CINCINNATI — These last few years I’ve come to really understand the significance of the relationship between Thanksgiving NFL Football and John Madden. I have always been a fan of both John Madden, as someone who grew up learning the game of football from the legendary broadcaster, and watching football on Thanksgiving.
But it wasn’t until the last few years I came to really understand the place John Madden and Thanksgiving NFL Football hold in American conscience. There’s nothing like waking up on the fourth Thursday of November, watching the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade and then settling in for a triple-header of NFL Football while eating a whole bunch of food. As John Madden said, all you need is “A turkey to eat and a football to throw.”
When the NFL schedule comes out every May, the Thanksgiving matchups are one of the first things I look for. Even though, as a Bengals fan, they haven’t played on Thanksgiving in 14 years now, I still like to see who’s playing on one of the best holidays of the year. These are there standalone games on a day when families come together and food is consumed at a bountiful level.
Add in a game on Black Friday, a tradition started last year, and we have four standalone games to start the NFL weekend that overlaps Thanksgiving. It’s a football feast. And if you’re a fan of NFC North football, this Thanksgiving is for you.
With that, let’s look at this year’s Thanksgiving and Black Friday matchups.
Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1) – 12:30 p.m. on CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo Tracy Wolfson)
Westwood One: Jason Benetti, Ryan Leaf
While the Lions turnaround is the most impressive in recent NFL history, there is still one hurdle they need to clear. The Lions have not won on Thanksgiving since 2016. They’ve played some close games in the last seven years on Thanksgiving, but they haven’t won any of their last seven games on Turkey Day.
I think the most impressive thing about the Lions this season has been the way they have handled the high expectations they faced coming into this season. After a shaky start, the Lions have been dominant through their first 11 games. It’s not like they have faced bottom-feeder teams, either. They’ve dominated division winners and playoff teams from a year ago, and they’re doing it all three phases of the game.
On the other side, the Bears have lost five straight games. However, quarterback Caleb Williams has shown growth in the Bears last two games. Williams is completing 70.5 percent of his passes with 571 passing yards in the Bears last two games. Even more impressive, Williams hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 6, and that interception was the only one he’s thrown since Week 3.
His performances haven’t led to a win since Week 6 when the Bears beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in London. But the growth is evident.
Unfortunately, Williams is going to have a tall order playing at the Lions on Thanksgiving Thursday afternoon. Jared Goff is playing incredible football this season, and the Lions offense is as dynamic as any in the NFL. Add in a Lions defense that’s gotten better from last year, and that’s without star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, and the Lions have the team that can bear down on Chicago Thursday afternoon.
Game Pick: Lions 38 – Bears 24
New York Giants (2-9) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7) – 4:30 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Westwood One: John Sadak, Phil Simms
I know what you’re thinking: this is a terrible matchup for Thanksgiving. The Giants are horrible, and the Cowboys don’t have Dan Prescott as he is missing the rest of the season with a torn hamstring.
However, there is something intriguing going into this game. The Cowboys showed a lot of fight last week in their win at Washington. It would have been easy for them to start packing it in with how their season has unfolded, but they went out and showed a lot of resolve against a division rival Washington Commanders team enjoying a really strong bounce-back season.
Now you can start to look at the Cowboys and the fact that they play the Giants Thursday afternoon and think that they could maybe play themselves back into the NFC Wild Card race. It’s a long shot, especially with a backup quarterback. But Cooper Rush is solid, having led the Cowboys to wins in prime time and marquee games over the past three seasons and in the current 2024 season.
On the other side, the Giants are a mess. There’s no other way around it. They’re, potentially, a loss away from their locker room completely unraveling. The only thing that may keep that from happening is the fact that it’s Thanksgiving and they’ll have off until Monday after the game. Still, though, there’s nothing positive about the Giants right now with six straight losses and a locker room that is completely fading.
Game Pick: Cowboys 31 – Giants 13
Miami Dolphins (5-6) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3) – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Jason Garrett, Melissa Stark)
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Derek Rackley
This is your classic warm weather team going to play a marquee game, in this case a prime time game, in a cold-weather city. The Dolphins are going to be up against serious odds Thursday night playing at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night.
The Packers have been able to overcome a few slip-ups this season to, once again, be firmly in the playoff picture at Thanksgiving. With a strong running game led by running back Josh Jacobs and a passing game led by quarterback Jordan Love and a plethora of receivers, the Packers are primed to make the Playoffs for a second straight season to begin the Love era.
The key for a deep playoff run for the Packers, though, is in their defense. Green Bay is allowing just 20.3 points per game, and they’ve looked much better the last two weeks.
Miami, though, is starting to click again on offense. With Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback, the Dolphins have won three straight games to get back to 5-6 and in the thick of the AFC Wild Card race. Tua has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to throw to, the former first-round pick threw for four touchdowns on Sunday in a win over New England. He leads the NFL in completion percentage at 76.5 since Week 8 when he returned from a concussion. Waddle had eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, while Hill has a touchdown in two of the Dolphins last three games.
This game could be really good, but Tua and the Dolphins must be able to conquer playing in the cold. They didn’t last year at Kansas City in the Playoffs. This isn’t the Playoffs, but it’s Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving night. If the Dolphins want another shot at the Playoffs, they need to win this game to get back to .500 and position themselves for a December run.
Game Pick: Packers 31 – Dolphins 17
Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) – 3 p.m. on Prime Video (Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung)
Westwood One: Kevin Kugler, James Lofton
For the second straight season, the Black Friday game features an AFC divisional matchup. Unfortunately, the game doesn’t project to be a great game for the second straight season.
Let’s start with the positive and the Chiefs. I actually thought last week was the first time this season Patrick Mahomes truly looked like his former self. Mahomes threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns while also adding 60 rushing yards in a win at Carolina. He knows what happened to the Raiders on Christmas last year at Arrowhead Stadium, and Mahomes will make sure the Chiefs don’t sustain that kind of home holiday loss again this season.
The Raiders, on the other hand, are a mess. I think the worst thing for them, to me, is that they don’t have a clear sense of direction. Their identity that made them so good in the 70s with John Madden is nowhere near the zip code of the Raiders organization now. How do they fix the mess they’re in? I can say draft a quarterback next Spring, but there are still many other problems the Raiders will have to solve after that.
A lot games between the Chiefs and Raiders are close, but I don’t think this one will be. There’s such a contrast between where the two teams are at organizationally, that I think this will be a throuough exposing job by the Chiefs.
Game Pick: Chiefs 41 – Raiders 17
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 