CINCINNATI — Starting Thursday night, there’s at least one NFL game in nine of the next 12 days. When was the last time that happened?! That’s the wild and wackiness of the 2024 NFL Season, culminating these next two weeks.
I have found myself wondering what week it will be when certain games will be played over the next 12 days. That’s how many games there are, and all of them have high significance.
In Week 16, we have two divisional matchups and three marquee/prime time intra-conference matchups that will heavily impact the playoff race. The Saturday doubleheader features all four teams that will be playing on Christmas just four days later! And all four teams are already on short weeks!
This is going to be fun! Here’s a look at the Week 16 prime time games and Saturday doubleheader.
Thursday Night Football: Denver Broncos (9-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) – 8:15 p.m. on Prime Video (Al Michaels, Kirk Herbstreit, Kaylee Hartung)
Westwood One: John Sadak, Ross Tucker
This is a very crucial game for both teams. Both teams also enter this game with contrasting recent trends. Denver has won four straight games, and they have scored 30+ points in three of those wins. The Chargers, on the other hand, have lost three of their last four games, and they have scored fewer than 20 points in three straight games.
If you haven’t watched the Broncos much this season, get used to seeing them. They’re not 9-5 because they have benefitted from a third-place schedule. Rather, this is a well-constructed roster that is led by a future Hall of Fame head coach in Sean Payton. What stands out to me about the Broncos is that they are really good in the trenches. After struggling for the last eight years along the offensive line, the Broncos are finally strong up front this season. Bo Nix is being protected, having only been sacked 20 times this season. In addition, their defense is getting after opposing quarterbacks- they lead the NFL with 49 sacks through 14 games- and their defense is shutting down opposing receiving corps. Being strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball is a strong recipe to have going into the Playoffs. And Bo Nix is playing extremely well in his rookie season, leading all NFL rookie quarterbacks with 20 touchdown passes. Having 61 starts in college really helped Nix coming into the NFL.
On the other side, the Chargers have lost three of their last four games. Their defense, which is still tied for the NFL in scoring, has allowed 27 or more points three of their last five games. In addition, quarterback Justin Herbert has thrown for less than 200 yards in two of his last three games and his completion percentage has been under 70 in four of his last five games. Jim Harbaugh has done a really good job in his first season as the Chargers head coach. You can see the identity he’s trying to create within the team. But with a 1-3 record in their last four games, the Chargers are reeling at the wrong time. That’s why this is a crucial game for them as they look to get closer to clinching a playoff berth and position themselves in the playoff seeding.
Top 12 Players in Broncos-Chargers
1. Khalil Mack
2. Patrick Surtain II
3. Justin Herbert
4. Derwin James
5. Bo Nix
6. Nik Bonitto
7. Ladd McConkey
8. Courtland Sutton
9. Quentin Johnston
10. Joey Bosa
11. Quinn Meinerz
12. Garrett Bolles
Week 6: Chargers 23 – Broncos 16
The Chargers looked like they were going to run away with this game, leading 23-0 after three quarters. But the Broncos rallied to cut the deficit to 23-16, and it was only after the Chargers recovered an onside kick that they sealed the victory.
This was one of Herbert’s more efficient games of the season, throwing for 237 yards and a touchdown on 21/34 passing. But Nix also had a solid outing, showing his ability to play from behind and showing his resiliency in the process of bringing the Broncos back in the fourth quarter. This was the game where Nix showed he has what it takes to be a good quarterback in the NFL. He’s been building on it ever since.
You may also remember this game for when Jim Harbaugh had to go to the locker room for an irregular heartbeat. He left the field prior to the Opening Kickoff to be treated, then returned during the first quarter.
What to Watch for Thursday night
The Chargers have to get a pass rush on Bo Nix if they’re going to win this game. Denver’s offensive line is great in pass protection. But because they can’t run the ball, it’s going to be an issue if Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack can get to Nix early and often.
Game Pick: Chargers 27 – Broncos 24
This game favors the Chargers, playing at home on a short week. Teams that get blown out at home the previous week always respond the next week. Playing at home on a short week gives the Chargers an immediate chance to bounce back and get their season back on track heading into the Playoffs.
Sunday Night Football Special: Houston Texans (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) – 1 p.m. on NBC (Noah Eagle, Todd Blackledge, Kathryn Tappen)
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Derek Rackley
This is a really interesting game. For starters, we don’t know if Patrick Mahomes will be playing after leaving last week’s Chiefs win over the Browns with a high-ankle sprain. The Chiefs can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win and a Buffalo Bills loss this week, but is clinching the No. 1 seed more important than insuring Patrick Mahomes is healthy going into the Playoffs?
