COLUMBUS, Ohio — For over seven months, we have waited and have sat through an offseason coming off a devastating AFC Championship loss. There’s no worse feeling in the NFL, I believe, than watching the team that beat you in the conference championship play in the Super Bowl.
But here’s the thing: All offseason we’ve had this feeling that this team is in full pursuit of a Super Bowl championship, and everything the front office does is to help this team hoist the franchise’s, and city’s, first Lombardi Trophy.
Now, it’s here. Game week. The Bengals will finally play a football game. All the hype and speculation can now cease. It’s time to start the season. It’s time to start talking matchups, games, in-game decisions, performances, all of it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. on CBS (Ian Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn)
Radio: ESPN1530, 700WLW, 102.7 WEBN (700WLW will cut away for Reds @ Cardinals)
Opening Kickoff Thoughts: For some reason, the Browns have been Joe Burrow’s kryptonite. They’ve also been the Bengals kryptonite, for Cincinnati is just 2-8 in their last 10 games against Cleveland. That includes a five-game losing streak in Cleveland.
I didn’t love this matchup when the schedule came out for that reason. But on the other hand, playing the Browns in week one is about as advantageous as the Bengals could have. Get the game out of the way early. The Browns have a lot of questions. Plus, their record in season-openers since coming home to Cleveland in 1999 is terrible. And while there may be questions surrounding Joe Burrow’s calf, he’s playing, and he’s now playing as the highest-paid player in NFL history. And he’s leading a Bengals team playing with a sense of urgency. With this being the first of two division games to start the season, an 0-3 start in the AFC North, or 0-2 in this case, is simply not an option.
The offensive line has been the Achilles heel against the Browns in the last five years. With Joe Burrow under center, that has especially been the case. Burrow has been sacked four or more times in four of five games against the Browns. But with the offseason addition of Orlando Brown Jr., the hope is the Bengals can keep Myles Garrett contained.
Key matchups: There’s no question this game will be decided in the trenches. Obviously, the biggest question is can the Bengals offensive line protect Joe Burrow against the Browns defensive line. The Browns defense will be coordinated by Jim Schwartz this year, and Schwartz is no doubt one of the best defensive coordinators and coaches of this generation.
The Bengals offensive line improved nicely over the course of the 2022 season. After surrendering 13 sacks over the first two games, the Bengals only allowed 28 over the final 14 games. And what really stood out to me is how strong the interior became. Ted Karras, Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson, who weren’t even on the team in 2021, formed a nice trio inside. Orlando Brown Jr. is the highest paid left tackle in the NFL, so we know he’s going be a potential stalwart of this offense. The question is can Jonah Williams settle in at right tackle? The first draft pick of Zac Taylor’s tenure in 2019, Williams has had an up and down career so far. It remains to be seen how moving to right tackle will impact him at this point in his career, and he’ll face his fair share of elite pass rushers this season. Williams is the biggest wild card on this Bengals offensive line, and he’s coming off a torn ACL that ended his season in the Wild Card round of the Playoffs.
Bengals offense vs. Browns defense: This could be the best offense the Bengals have had with Joe Burrow. Their trio of wide receivers is still here, Joe Mixon is still here, their offensive line, on paper, is as strong as it has been since Burrow was drafted. That said, the Bengals offense has struggled against the Browns defense. In every game Burrow has played against Cleveland, the Browns have forced at least one turnover. It’s not just that Myles Garrett can wreck whatever gameplan the Bengals have. The Browns have forced turnovers in the past five games that have changed the games. From interceptions in the end zone (Denzel Ward’s 100-yard pick six) to fumbles, the Browns defense has proven to be very opportunistic against the Bengals. Taking care of the football will be paramount to success for the Bengals offense.
Bengals defense vs. Browns offense: The Bengals defense has struggled against the Browns offense for the last five years. For as great of a defensive coordinator as Lou Anarumo is, he hasn’t had a consistent answer for Browns running back Nick Chubb. Chubb has been a beast against the Bengals, with five 100-yard rushing games and three games with multiple touchdown runs.
