipsey, who each average over 12 points a game and have each dished out more than 150 assists on the season.
Illinois is a dynamic offense, led by one of the best players in the country in Terrence Shannon Jr.. Shannon is averaging over 23 points per game while shooting 48.1 percent from the floor. Behind him is Marcus Domask, who averages over 16 points per game and leads the Illini with 144 assists.
The concern I have for Illinois they are only shooting 35.3 percent from three-point range. Plus, are they going to be able to take care of the ball against Iowa State’s aggressive defense? The Cyclones average 17.3 takeaways per game. That’s a lot for an Illinois team that only averages 13.4 assists per game.
2) 4. Duke vs. 1. Houston – Friday, 9:30 p.m. on CBS (South Region)
Venue: American Airlines Center
CBS: Ian Eagle, Grant Hill, Bill Raftery, Tracy Wolfson
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, PJ Carlesimo
This is going to be a war.
Houston was taken to the absolute brink in the Second Round Sunday by Texas A&M. Four players fouled out, forcing a walk-on to enter the game and hit a crucial free throw to seal the game late in overtime. The Cougars were up by 13 in regulation, before Texas A&M roared back to tie the game. That’s why I think the Cougars are vulnerable.
But a friend of mine texted me after the game Sunday night saying he had more respect for Houston than he did before this game. And the more I thought about it, he has a very valid point. After a regular-season where Houston decimated opponents, they survived being taken to the brink in a win-or-go-home situation. The Cougars found a way to win, a testament to their culture built on toughness and resiliency. That is a program of young men Kelvin Sampson has built. Perhaps getting tested against Texas A&M, the leading rebounding team in the country, was what the Cougars needed to be prepared for tougher tests in the later rounds.
Houston’s win Sunday night against Texas A&M reminds me of Duke’s survival against Central Florida in 2019, a one-point win for the Zion Williamson-led Blue Devils. Duke was taken to the Gates of Hell, but like Tom Petty they didn’t back down. They found a way to eke out that win, preparing themselves for closer games in the NCAA Tournament. Duke was the best team in the country in 2019, but they were still tested mightily in the NCAA Tournament. That’s the great thing about the Tournament. No team is safe. It truly is survive and advance.
Speaking of Duke, I give head coach Jon Scheyer a lot of credit. In two seasons since succeeding Mike Krzyzewski, the Blue Devils have been a top five seed in the NCAA Tournament and top five team in the ACC standings in both seasons. The Blue Devils made it to the Second Round last season and are back in the Sweet 16 this season.
This is a solid Duke team. Five players in double figures. Three players are shooting 40 percent or better from three. The Blue Devils defense is also really solid, allowing just 66.5 points per game and opponents to shoot just 32.1 percent from three-point range. They also allow just 31.4 rebounds per game.
It feels like Duke is being overlooked in this game. That’s what makes this game great. Duke being overlooked. In years past, they would have been the featured team in this matchup. But Houston is that team in this matchup Friday night. But be warned: Duke is coming. They took a hot James Madison team behind the woodshed Sunday night. Kyle Fillipowski has a year’s worth of experience. Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor are veterans. Duke is a sleeping giant. That’s scary for a vulnerable Houston team, not used to being an alpha team since the mid-80s. But Houston attacks every game like they are the better team. They intimidate teams. But you can’t intimidate Duke. One team is going to survive this game. Whoever does will have won a heavyweight fight.
1) 4. Alabama vs. 1. North Carolina – Thursday, 7 p.m. on CBS (West Region)
Venue: Crypto.com Arena (Los Angeles)
CBS: Brian Anderson, Jim Jackson, Allie LaForce
Westwood One: Spero Dedes, Austin Croshere
If you like back-and-forth, high-scoring, physical, up-tempo, 40 minutes of exhilaration, then this game is for you. It’s also why this game is number one for me in this year’s Sweet 16.
North Carolina is back after last year’s disappointment. This is a really good team, one that is relentless. The Tar Heels average over 80 points a game and 40 rebounds a game and have four players averaging double figures. RJ Davis is a force, Armando Bacot is a grown man inside and Harrison Ingram, Cormac Ryan and Elliot Cadeau are three great players behind the Tar Heels dynamic duo.
There was controversy over the Tar Heels getting the fourth No. 1 seed over Iowa State and there was the potential for the Tar Heels to be the first No. 1 seed to get knocked out. But after taking it to Michigan State in the Second Round, the Tar Heels have put the Tournament on notice: they’re here to win. They’re here to unleash a run at a seventh National Championship.
Could Alabama derail the Tar Heels? They certainly have the team to do it, leading the country with 90.7 points per game. Mark Sears averages 21.5 points per game, three other players average double figures. Alabama shoots 47.7 percent from the floor, and they’ve scored over 100 points 10 times. But here’s the catch: they’ve allowed 100 points three times in their last eight games. On the season, they’re allowing 80.9 points per game.
Both teams are going to play at a frenetic pace. Both teams are going to shoot, rebound and go at it for 40 minutes. This has the potential to be a Sweet 16 classic. Whichever team wins will have done it by outlasting the other.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 