On the other side, the Texans are entering a five-day stretch that will define their season. With games against the Chiefs and Ravens- both teams that played in the AFC Championship last year- this five-day stretch will show just how much of a contender the Texans are in the AFC once the Playoffs start. They’ve already clinched their second straight AFC South, which is a good start. But how much more will this Texans team accomplish this season?
Top 12 Players in Texans-Chiefs
1. Patrick Mahomes
2. Chris Jones
3. Travis Kelce
4. C.J. Stroud
5. Danielle Hunter
6. Laremy Tunsil
7. Joe Mixon
8. Will Anderson
9. George Karlaftis
10. Nico Collins
11. Drue Tranquill
12. Derek Stingley Jr.
What to Watch for Saturday afternoon
Can the Texans exploit the Chiefs maligned offensive line? That’s what I’m watching for. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson IV are the only pair of defensive linemen in the NFL to each have 10 sacks so far this season. The Chiefs have surrendered 35 sacks this season. This matchups may play right into the Texans favor.
Game Pick: Chiefs 26 – Texans 23
I’m thinking Mahomes is playing until we hear otherwise. If there’s anything besides his greatness Mahomes has proven throughout his career, it’s his toughness. Mahomes will play through any injury, and he’s done that multiple times throughout his career. If Mahomes is playing Saturday, the Chiefs will somehow escape with another win and get to 14-1… somehow.
America’s Game of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5) – 4:30 p.m. on FOX (Kevin Burkhardt, Tom Brady, Erin Andrews, Tom Rinaldi)
Westwood One: Scott Graham, Mike Mayock
This is how football should be. Late December, AFC North, where it’s cold and there are major implications in this game.
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North with a win on Saturday afternoon. That’s all they have to do. But with wide receiver George Pickens and linebacker T.J. Watt both banged up, how will that impact the Steelers going on the road on a short week? In addition, the Steelers did not play well as a whole last week in Philadelphia. Are they still a serious contender in the AFC? This game will tell us a lot about if they are or not.
Baltimore can also clinch something of significance with a win on Saturday. The Ravens will clinch a playoff berth with a win. However, the spotlight and pressure is on them in this game. Lamar Jackson is just 1-4 against the Steelers in his career, and that includes only one start against them at home. Overall against Pittsburgh, Jackson has five touchdowns to eight interceptions.
There have been times when the Ravens have played the Steelers at home with home field advantage already clinched in recent years, meaning Jackson didn’t play due to rest. That’s not the case this year, though, and this is a crucial game for Jackson and the Ravens. Forget Jackson still, maybe, being in the MVP conversation. This is about him overcoming an obstacle, and team, that has hindered him his entire career.
Top 12 Players in Steelers-Ravens
1. Lamar Jackson
2. T.J. Watt
3. Roquan Smith
4. Kyle Hamilton
5. Derrick Henry
6. Nnamdi Madubuike
7. Patrick Queen
8. Minkah Fitzparick
9. Cameron Heyward
10. Russell Wilson
11. Mark Andrews
12. Najee Harris
Week 11: Steelers 18 – Ravens 16
This was the second, yes second, win for the Steelers this season where they kicked six field goals and scored no touchdowns. Also in this game, Derrick Henry did not carry the ball one time in the fourth quarter. That is asinine. He’s a closer, or at least he should be viewed as a closer. For a Ravens team that has historically been a run-first offense, they signed Henry for a reason. They might as well use him when it matters most, but they didn’t in the first game against Pittsburgh this season.
What to Watch for Saturday afternoon
To me it’s simple. Whichever team wins the line of scrimmage will win this game. Particularly, can the Ravens offensive line get a push against the Steelers defensive line? Because it feels like the exact opposite happens when the Ravens play the Steelers.
The Ravens are second in the NFL with 178.4 rushing yards per game. The Steelers are fourth in the NFL allowing 94.4 rushing yards per game. Something has to give in the matchup on Saturday.
Game Pick: Steelers 23 – Ravens 21
I’m expecting this to be a close game and a war of attrition on Saturday. But I don’t trust Lamar Jackson going up against the Steelers in a marquee game. Russell Wilson and Mike Tomlin have won plenty of marquee games in their respective careers. Now, the two of them will both be a part of this win in a marquee game for the Steelers, which will win them the AFC North.
Sunday Night Football: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-8) – 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Mike Tirico, Cris Collinsworth, Melissa Stark)
Westwood One: Ryan Radtke, Mike Golic
For the second straight season, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are getting hot at the right time. The Buccaneers have won four straight games, including a 40-17 beatdown of the Los Angeles Chargers last week. When healthy and at their best, the Buccaneers can beat any team in the NFL. Need proof? They have wins over the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles this season.