In addition, there always seems to be a receiver who goes off on the Bengals secondary. Last year it was Aamri Cooper on Monday Night Football. In 2021 and 2020, it was Donovan Peoples-Jones. Needless to say, the Browns offense has come alive against the Bengals in recent years.
The two regular-season games last year are a stark contrast from one another. In the first game, the Bengals were without run-stopper extraordinaire D.J. Reader and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie tore his ACL. Cam Taylor-Britt took Awuzie’s place, and he was lost the whole night. The second game, though, Reader played and held Nick Chubb to just 34 rushing yards, and Taylor-Britt made some great plays on Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper down the stretch.
Browns offense vs. Bengals defense: Cleveland has been able to run up the score, and the stats, against the Bengals defense, going over 400 yards three times and 30 points five times. In those games, most of them with former quarterback Baker Mayfield, the Browns were able to balance their offense with a power running game and precision passing. Now with dual-threat quarterback DeShaun Watson, the Browns are hoping he can return to his 2020 form, combine with Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper and form a potent offense.
Browns defense vs. Bengals offense: Cleveland’s defense matches up well with the Bengals offense. The Browns pass rush is one of the best in the NFL, led by the viscously great Myles Garrett. In addition, their secondary has made life rough for the Bengals receivers, making life rough on offense overall. The Browns defense will give up yards and chunk plays, but they do a great job of eliminating the big plays and points on the board.
Opposing Quarterback Thoughts: DeShaun Watson – Where to begin. He’s certainly one of the most polarizing players in the NFL. And I really don’t know what version of Watson we’re going to get. Will we get the 2022 version that completed just 58 percent of his passes in his six starts with only seven touchdowns? Or, will we get the 2020 version that was a top-10, MVP candidate that threw for almost 5,000 yards, 33 TD, just seven INT and completed 70 percent of his passes with 10 300-yard passing games. Against the Bengals in 2020, Watson was 24 of 33 for 324 yards and three touchdowns.
Keys to the game:
1. Protect. the. Franchise. No further explanation needed, Your Honor.
2. Spread the Browns out. The Bengals need to come out and spread the Browns out. Get each of the receivers involved. Come out swinging. And here’s the thing: the Bengals have done that against the Browns. In the last four games the Bengals have played against the Browns, the Bengals have driven deep into Browns territory in three of those games. All three of those drives ended with interceptions in the end zone or red zone, completely changing the game. But still, all they need to is execute when they come out throwing. Get a score on their first possession. Make the Browns play from behind.
3. Be fundamentally sound defensively. Obviously, shutting down Nick Chubb is a key component to this game. However, they have to be fundamentally sound all around. They’re facing a dual-threat quarterback. That means this Browns offense has more ways to attack the Bengals defense. It’s not just about staying in your gaps when it comes to stopping the run, it’s about the Bengals defensive backs not letting the Browns receivers beat them. In the past 10 matchups, the Browns have been the more fundamentally sound team. The Bengals were that team in their week 14 win over Cleveland last year, and they’ll need to be so again on Sunday, especially on the road.
Where this game will be decided: As with every AFC North game, this game will be won in the trenches. The Bengals have gotten gashed on both sides of the trenches in their past 10 matchups with the Browns, including the five they have played since Joe Burrow was drafted in 2020. If they want to avoid a second straight 0-1 start, and their third in Burrow’s first four seasons, they will need to win the battle in the trenches.
Game prediction: Bengals 23 Browns 17
I’m expecting a physical battle in this one. That means cliché keys will win this game: ball security, stopping the run and capitalizing on opportunities. I believe the Bengals will do just that, Joe Burrow will not commit a turnover, the Bengals will nab a key takeaway and a late defensive stand will win the Bengals their first game in Cleveland since 2017.
Let me be Frank and Cut to the Chase 