Mayfield has come into his own in his two seasons with the Buccaneers. He’s matured, he’s grown as a player, and he’s leading a Buccaneers offense that’s been without wide receiver Chris Godwin since Week 8. Combine what Tampa Bay is doing on offense with a defense that’s stingy and filled with playmakers in their secondary, and this Buccaneers team cannot be overlooked going into the Playoffs. They still need to hold off the Atlanta Falcons, who trail the Buccaneers by just one game in the NFC South and have the season-sweep over them, but this Buccaneers team looks like not only the team to beat in the division but also one to be reckoned with in the Playoffs.
The Cowboys have won three of their last four games, and that matters. Are they a team to worry about as far as making a comeback and earning a playoff berth? No. But, they are still a team to take notice of. Cooper Rush is steadily leading this offense, and running back Rico Dowdle has really emerged in the second half of the season. Dowdle has three straight games with 110+ rushing yards, including a season-high 149 yards this past week in a win at Carolina.
Unfortunately for Dallas, they’re only 1-6 at home this season. For all the pomp and circumstance that Jerry World presents, it hasn’t helped the Cowboys much this season. This will be the Cowboys third prime time home game this season, and they’ve lost the previous two. But you can’t deny the Cowboys have shown a lot of pride over their last four games. That should continue Sunday night, even against a surging Buccaneers team.
Top 12 Players in Buccaneers-Cowboys
1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Micah Parsons
3. Mike Evans
4. DaRon Bland
5. Antoine Winfield Jr.
6. Tristan Wirfs
7. Lavonte David
8. Baker Mayfield
9. Rico Dowdle
10. Eric Kendricks
11. Bucky Irving
12. Cooper Rush
What to Watch for Sunday night
Tampa Bay’s pass rush is really good. With guys like Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, the Buccaneers have 38 sacks this season. Dallas’s offensive line is not nearly as good as it has been in recent seasons or as good as it was in the 1990s. With Zack Martin on injured reserve- Martin is a seven-time First-Team All-Pro and nine-time Pro Bowler- the Cowboys offensive line has struggled to protect the quarterback. They’ve been good in the running game, but will that be enough on Sunday night?
Game Pick: Buccaneers 27 – Cowboys 20
This game will be close. The Cowboys are playing with pride, and they won’t get embarrassed at home playing in prime time again, right?. But Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers are red hot right now, and I think they will prove to be much for the short-handed Cowboys Sunday night. Once again, the Cowboys will lose at home and fall to 1-7 this season at Jerry World.
Monday Night Football: New Orleans Saints (5-9) @ Green Bay Packers (10-4) – 8:15 p.m. on ESPN and ABC (Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Lisa Salters)
Westwood One: Kevin Harlan, Joe Thomas
The Packers look like a Super Bowl contender. This is a really good team, a really balanced team. They’re going to be a tough matchup for any team in the Playoffs. The Packers rank in the top 10 in yards and scoring… on both sides of the ball. Jordan Love is playing some really good football right now, with seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four games. Love threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers 30-13 win at the Seattle Seahawks last week, proving that he and the Packers are capable of a deep playoff run this season.
On the other side, the New Orleans Saints have had a frustrating season. They started 2-0, scoring 91 points in their first two games. Since then, though, they’re 3-9 and have fired their now former head coach Dennis Allen. Given, the Saints have played hard for interim head coach Darren Rizzi. They’re 3-2 with him leading the team, but they’re undermanned at a lot of key positions. Monday night will be a daunting challenge for the Saints playing at Lambeau Field in late December.
This game should be won by the Packers comfortably. They know what they’re playing for. Could this be a trap game for the Packers? Sure. Any given Monday, in this case, I guess. But the Packers are just on a much higher level talent-wise than the Saints and are playing for something much more meaningful at this point in the season.
Top 12 Players in Saints-Packers
1. Jordan Love
2. Demario Davis
3. Rashan Gary
4. Josh Jacobs
5. Quay Walker
6. Xavier McKinney
7. Tucker Kraft
8. Alvin Kamara
9. Jayden Reed
10. Romeo Doubs
11. Christian Watson
12. Cameron Jordan
What to Watch for Monday night
Josh Jacobs was quietly one of the best free agent signings this offseason. I thought the Packers losing Aaron Jones was going to come back to haunt them this season, but Jacobs has come in and kept the running game churning. Jacobs had over 1,100 yards and 12 touchdowns through 14 games, and he’s running really well right now with nine touchdowns since the Packers Week 10 bye. In the cold on Monday night, Jacobs getting going could put the Saints away early and start the Christmas party early in Green Bay.
Game Pick: Packers 34 – Saints 20
The Packers are playing really well right now. They’re 4-1 since their bye week, with their only loss by three to the Lions in Week 14 on Thursday Night Football in Detroit. Playing at home on Monday Night Football will help the Packers continue their recent momentum and push towards the Playoffs.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 